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Tropical Major Hurricane Maria

GaWx said:
I looked back to 1851 and couldn't find even one H that moved into the SE US from the SE or E with a TS+ lingering not too far to the north like Jose has done on 2 of the last 3 Euros. Of course, that makes sense from a met angle as a weakness not too far to the north will not allow for W to NW steering to bring a TC W to NW into the SE. So, IF Jose lingers like those 2 Euros show, I'd agree with the Euro idea of protecting the SE.
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Yeah at least protecting us from Maria but even if Jose is there and allows Maria to pass out to see there's still an outside risk to the upper southeast (Carolinas) & points northward from Jose because the binary interaction with Maria would actually force Jose southwestward
 
Already looks to be on the way to Hurricane Maria
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GaWx said:
The 12Z EPS has only ~10 of 50 members having Jose linger. That's our best hope for protection. Otherwise, there are lots of hits from S FL to NC and even 2 that go way out into the GOM.
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Well, the higher resolution operational is hopefully better in this scenario.. since the control run is at a lower resolution the members come off of.
 
Oh boy, up to 50 mph now and it looks like a major is now in the forecast.

INIT 16/2100Z 12.3N 52.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 13.0N 54.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 13.9N 56.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 14.6N 58.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 15.2N 59.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 19/1800Z 16.5N 62.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 20/1800Z 17.9N 65.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 21/1800Z 19.5N 68.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
 
Wow that's a bullish forecast but makes sense

Hurricane tomorrow and major hurricane for Puerto Rico mid week

:weenie::weenie::weenie:
 
Could Maria become large like Irma? Seem like this storm is fairly growing large.
 
Here we go again. Don't like the track of this one. NC has been lucky so far. That luck might be running out.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Here we go again. Don't like the track of this one. NC has been lucky so far. That luck might be running out.
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This one has OBX written all over it depending on what Jose does up there.
 
Man the GFS just missed Hispaniola. That would no doubt disturb the system . Will be enteresting to watch and see how that plays out
 
Gfs has been trending away from hispanola today the euro and ukmet are already almost north
 
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