Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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btw record for longevity on a Cat 5 is 78 hours from 1932 or Allen at 72 hours from the satellite era

Irma is at 36 hours now and no sign of ending. Could weaken 25 mph and still be a 5.

Plus there's always the possibility it could weaken below it then do it again down the road(which is what Allen did twice)
 
metwannabe said:
I'm also curious how much the wind field will expand as it makes landfall, especially since it will be transitioning to ET system. When Hugo came through Charlotte I barely got a cloud in the sky, zero effects and then Irene a few years ago we were getting strong TS winds with some H gust well before it ever made landfall due to its expading windfield.

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The gradient between the high over the NE and Irma late Sunday until Monday is pretty steep so we may see some decent wind well ahead of the system. Once it gets intoSC we would probably see our wind pick up a bit. The euro for example has 30-50kt gusts across central nc

I think the potential for such a long duration of breezy conditions could be a problem for us assuming the models are correct

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Brent said:
btw record for longevity on a Cat 5 is 78 hours from 1932 or Allen at 72 hours from the satellite era

Irma is at 36 hours now and no sign of ending. Could weaken 25 mph and still be a 5.

Plus there's always the possibility it could weaken below it then do it again down the road(which is what Allen did twice)
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Yeah. I am still using the Advanced Dvorak Technique maps to keep track of Irma's overall cycles and intensity. As you can see, she's strengthening again after being a bit down. This next flight should be interesting.
11LP.GIF
 
the models are all hinting she could do another bout of RI in the Bahamas and unfortunately the Florida Straits anyway(which is when I always figured she'd be a Cat 5, not really now), so I'm fully expecting her to make an attempt at it as long as she follows the forecast path away from Hispanola/Cuba
 
We may still be a ways away, but we're close enough to have an idea of where Irma is going to affect. At this point a traditional OTS is not likely unfortunately...and the best case is still pretty bad for the coast (a terrifying hurricane turning just off of the coast and a lot of damage on the beaches).
 
If anyone has noticed, the HMON and HWRF are bringing Irma stronger longer, and seem to be going with the idea that she is not going to let up anytime soon. Seeing the more north of the islands path means that we are going to see some insane longevity I feel.
 
its unheard of to even stay at this intensity for so long(she broke Allen's record of longest 180+ earlier), they always weaken usually after a day due to EWRC's or dry air or what not... this would be a top level storm in the Pacific more known for this sort of thing, so its been something amazing to watch besides the obvious US threat
 
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you know I would laugh at the HMON's 876 mb

But the GFS has 880s/890 in the same area... and even the Euro/UKMET having 910s and low 920s is probably lower which is really frightening

Needless to say I think she can be at least as strong as she is now at some point closer to Florida
 
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Brent said:
it replaced the GFDL this season
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Yeah, and it seems to be doing dozens of times better than the GFDL did.
Brent said:
you know I would laugh at the HMON's 876 mb

But the GFS has 880s/890 in the same area... and even the Euro/UKMET having 910s and low 920s is probably lower which is really frightening

Needless to say I think she can be at least as strong as she is now at some point closer to Florida
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I wouldn't laugh too much either. Those waters can produce sub 900 mb pressures, but I think that 876 is too low. I think 890 mb and 200 could be possible, but not definite. If she keeps 185 or strengthens, I would be thinking 200 is possible. If not, then it will be probably back up to 185 at landfall.
 
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yeah the last time I remember the GFDL being right was when it was the only model that saw Katrina's turn that made history over S FL(which led to a track shift from Destin to New Orleans)

yes that long ago
 
pcbjr said:
Understand the concern - but don't get the cart before the horse - we are still about 3 days before a CONUS hit (if it happens)
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Not putting any cart before any horse, just inquiring based on current model data.... I still need to be somewhat prepared IF it does make some type of landfall. I know not to take anything as set in stone at this point.... I'm an oldie but goodie just like yourself ;)
 
Brent said:
its unheard of to even stay at this intensity for so long(she broke Allen's record of longest 180+ earlier), they always weaken usually after a day due to EWRC's or dry air or what not... this would be a top level storm in the Pacific more known for this sort of thing, so its been something amazing to watch besides the obvious US threat
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Couldn't have said it better. ERC's have puzzled me with this storm from the beginning. It seems to go through them very quickly , when it does have one, which seems fairly rare. It's almost like the outer wind maxima contracts into the inner eye so quickly they merge thereby spending much less time in a "weakened" state. Speaking of which the eye looks to be contracting again as it pulls away from PR.
 
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