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Tropical Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten

NHC will be initiating advisories at 5 PM EDT on Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten, located off the southeast U.S. coast.
 
3k NAM more east with the big totals....
nam3km_apcpn_seus_16.png
 
Quick question: which model sniffed this one out in this general area? Sounds like the Euro may or may not have been interested, the CMC did some formation, and the GFS did as well. Of course the NAM did too.
 
I still think this has potential to be a lopsided rain event, with heavy precip to the left of center, seen it many times when these systems interact with incoming trough....
 
ForsythSnow said:
Quick question: which model sniffed this one out in this general area? Sounds like the Euro may or may not have been interested, the CMC did some formation, and the GFS did as well. Of course the NAM did too.
Click to expand...

The CMC while overly aggressive was the only model that persistently showed development and was consistently further west than all guidance which showed an easy recurve OTS at one pt
 
Advisory just came out.
000
WTNT35 KNHC 272046
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102017
500 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 2017

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.2N 80.0W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from South Santee River, South
Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South Santee River to Duck

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to
48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
31.2 North, longitude 80.0 West. The system is currently stationary.
A slow northward motion is expected tonight and Monday, followed by
a faster northeastward motion Monday night and Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the system will move slowly toward the South
Carolina coast tonight and Monday. The system is forecast to
move near the northeastern coast of South Carolina and along the
North Carolina coast Monday night and Tuesday.

Satellite wind data and buoy observations indicate that maximum
sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
system is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or Monday.
The system is expected to become post-tropical on Tuesday.

Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in coverage and
gradually become better organized, and the low is likely to become
a tropical depression or tropical storm in the next day or so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure based on buoy data is 1007 mb
(29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area Monday night through Tuesday.

RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches along the South Carolina, North
Carolina, and southeast Virginia coasts, with possible isolated
maximum amounts of 6 inches.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

Discussion:

000
WTNT45 KNHC 272047
TCDAT5

Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102017
500 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 2017

Convection associated with the broad area of low pressure located
east of the Georgia coast has increased markedly today. Visibile
satellite imagery shows multiple low-level swirls rotating around a
mean center, but ASCAT data earlier today showed that the
circulation was not yet well-defined. The ASCAT data and buoy
observations indicate that the initial intensity is 30 kt, and buoy
data suggest the central pressure is around 1007 mb. While the
system is expected to remain sheared, it has a high chance of
becoming a tropical depression or tropical storm before it becomes
baroclinic in about 48 hours. Given that, and the potential for
this system to bring tropical storm conditions to the coast from
northern South Carolina through North Carolina, advisories are
being initiated on this system as a Potential Tropical Cyclone.

The system is currently moving little in a region of weak steering,
but should begin to move slowly northward and then quickly
accelerate northeastward ahead of a mid-latitude trough moving into
the mid-Atlantic states. The NHC forecast follows the trend of the
global models keeping the low center near the coast, but as usual
there is more uncertainty than usual in the track forecast for a
weak/developing system. After the system moves into the western
Atlantic, it should continue accelerating east-northeastward ahead
of the upper trough through the end of the period.

Despite the sheared envirionment, the system should be able to
intensify a little via diabatic processes before it intensifies
further as it undergoes a more substantial baroclinic
intensification at 48 hours and beyond. The NHC intensity forecast
follows the intensity consensus through 36 hours and then follows
the trend of the global model guidance and guidance from the NOAA
Ocean Prediction Center.

Although the potential impacts are within 36 hours, given the
uncertainty in whether tropical storm force winds will occur on land
in northeastern South Caroilna and southeastern North Carolina,
south, a tropical storm watch has been issued for these areas.
Note that north of Duck, North Carolina, hazards from this system
will be handled with non-tropical products issued by local National
Weather Service offices.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 31.2N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 28/0600Z 31.6N 80.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 28/1800Z 32.4N 80.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 34.1N 78.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 29/1800Z 36.6N 75.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 30/1800Z 40.0N 66.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 31/1800Z 43.0N 55.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 01/1800Z 47.0N 43.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
Webberweather53 said:
The CMC while overly aggressive was the only model that persistently showed development and was consistently further west than all guidance which showed an easy recurve OTS at one pt
Click to expand...
Thanks! Is it just me, or has the east coast area been the CMC's wheelhouse for finding development this year? It surely found Gert and developed it when everything else didn't, but has so far not done the best elsewhere.
 
hrrr_ref_frzn_seus_18.png

HRRR does pretty well in Short Range which is showing a very weak system with showers along SC/NC Coast!!


nam3km_ref_frzn_seus_25.png


The NAM 3K have a way of making systems stronger then what end up becoming but does good with Rainfall!! Its also shows Showers along SC/NC Coast and Breezy Condition.
 
Tropical storm watches up from around Charleston to Outerbanks of NC!
 
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