ForsythSnow
Moderator
That's an interesting yet horrific solution. Hits all the islands and then crosses Florida and hits MS.
That's an interesting yet horrific solution. Hits all the islands and then crosses Florida and hits MS.
Definitely looks good right now. Should be interesting to watch over the next several days.looking at satellite this already looks like Maria, I don't think it'll be a "potential" anything long
Also moving very quickly west
FWIW at this early stage, the last 3 runs of the GFS have kept it on the east coast but offer differing solutions at approximately the same time (backing down from 228 to adjust) ... in other words, way too early to start forecasting ...
OZ
6Z
12Z
Yeah but the big difference here is the weakness is much further southeast than it was during Irma, it makes a difference when the upper level trough is over the FL peninsula as opposed to the north-central Gulf coast. Barring a lot of land interaction with Hispaniola and Cuba leading to nearly complete disintegration of TD 15, odds are this storm wont end up tracking much further west than Irma but an easy out to sea solution way to the east is very unlikely unless Jose is still lingering in the western AtlanticEuro north of hispanola
I'm having Irma flashbacks
Yeah, the UKMET was best from what I saw. I feel like throwing any solution beyond 180 hours in the trash because that seems to have been when the euro went between OTS and Florida, and each run was different. Also, until Jose is either looping or gone, anything is possible.Guys, use what we learned from Irma. UKMET and Euro were very good with it and I'm basically ignoring most GFS solutions (other than ensemble trends) this far out.