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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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NAM stops at 84 and is probably useless after 48 (18z especially) but it looked like it would've been OTS if you continued it or a NC/MA landfall.
 
Thankful if it misses florida and goes east or west. Talk about model madness some people arent even evacuating until friday when the track becomes more certain which is concerning. One hours it is trending east then west. CRAZY
 
Model madness? Nonsense? Too big of a storm for the computers to "understand"? The latter is the answer to the rhetorical question(s) in MHO. But if you want to visualize the confusion, open this link and click days 5, 6, and 7 on each current model (at the top) and hopefully it speaks for itself ... ;)

https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/
 
stormcentral said:
Thankful if it misses florida and goes east or west. Talk about model madness some people arent even evacuating until friday when the track becomes more certain which is concerning. One hours it is trending east then west. CRAZY
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They are going east and west too much, but I feel that the area they are wobbling is the path. I expect another west shift for the east shifting models at 0z and an east shift for the west shifting models, but I expect the same Miami or not Miami path to the spine of Florida to just offshore to Brunswick to Charleston and at most Myrtle Beach SC.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Hurricane Irma has been a 185 mph category 5 hurricane for 33 straight hours now, it's the longest lived storm of 160 knots (or greater) in history and its halfway to becoming the longest lived category 5 hurricane on record. Just let all of that sink in
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Webb, It is and thanks!
 
Looks like they are still mostly showing a SE Florida hit and then near the GA/SC border and Charleston. I think if there has been a trend today, that's it.
 
Webberweather53 said:
0z models are a tick east...
View attachment 1122

Irma is also tracking about 15-20 miles northeast of its forecast points...
View attachment 1123

Neither of these trends are good news for the Carolinas... We'll see how this evolves in the next few days.
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A tick NW would likely mean we see little to no interaction with land until US landfall, which means Irma stays a cat 5 more than likely.
 
ForsythSnow said:
A tick NW would likely mean we see little to no interaction with land until US landfall, which means Irma stays a cat 5 more than likely.
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Yeah it means Irma would stay a category 5 hurricane longer, if it remains a category 5 for another 39 hours it would set a record as the longest lived category 5 on record in the Atlantic, we're already halfway there, unbelievable. Once Irma turns northward it would likely lose some intensity as interacts with an ULL to its west over the mid-south and Gulf coast, which will provide some southwesterly shear that Irma will have to contend with in addition to some dry air that could penetrate the core. Even still, Irma could be a category 4 hurricane when it reaches the Carolinas and GA.
 
SD said:
Where's the milk and bread..... wait wrong season

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
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Exactly! I have never lost power with any snowstorm or ice storm. I guarantee you if this hurricane hits South Carolina I will be without power for two weeks...


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ForsythSnow said:
A tick NW would likely mean we see little to no interaction with land until US landfall, which means Irma stays a cat 5 more than likely.
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Unlikely it would stay a 5 as it is very tough to stay there this long and encountering some predicted shear by Saturday, plus gaining latitude cools the water a little. If it comes to N SCAR or NC, will like come in as a strong 4 IMO, which is plenty bad enough.
 
MichaelJ said:
Unlikely it would stay a 5 as it is very tough to stay there this long and encountering some predicted shear by Saturday, plus gaining latitude cools the water a little. If it comes to N SCAR or NC, will like come in as a strong 4 IMO, which is plenty bad enough.
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What I meant to say was if the landfall was South Florida. I know it can't remain a 5 beyond there, but the waters are getting warmer the further Irma goes until the Bahamas. After that, it is cooler.
 
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