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Tropical Major Hurricane Maria

Her small core has definitely been affected by Dominica. Once she exits there's still a window of opportunity for restrengthening but she's going to be in a whole different environment than Irma was once she crossed the islands to the north. The gulf atm is just off limits as long as that ridge is in place. In the short term she really has no place to go but towards the northern Antilles. Once she gets/if north of there in 2-3 days then things get a little more complex and a lot can happen. Once again, as with Irma we're not dealing with very prominent features to pull this thing OTS. There's nothing really strong down the pipe atm that convinces me of an OTS track. Without the presence of a really dominant steering feature all bets are off imo.
 
Took a significant north turn across the Dominica, taking the "longest" path across the island but she's about to emerge off the NW coast now
 
I'm not ruling out a US hit until at least it clears Hispanola on Thursday... right now I'm about 50/50 on it

Still think even if it recurves its gonna be real close to the OBX

I have my doubts about Jose but it wouldn't take much to still recurve but at the same time I wanna see how far southwest she gets by Thursday too
 
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Gonna be in Jersey City, NJ next week.. could be a little windy and wet!
 
metwannabe said:
Took a significant north turn across the Dominica, taking the "longest" path across the island but she's about to emerge off the NW coast now
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Think that jog caught recon off guard also. looked like they were aiming for the SW side of the island and had to make a last minute go around to come back at it from the NE lol.
 
00z GFS has Jose holding on longer so far. Maria takes the Northward turn, but ridging and Jose being quite a ways from her is making me nervous.
 
GFS going north of Puerto Rico again, does anyone really believe this is realistic??

okay that's a lot of ridging at 162 and Jose seems far away and a non-factor

oh magically a path to recurve opens at 180 :rolleyes:
 
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Brent said:
GFS going north of Puerto Rico again, does anyone really believe this is realistic??

okay that's a lot of ridging at 162 and Jose seems far away and a non-factor

oh magically a path to recurve opens at 180 :rolleyes:
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I can't see how it will be north of PR
 
The 0Z GEFS is even less threatening than the pretty nonthreatening 18Z GEFS with very few landfalling members at most. Mr. Jose is setting himself up for a great opportunity to be a hero for the SE coast. It it still early but seeing these last 2 GEFS runs as well as the last EPS run is certainly encouraging and is keeping the worry level way down right now.
 
From pro-met "Alyono" at Storm2K, who I think gives a good current take on Maria's future track:

"models are hinting that the building ridge may not matter. May be enough of a weakness to allow this to stay safely off the east coast. I'd say this is the most likely scenario. Jose may have to scoot far to the east in order for this to hit now (of course, the models do seem to be trending Jose to the east)"
 
UKMET OTS too, I think I'm slowly coming around but I'm still giving it a couple of days.

although it initializes with Jose "strong" and Maria "moderate";)

At least it looks like there's a fall front next week, its about time
 
The 0Z GEPS has 3 members hit the SE US, including one hitting Miami before moving up the spine similar to Irma. However, the 3 is a good bit lower than the # of hits from the 12Z GEPS...so less threatening than its prior run.

Well, we're not too far from when the King gives us his opinion to cap off the late night model barrage. Any guesses? I can't wait til DST ends lol. There should be a law that DST has to cease immediately once the active part of the tropical season starts lol.
 
Reports on facebook of total devestation at Dominica. Every roof TORN OFF. this was posted by the PM on facebook. Prayers...
Initial reports are of widespread devastation. So far we have lost all what money can buy and replace. My greatest fear for the morning is that we will wake to news of serious physical injury and possible deaths as a result of likely landslides triggered by persistent rains.

So, far the winds have swept away the roofs of almost every person I have spoken to or otherwise made contact with. The roof to my own official residence was among the first to go and this apparently triggered an avalanche of torn away roofs in the city and the countryside.

Come tomorrow morning we will hit the road, as soon as the all clear is given, in search of the injured and those trapped in the rubble.

I am honestly not preoccupied with physical damage at this time, because it is devastating...indeed, mind boggling. My focus now is in rescuing the trapped and securing medical assistance for the injured.

We will need help, my friend, we will need help of all kinds.

It is too early to speak of the condition of the air and seaports, but I suspect both will be inoperable for a few days. That is why I am eager now to solicit the support of friendly nations and organisations with helicopter services, for I personally am eager to get up and get around the country to see and determine what's needed.
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down to 155, below a 5 for now

Pressure was up to 946 mb(21 mb rise) the first pass then dropped to 943 before recon left
 
Looking good, folks! The 0Z Euro recurves Maria and she doesn't get closer to the SE US coast than about 400 miles, which is off NC. Thank you, Jose (well, hopefully).
 
It's definitely OTS now; all models agree. All the ridge is going to do is slow it down on as it follows Jose.


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