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Tropical Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten

Thank goodness for the outflow from Harvey helping to make the shear as high as it still is along the SE coast. Otherwise, I may have been already staring down the barrel of a strong TC nearby right now!
 
GaWx said:
Thank goodness for the outflow from Harvey helping to make the shear as high as it still is along the SE coast. Otherwise, I may have been already staring down the barrel of a strong TC nearby right now!
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Totally unscientific (since I can't find anything really akin) --
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html
But the direction of this little bugger is not, IMHO, a given yet ...

If I were in Brunswick, I'd be looking closely ... (but then, what do I know?) ... :confused:
 
GaWx said:
Thank goodness for the outflow from Harvey helping to make the shear as high as it still is along the SE coast. Otherwise, I may have been already staring down the barrel of a strong TC nearby right now!
Click to expand...

Yeah the low level thermal gradient from an adjacent cold front bisecting PTC 10 is largely responsible for its recent development and maintenance in the face of 60+ knots of shear. This system is almost assuredly not fully tropical atm...
 
I don't think this gets strong anytime soon, but I could see this backing on, or even just inland with the system...
hopefully it can sling some rain into the SE...That would be nice.
 
A perfect summer evening for a walk here thanks to the solid NE winds and slightly lower dewpoints though there was a brief light shower a few minutes ago.

Note that SLPs, even at Mayport, have risen the last hour most places other than St Aug. But keep in mind that this is when a climo diurnal max is approaching.

Mayport (near Jax, FL) gusted to 41 mph last hour.
 
Partly if not mostly banter, but ...

Thing has a facial attitude (LOL)

Screen_Shot_2017-08-27_at_9.28.54_PM.png


and it appears to be spinning a tad further south than some might think ...
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-74.21,21.02,1907

Screen_Shot_2017-08-27_at_9.29.16_PM.png
 
Central NC will also be in the right entrance region of an 70-80 kt jet streak over Pennsylvania which help augment the lifting that will be induced by PTC 10...
gfs-ens_uv250_us_8.png

From a synoptic standpoint, with the isentropic upglide, positively tilted trough over the OH valley reinforcing the left of track precipitation distribution, and aforementioned jet dynamics this looks like a setup that favors a considerable amount of rain over east-central NC...
 
Webberweather53 said:
From a synoptic standpoint, with the isentropic upglide, positively tilted trough over the OH valley reinforcing the left of track precipitation distribution, and aforementioned jet dynamics this looks like a setup that favors a considerable amount of rain over east-central NC...
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Too bad, Shetley ... :confused:
 
pcbjr said:
Too bad, Shetley ... :confused:
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Yeah it's strange how the operational GFS & Euro are still very unenthused about the rainfall potential over central NC given the pattern, certainly can't recall too many times where there's been this much of a discrepancy between the operational models and their ensemble suites for this long esp the Euro...
 
Webberweather53 said:
The GEFS mean keeps shifting the heavier precip further NW across the NC & VA piedmont in spite of the recent eastward shift of the GFS op...
View attachment 950
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Okay so again tropics isn't my forte at all but curious. What is the likely hood of Harvey and the TD pulling together? Is that even possible giving the TD is being pulled left with the disturbance in the lakes?


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MBell said:
Okay so again tropics isn't my forte at all but curious. What is the likely hood of Harvey and the TD pulling together? Is that even possible giving the TD is being pulled left with the disturbance in the lakes?


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Not at this juncture, these 2 systems are too far apart for binary interaction (need to be within ~450 miles) & even so, PTC 10 isn't exactly a tropical cyclone so the same rules wrt fujiwhara interaction don't apply because of it's shallower warm core.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Not at this juncture, these 2 systems are too far apart for binary interaction (need to be within ~450 miles) & even so, PTC 10 isn't exactly a tropical cyclone so the same rules wrt fujiwhara interaction don't apply because of it's shallower warm core.
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Thanks! Great explanation!


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Nam probably isn't going to be as wet as the 18z run but it's still setting up a decent rain event

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