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Tropical Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten

Srefs really jumped in at 21z with a mean of 3 inches at RDU

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The NAM doesnt look much drier at all this run, already closing in on 8" here with more to come... While it's the NAM, again the large-scale pattern supports heavy rainfall in central NC monday night into Tuesday...
 
It appears based on the last couple of hours that there may be a bit of a low center forming near St Augustine, where winds are quite light and SLP lowest. (I'm treating The Villages' lower pressure as bogus.)

Now that we've reached the time of a climo diurnal max, we may see hourly SLPs start to fall again shortly.
 
<3
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GaWx said:
It appears based on the last couple of hours that there may be a bit of a low center forming near St Augustine, where winds are quite light and SLP lowest. (I'm treating The Villages' lower pressure as bogus.)

Now that we've reached the time of a climo diurnal max, we may see hourly SLPs start to fall again shortly.
Click to expand...
Certainly appears that way on radar, just can make out possible slp just off St. Augustine

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You know, I just took a quick look at the GEFS from 18z and more are inland with the track than the 12z I think.. hm. seems like a TS is a sure thing with current intensity models.
 
While the 12z Euro had 0 precip in my yard, or county as a whole. the EPS decides to turn my county into a rainbow from the potential system:

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2017082712_90_4069_220_m.png
 
Shawn said:
While the 12z Euro had 0 precip in my yard, or county as a whole. the EPS decides to turn my county into a rainbow from the potential system:

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2017082712_90_4069_220_m.png
Click to expand...

From looking at this Shawn that will completely be a BUST!! 6 to 7 inches is unlikely because one the speed of the system, and two the Shear?? I actually think 3k Nam may be the best with the rainfall for this event or the HRRR.
 
GFS is probably not expanding the precipitation shield far enough to the NW as usual & in comparison to its ensemble suite but you get the idea, several inches of torrential rain and gusty winds possible as PTC 10 passes by NC.

gfs_apcpn_seus_8.png
 
hrrr_ref_frzn_seus_15.png

The last 3 runs of the HRRR which does very good in Short Range is suggesting keeping more of the moisture off coast of South Carolina then what was previously shown!!
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
From looking at this Shawn that will completely be a BUST!! 6 to 7 inches is unlikely because one the speed of the system, and two the Shear?? I actually think 3k Nam may be the best with the rainfall for this event or the HRRR.
Click to expand...

I think looking at it versus what eric posted, the whole map is broken. lol
 
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