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Tropical Major Hurricane Maria

SD said:
Definitely influenced by Jose. Could make a hard left though

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It's a tough call. It is already being influenced by the upper level disturbance near it. Who knows, it could sling Jose toward land too.
gfs_z500_vort_watl_37.png
 
GaWx said:
So, the last 3 GFS runs have 932, 937, & 927 mb just off the SE coast (N FL to NC) even after sig interaction with Hisp. and with pretty high background press to the N. The 6 strongest on record that I found there with similar tracks & which all had limited or no Hisp. interaction were these:

1898: 938 mb http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1898/7/track.gif

1954 (Hazel): 938 mb https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Hazel

1985 (Gloria): 942 mb http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1985/GLORIA/track.gif

1989 (Hugo): 934 mb http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1989/HUGO/track.gif

1999 (Floyd): 935 mb http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1999/FLOYD/track.gif

2016 (Matthew): 938 mb http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2016/MATTHEW/track.gif

Even Andrew with near perfect conditions/no Hisp well south of these only got down to 922 mb. More realistically based on analogs IF this has Hisp interaction would be in the 950s at the lowest imo. Now if Hisp interaction turns out minimal, then I could see 930s just off of N FL to NC and 920s off of S FL.
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What did all 6 of the above post season peak very strong Hs have in common? Cold ENSO (mainly weak): 3 cold neut, 2 weak Nina, and 1 mod Nina.

To add post peak very strong (cat 4) S FL hits from the E or SE:
1926 #7 930 mb: cold neut http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1926/7/track.gif
1928 #4: 929 mb cold neut http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1928/4/track.gif
1945 #9: 949 mb cold neut http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1945/9/track.gif
1947 #4: 943 mb cold neut http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1947/4/track.gif
1950 King 955 mb weak Nina http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1950/KING/track.gif

Also:
Gracie of 1959 950 mb: cold neut http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1959/GRACIE/track.gif

So, all 6 of these additional ones were during weak cold ENSO. We're now in weak cold ENSO.

So, 11 of the 12 were during weak cold ENSO & the other was mod Nino.
 
metwannabe said:
Many ots on the 18z gefs...
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Although an east coast hit is quite possible, if not likely assuming Jose doesn't linger, climo does say that an ots track in just over a week would be more likely than it was for the two week earlier Irma's time on a strictly climo/history basis all other things being equal. So, I'm not dismissing this as unrealistic. But, that's just climo and the forecast for strong NE US centered ridging in about a week is not your average late Sep NE US setup and would thus limit the chance for a safe recurve to well below the average chance for late September again assuming Jose isn't then lingering. I want to first see if there really is going to be strong NE US ridging then setting up and also holding for a few days (this is looking likely based on model consensus) without Jose nearby (this is the iffy part) before getting all that worried. It currently being weak cold ENSO is somewhat of a negative for recurvature possibilities vs all ENSO combined for late September.
 
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