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Tropical Major Hurricane Maria

ForsythSnow said:
Truncation saves the look from being as nasty, but I expect that to have been a cat 4 at landfall.
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_41.png
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Surely we are not buying the GFS intensity forecast #irma

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1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
about 1100 miles east of the Windward Islands have become better
organized since yesterday. Environmental conditions are conducive
for development, and a tropical cyclone is expected to form over
the weekend. Tropical storm or hurricane watches could be issued
for portions of the Lesser Antilles on Saturday, and interests
in those islands should closely monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Yikes...
 
Really not liking this steering pattern in front of 96L already... While we have a long ways to go, the short-medium range large scale synoptic setup features the shortwave capturing Jose leaving behind a cut-off ULL near/over the FL peninsula that provides a break in the AB high near the SE US as 96L approaches PR and the north-central Leeward Islands... Ugh.
ecmwf_z500a_atl_4.png
 
There's a pretty big break in the Azores-Bermuda just off the SE US coast thanks to Jose, looks like 96L will be lifted into the SW Atlantic here...
ecmwf_z500a_watl_6.png
 
ForsythSnow said:
What would happen if Jose didn't cause the break? Would it go further south or go OTS, or be sentenced to the shredder?
Click to expand...

If Jose wasn't there, the flank of the ridge near the SE US would be much stronger and 96L would go into the Caribbean, but given that the forecasts for this are inside the day 3-5 window for when this break would begin to develop, it's probably legitimate... :/ Just a question of exactly where and how strong this break will be, but it's liable to be around or just off the SE US coast
 
Webberweather53 said:
Really not liking this steering pattern in front of 96L already... While we have a long ways to go, the short-medium range large scale synoptic setup features the shortwave capturing Jose leaving behind a cut-off ULL near/over the FL peninsula that provides a break in the AB high near the SE US as 96L approaches PR and the north-central Leeward Islands... Ugh.
View attachment 1250
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What would this mean for us here in the Carolinas Potentially?
 
The Euro is trying to double team the SE US and Mid-Atlantic... Jose and 96L simultaneously headed towards the coastline... Lol what a weenie run
ecmwf_mslpa_east3_36.png
:weenie::weenie::weenie::weenie::weenie::weenie::weenie::weenie::weenie::weenie::weenie:
 
Actually, that Euro setup suggests that Jose may end up being the SE's friend and allow for 96L to stay offshore via the weakness he creates offshore to its north.
 
UKMET takes this across the islands Irma hit east of Puerto Rico as a hurricane Tuesday
 
yeah if Jose doesn't save us I think this is pretty likely to get close to the US

and I'm not really sure how much I buy Jose saving us
 
Well, I'm taking the wife to the OBX to celebrate our anniversary the weekend on 10/6-10/9...I suppose it's only appropriate that I'll track Maria for our 1 year like I did for Matthew for our wedding. Really not a fan of "M" storms right now...
 
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