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Tropical Major Hurricane Maria

accu35 said:
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CMC
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That's an interesting yet horrific solution. Hits all the islands and then crosses Florida and hits MS.
 
FWIW at this early stage, the last 3 runs of the GFS have kept it on the east coast but offer differing solutions at approximately the same time (backing down from 228 to adjust) ... in other words, way too early to start forecasting ...

OZ

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6Z

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12Z

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looking at satellite this already looks like Maria, I don't think it'll be a "potential" anything long

Also moving very quickly west
 
pcbjr said:
FWIW at this early stage, the last 3 runs of the GFS have kept it on the east coast but offer differing solutions at approximately the same time (backing down from 228 to adjust) ... in other words, way too early to start forecasting ...

OZ

0_Z_at_228.png


6Z

6_Z.png


12Z

12_Z.png
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So, the last 3 GFS runs have 932, 937, & 927 mb just off the SE coast (N FL to NC) even after sig interaction with Hisp. and with pretty high background press to the N. The 6 strongest on record that I found there with similar tracks & which all had limited or no Hisp. interaction were these:

1898: 938 mb http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1898/7/track.gif

1954 (Hazel): 938 mb https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Hazel

1985 (Gloria): 942 mb http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1985/GLORIA/track.gif

1989 (Hugo): 934 mb http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1989/HUGO/track.gif

1999 (Floyd): 935 mb http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1999/FLOYD/track.gif

2016 (Matthew): 938 mb http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2016/MATTHEW/track.gif

Even Andrew with near perfect conditions/no Hisp well south of these only got down to 922 mb. More realistically based on analogs IF this has Hisp interaction would be in the 950s at the lowest imo. Now if Hisp interaction turns out minimal, then I could see 930s just off of N FL to NC and 920s off of S FL.
 
12Z Euro has Jose lingering close enough to protect the SE US? With the Euro back to this scenario, it can't be discounted.
 
Brent said:
Euro north of hispanola

I'm having Irma flashbacks
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Yeah but the big difference here is the weakness is much further southeast than it was during Irma, it makes a difference when the upper level trough is over the FL peninsula as opposed to the north-central Gulf coast. Barring a lot of land interaction with Hispaniola and Cuba leading to nearly complete disintegration of TD 15, odds are this storm wont end up tracking much further west than Irma but an easy out to sea solution way to the east is very unlikely unless Jose is still lingering in the western Atlantic
 
Guys, use what we learned from Irma. UKMET and Euro were very good with it and I'm basically ignoring most GFS solutions (other than ensemble trends) this far out.
 
Yea the Euro is going for a very rare fujiwhara off the eastern seaboard between Maria and Jose, that would only making the steeeing flow infinitely more complicated than it already is going to be after this passes by the Greater Antilles. Even if Jose lingers over the western Atlantic, these binary interactions are highly non linear and vey unpredictable and it's still possible we could end up seeing at least one (either Jose or Maria) hitting the US
 
Remember how much the Irma track shifted west in the last 4-5 days before it hit Cuba , on a lot of the models ? From a Mid Atlantic hit , to a Miami hit? Very thought to track and even at go time, it was going further an further west ? This stuff is very frustrating to to track! I'm pulling for the the weak tropical storm into FL and bring me some more rain! The 2" from Irma was great and needed, but with mid 80s for 15 days plus and zero rain, for atleast that long, it's already very dry again! Saw a brush fire today along interstate 85 about the size of half a football field! :(
Still very dry
 
Yeah the track for Irma shifted west considerably largely because of the unexpected development of Katia in the Bay of Campeche that deposited excess outflow and heat into the subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic... It could certainly shift west a lot again if Maria hits Hispaniola and Cuba but there's a limit considering where the placement of the weakness in the subtropical high is here
 
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Shawn said:
Guys, use what we learned from Irma. UKMET and Euro were very good with it and I'm basically ignoring most GFS solutions (other than ensemble trends) this far out.
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Yeah, the UKMET was best from what I saw. I feel like throwing any solution beyond 180 hours in the trash because that seems to have been when the euro went between OTS and Florida, and each run was different. Also, until Jose is either looping or gone, anything is possible.
 
I looked back to 1851 and couldn't find even one H that moved into the SE US from the SE or E with a TS+ lingering not too far to the north like Jose has done on 2 of the last 3 Euros. Of course, that makes sense from a met angle as a weakness not too far to the north will not allow for W to NW steering to bring a TC W to NW into the SE. So, IF Jose lingers like those 2 Euros show, I'd agree with the Euro idea of protecting the SE.
 
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