Brent
Member
HWRF is just a tad south of Irma's track through the NE Caribbean
Closer to Guadeloupe than Barbuda
Closer to Guadeloupe than Barbuda
Yeah, and who knows how fast or slow it could develop. Isn't the shear a bit more unfavorable this time around, or could we see RI again like with Jose and Irma?View attachment 1257
Yikes de ja vu. Hopefully for the leeward's sake the HWRF is wrong... Unfortunately for Irma and Jose, it was actually too conservative
Yeah. If we can't have a Jose to help, we may be watching a sequel. I didn't like this opening last time, and it seems to be similar.The 18Z GEFS has many hits SC northward though it also has a few in the GA/FL/Gulf region. The key to these US hits is that Jose isn't nearby for protection via a weakening of the high to the north.
I would say if it still looks good by the moring, it will be TD 15. Hopefully they will be careful not to pull the trigger too early again.Well this is looking good ATM. This one should draw our attention.
That's the night the lights went out in Georgia...Georgia coast would go bye bye if this goes in to St. Augustine at 930 mb...