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Tropical Major Hurricane Maria

Can we just fast forward two weeks and see how all this played out? Trying to track this mess is gonna give us a headache sheesh
 
The HWRF vs the HMON as it always starts out. The HMON has a weak low entering the Caribbean while the HWRF gives a blow to the Lesser Antilles and the US Virgin Islands as a cat 4. Too early really for these models, but just interesting to note.
 
I count ~10 hits out of 50 12Z EPS members on the SE US or US Gulf coast from 96L. I think that's more than the 0Z had.

Wouldn't it be ironic if Jose were to save the SE from a big hit from 96L when one might think of Jose, himself, as a threat? It's certainly a realistic possibility with Jose hanging around so long. Hopefully for the SE's sake he will and do it offshore the east coast.
 
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like a repeat of irma
 
A major on the GFS with this I think? But it's hitting the major Caribbean areas though thankfully (even though they don't need it!).
 
It looks on the 18Z GFS like Jose may help protect the SE US by weakening the ridge to 96's north. Let's see how this evolves.

Edit: hope for Jose to hang around a long time! He also helped on the 12Z Euro.
 
I think this one is going to either get grabbed by Jose this run or be shoved into the high and pushed into the US. There is no way that can break that large of a high.
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The 18Z GEFS has many hits SC northward though it also has a few in the GA/FL/Gulf region. The key to these US hits is that Jose isn't nearby for protection via a weakening of the high to the north.
 
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
a little more than 1000 miles east of the Windward Islands are
showing signs of organization. Environmental conditions are
conducive for additional development, and a tropical cyclone is
likely to form during the next day or so while the system moves
westward or west-northwestward around 20 mph. Interests in the
Lesser Antilles and northeastern Caribbean should closely monitor
the progress of this system. Tropical storm or hurricane watches
could be issued for portions of the Lesser Antilles on Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
 
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