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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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the winds may be down a bit(earlier the NHC hinted at that), but the pressure is still dropping apparently
 
Pay up! lol
roduct: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 7th day of the month at 0:15Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF99-5309
Storm Number & Year: 11 in 2017
Storm Name: Irma (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 15
Observation Number: 03 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )
A. Time of Center Fix: 7th day of the month at 0:00:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 19°05'N 66°02'W (19.0833N 66.0333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 47 statute miles (75 km) to the N (2°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (U.S.).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,332m (7,651ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 144kts (~ 165.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 9 nautical miles (10 statute miles) to the SE (131°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 231° at 147kts (From the SW at ~ 169.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 9 nautical miles (10 statute miles) to the SE (131°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 916mb (27.05 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,046m (9,993ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11°C (52°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape: Concentric (has an inner and outer eye)
M. Inner Eye Diameter: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles)
M. Outer Eye Diameter: 42 nautical miles (48 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 147kts (~ 169.2mph) which was observed 9 nautical miles to the SE (131°) from the flight level center at 23:57:30Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 335° at 6kts (From the NNW at 7mph)
 
pcbjr said:
East again - will it last? Call me Doubting Thomas ...
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I hoping it goes west or out to sea but nonetheless I'm prepared
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Irma's gaining latitude pretty good atm, I know it's on a wnw motion but almost a little north or wnw... I guess it should bend back west later tonight if not it may pass just north of NHC forecast point. It's minor I know but just observation since I haven't been able to really follow it today, I'm way behind
 
Come on guys there's a banter thread for a reason. ;)

Just catching up but still looks like a South Carolina hit for the GFS? Has anyone looked at the CMC?
 
Brent said:
it seems to me the 0z models shift east and everyone thinks theres an east trend

then the 12z models shift west and everyone thinks theres a west trend

and repeat
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Yeah probably just noise at this point, the wobbles north and south of the eye probably mess them up north and south.
 
CMC initialized at 989 or something like that. I thought that was pretty wild for a fairly reliable model to be off that much.
 
I don't think the CMC is really worth looking at but it was Miami than a North Carolina landfall...big shift from looking completely lost at 0z but it still initialized wrong...but even still I thought it was going to go OTS at first after Miami.
 
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