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Tropical Major Hurricane Maria

GeorgiaGirl said:
It's not really scientifically based at all, but I'm simply not buying at all the idea of Jose staying a weak hurricane for as long as the models suggest...if he's a moderate TS or weaker in the next 1-2 days we're going to see some shifting west if/when the models figure it out (perhaps still enough to keep Maria away from the US)...and even still, this hurricane is going to affect countries that DON'T need it at all.

But this has been the season that goes against typical, so maybe Jose does do this and Maria stays off shore for us...
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The fact the ensemble suites agree is a good sign. I just looked back over the ensembles, and the GFS only had one member getting into the Southeast. The Canadian had a few more, but it's the Canadian. Here is where we are at currently ensemble wise:

Canadian:
15_L_geps_12z.png


Euro:
AL15_2017091800_ECENS_large.png



GFS:
AL15_2017091818_GEFS_large.png
 
Started to say im sure there are people out there from the islands, Puerto Rico or maybe traveling that may read our post. How long has it been since Puerto Rico took a direct hit from a Maj hurricane?
 
Hurricane Maria Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
935 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017

...MARIA MAKES LANDFALL ON DOMINICA AS A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...

Radar data from Martinique and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft reports indicate that Maria made landfall on Dominica
around 915 PM AST (0115 UTC) with estimated winds of 160 MPH
(260 KM/H).

The next update will be the 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC) complete advisory
package.

SUMMARY OF 935 PM AST...0135 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 61.3W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM SE OF DOMINICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...924 MB...27.29 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown
 
stormcentral said:
Started to say im sure there are people out there from the islands, Puerto Rico or maybe traveling that may read our post. How long has it been since Puerto Rico took a direct hit from a Maj hurricane?
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Jose is looking very much a mess tonight, is the beginning of it's demise? Certainly hope not but he's looking sick not too much like the protector of the east coast at the moment.... who knows what tomorrow's 12z model runs will bring with Maria's track
 
metwannabe said:
Jose is looking very much a mess tonight, is the beginning of it's demise? Certainly hope not but he's looking sick not too much like the protector of the east coast at the moment.... who knows what tomorrow's 12z model runs will bring with Maria's track
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It won't take much of a weakness to keep her ots.


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The Navgem has an upper lvl low over the se that the other models don't have.


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BHS1975 said:
The Navgem has an upper lvl low over the se that the other models don't have.


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The one that eventually tugged Irma to Tennessee , was off and on the models and finally stayed on models about 2-4 days out!
 
The signal of a possible upper level low has been on the GFS ensembles, but most of the members agree that Jose would have more influence over Maria than the upper level low. In other words, we would need it to be much stronger if it exists at all.
 
Shawn said:
The signal of a possible upper level low has been on the GFS ensembles, but most of the members agree that Jose would have more influence over Maria than the upper level low. In other words, we would need it to be much stronger if it exists at all.
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This is exactly why I can't board on the OTS train yet. We've been down this road before with Irma at roughly the same time frame and we saw how that went for us. There's just too many ?s and headaches wrt Jose to make sense of and whether or not this ULL will become a more prominent/stronger feature in future model runs/ensembles.

Speaking of Maria, I'm away for about 5 hours and come back to a Cat. 5 BEAST?! Jeebus! I don't know if Maria is reaching her peak before PR, but is it possible she could get down as low as 900mb by that point? Assuming Maria avoids an ERC between now and then.
 
The flooding from where the surge is meeting what has to be flash flooding coming down mtns as high as 4,000 ft has to be epic on the east side of this island atm.
 
Weatherlover92 said:
This is exactly why I can't board on the OTS train yet. We've been down this road before with Irma at roughly the same time frame and we saw how that went for us. There's just too many ?s and headaches wrt Jose to make sense of and whether or not this ULL will become a more prominent/stronger feature in future model runs/ensembles.

Speaking of Maria, I'm away for about 5 hours and come back to a Cat. 5 BEAST?! Jeebus! I don't know if Maria is reaching her peak before PR, but is it possible she could get down as low as 900mb by that point? Assuming Maria avoids an ERC between now and then.
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I do not think we will get below 900 millibars in the entire life of Maria. The sea temperatures aren't bad, but eyewall replacement cycle (which we just can't forecast) is bound to happen sooner than later, along with land interaction with the higher mountains over Dominica (enough to likely disrupt her strengthening).

With that said, I am not sure of the tropical cyclone intensity celiling in her current area. Webber would be the better one to ask about that.
 
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