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Tropical Major Hurricane Maria

HWRF is just a tad south of Irma's track through the NE Caribbean

Closer to Guadeloupe than Barbuda
 
hwrf_satIR_96L_22.png

Yikes de ja vu. Hopefully for the leeward's sake the HWRF is wrong... Unfortunately for Irma and Jose, it was actually too conservative :confused:
 
Thankfully the SSTs in/around the Leeward islands and Puerto Rico have been cooled off and upwelled by Irma and Jose, but they're still in excess of 28-29C... :/
neatl_oisst_anom_current.png
 
GaWx said:
The 18Z GEFS has many hits SC northward though it also has a few in the GA/FL/Gulf region. The key to these US hits is that Jose isn't nearby for protection via a weakening of the high to the north.
Click to expand...
Yeah. If we can't have a Jose to help, we may be watching a sequel. :confused: I didn't like this opening last time, and it seems to be similar.
gfs-ememb_lowlocs_atl_41.png
 
I don't see any real signs of unfavorable conditions at least through the islands early week, a major is certainly possible.
 
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Well this is looking good ATM. This one should draw our attention.
 
yeah Jose sure exited stage right

Its going to hit, probably a Cat 4 in the NW Bahamas at 204 hours
 
Definitely doubt it would come back that ferociously if it ran over Hispaniola as a strong major hurricane... That almost always doesn't go over well and cat 4-5 TCs that hit land, even if they have all the time in the world to come back, usually take their sweet time reintensifying after land interaction because the wind field broadens/flattens & a new inner core has to form as well which often takes at least 2-3 days... Plus it's the GFS...
 
the outflow on the GFS simulated IR is incredible, if it verifies it would have no problem bombing again
 
if that huge ridge develops behind Jose Florida is doomed

There's like no other scenarios other than it dying from the Shredder

UKMET Is Irma Part II through the Caribbean
 
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