Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
- Status
the winds may be down a bit(earlier the NHC hinted at that), but the pressure is still dropping apparently
Pay up! lol
roduct: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 7th day of the month at 0:15Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF99-5309
Storm Number & Year: 11 in 2017
Storm Name: Irma (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 15
Observation Number: 03 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )
A. Time of Center Fix: 7th day of the month at 0:00:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 19°05'N 66°02'W (19.0833N 66.0333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 47 statute miles (75 km) to the N (2°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (U.S.).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,332m (7,651ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 144kts (~ 165.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 9 nautical miles (10 statute miles) to the SE (131°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 231° at 147kts (From the SW at ~ 169.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 9 nautical miles (10 statute miles) to the SE (131°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 916mb (27.05 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,046m (9,993ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11°C (52°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape: Concentric (has an inner and outer eye)
M. Inner Eye Diameter: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles)
M. Outer Eye Diameter: 42 nautical miles (48 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 147kts (~ 169.2mph) which was observed 9 nautical miles to the SE (131°) from the flight level center at 23:57:30Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 335° at 6kts (From the NNW at 7mph)
roduct: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 7th day of the month at 0:15Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF99-5309
Storm Number & Year: 11 in 2017
Storm Name: Irma (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 15
Observation Number: 03 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )
A. Time of Center Fix: 7th day of the month at 0:00:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 19°05'N 66°02'W (19.0833N 66.0333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 47 statute miles (75 km) to the N (2°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (U.S.).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,332m (7,651ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 144kts (~ 165.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 9 nautical miles (10 statute miles) to the SE (131°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 231° at 147kts (From the SW at ~ 169.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 9 nautical miles (10 statute miles) to the SE (131°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 916mb (27.05 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,046m (9,993ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11°C (52°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape: Concentric (has an inner and outer eye)
M. Inner Eye Diameter: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles)
M. Outer Eye Diameter: 42 nautical miles (48 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 147kts (~ 169.2mph) which was observed 9 nautical miles to the SE (131°) from the flight level center at 23:57:30Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 335° at 6kts (From the NNW at 7mph)
I hoping it goes west or out to sea but nonetheless I'm prepared
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Where's the milk and bread..... wait wrong seasonI hoping it goes west or out to sea but nonetheless I'm prepared
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
it seems to me the 0z models shift east and everyone thinks theres an east trend
then the 12z models shift west and everyone thinks theres a west trend
and repeat
then the 12z models shift west and everyone thinks theres a west trend
and repeat
Irma's gaining latitude pretty good atm, I know it's on a wnw motion but almost a little north or wnw... I guess it should bend back west later tonight if not it may pass just north of NHC forecast point. It's minor I know but just observation since I haven't been able to really follow it today, I'm way behind
W
WeatherLC
Guest
Come on guys there's a banter thread for a reason. 
Just catching up but still looks like a South Carolina hit for the GFS? Has anyone looked at the CMC?
Just catching up but still looks like a South Carolina hit for the GFS? Has anyone looked at the CMC?
Yeah probably just noise at this point, the wobbles north and south of the eye probably mess them up north and south.
CMC initialized at 989 or something like that. I thought that was pretty wild for a fairly reliable model to be off that much.
I don't think the CMC is really worth looking at but it was Miami than a North Carolina landfall...big shift from looking completely lost at 0z but it still initialized wrong...but even still I thought it was going to go OTS at first after Miami.
- Status