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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

Discussion in 'Tropical Weather' started by Snowfan, Aug 26, 2017.

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  1. Snowfan

    Snowfan Member

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    The GFS and the Euro has been developing this wave and has been mentioned by the NHC.
    A tropical wave over western Africa is forecast to emerge over the
    far eastern Atlantic Ocean on Sunday. Environmental conditions are
    forecast to be conducive for slow development by the middle of next
    week while the wave moves westward about 20 mph.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...0 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
     
  2. Snowfan

    Snowfan Member

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    A tropical wave over western Africa is forecast to emerge over the
    far eastern Atlantic Ocean on Sunday. Environmental conditions may
    be conducive for slow development by the middle of next week while
    the wave moves westward about 20 mph.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
     
  3. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorology Student

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  4. Snowfan

    Snowfan Member

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    A tropical wave over western Africa is forecast to emerge over the
    far eastern Atlantic Ocean tonight or early Monday. Environmental
    conditions appear to be conducive for slow development by the middle
    of next week while the wave moves westward about 15 to 20 mph.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
     
  5. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorology Student

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    The Euro's consistency with this wave has been nothing short of remarkable. For at least the past 15 runs in a row (if not more) the Euro has developed this AEW into a TC in some, way, shape or form this week in the east-central Atlantic, with more recent runs obviously becoming more aggressive with its future in the western Atlantic.
    [​IMG]
     
  6. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorology Student

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    NHC raising the odds of development to 40% in the next 5 days...
    1. A tropical wave located near the coast of western Africa is
    producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
    Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development
    of this system while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph over the
    tropical Atlantic during the next several days.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
     
  7. Brent

    Brent Member

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    Long way out and I'd probably bet on ots but the euro ensembles look interesting

    [​IMG]
     
  8. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorology Student

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    Damn Ventrice is already trying to go all in...
    Screen Shot 2017-08-27 at 8.25.39 PM.png
     
  9. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

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    ^ I may be remembering incorrectly, but didn't Mike V. earlier in August say that he thought early Sept would be quiet due to MJO and/or the lack of a CCKW?
    Like Brent, I'm thinking recurve likely east of the CONUS as of now.
     
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  10. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorology Student

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    The eastern MDR SSTs have caught fire thanks to prolonged anomalous westerly winds in the wake of an MJO pulse now over the IO which is evolving into a quasi-stationary wave...

    cdas-sflux_ssta_atltropics_1.png
     
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  11. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorology Student

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  12. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorology Student

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  13. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorology Student

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    Chances for development in the next 5 days up to 50%
    1. A tropical wave located near the coast of western Africa is
    producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
    conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development of
    this system while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph over the
    tropical Atlantic during the next several days.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
     
  14. Snowfan

    Snowfan Member

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  15. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorology Student

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    Looks like we have Invest 93L
    AL, 93, 2017082806, , BEST, 0, 120N, 195W, 25, 1009, DB.
     
  16. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorology Student

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    NHC has raised the chances of TCG to 70% in the next 5 days
    1. A tropical wave and associated low pressure area located just
    offshore of the coast of western Africa is producing a large area of
    showers and thunderstorms. This system has become better organized
    since yesterday, and a tropical depression could form in a few days
    over the eastern Atlantic. The low is forecast to move westward at
    15 to 20 mph over the tropical Atlantic during the next several
    days. Regardless of development, heavy rain is possible in
    portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Wednesday.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
     
  17. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorology Student

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  18. DadOfJax

    DadOfJax Member

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    Early signs point to a fish...but we shall see.
     
  19. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorology Student

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    93L floater imagery is up on the NHC's page...
    [​IMG]
     
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  20. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

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    That escalated quickly. Maybe this will be our first storm to form way out there.
     
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  21. WeatherWatch

    WeatherWatch Member

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    If this look holds true though, it will be hard for a storm to come close to the EC. As always, still worth the watch, every TC is.
    [​IMG]

    Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
     
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  22. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorology Student

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    NHC continues to raise the odds of development for 93L... Now up to 80% in the next 5 days....

    1. A tropical wave and associated low pressure area located a few
    hundred miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing
    disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
    are conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form
    in two or three days over the eastern Atlantic. The low is forecast
    to move westward at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical Atlantic during
    the next several days. Regardless of development, heavy rain is
    possible in portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Wednesday.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
     
  23. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

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    HWRF and HMON really liking fast formation.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  24. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorology Student

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    Yeah, I think they're developing this unrealistically too fast, it may be best for us to wait until an actual center forms before we place much credence into the higher resolution hurricane models like the HWRF & HMON... It's a large, broad AEW that will take at least 2-3 days to consolidate into a tropical depression/minimal TS, however conditions appear at least marginally conducive for some gradual development in the eastern Atlantic before they become even more favorable as it nears the longitude of the Antilles.
     
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  25. metwannabe

    metwannabe Staff Member Moderator Supporter

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    Euro getting this thing pretty far west....should turn ots in time but still

    [​IMG]
     
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  26. Brent

    Brent Member

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    Euro says might need more coffee lmao

    there is a trough in the east though
     
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  27. metwannabe

    metwannabe Staff Member Moderator Supporter

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    Yeah that is one deep trough and it should protect the EC but dang.....
    [​IMG]
     
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  28. Brent

    Brent Member

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    That's one huge ridge too gonna be a battle

    I forsee some long nights ahead
     
  29. metwannabe

    metwannabe Staff Member Moderator Supporter

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    Good point, if that battle slows that trough down then.....dang not a good week to try to kick the caffeine habit
     
  30. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

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    All 3 of those features are strong per that frame. We have a powerful fall trough with a strong high and a strong hurricane there. It is a bit far out, but I feel confident in that trough existing at a relative time to that. What I lack confidence in is of course the storm. It could be sent further south, into the Caribbean and result in the trough missing it and it going elsewhere, or it could get picked up elsewhere dependent on the high size. Too far out but interesting to look at.
     
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