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Tropical Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten

This has to be the one of the wildest run-run swings I've ever seen in the 12km NAM... Of course as Im saying that mother nature is probably going "hehe, hold my beer"

New 18z run

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Old 12z run

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Webberweather53 said:
I just did a FB post on this in case anyone was curious...
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You forgot to mention , playing with Guinea pigs or wrestling, and squats, otherwise , pretty good! LMAO!
Seriously though, the track they put out with the advisory, is a lot more inland than was being talked about the last day or so!
 
Webberweather53 said:
This has to be the one of the wildest run-run swings I've ever seen in the 12km NAM... Of course as Im saying that mother nature is probably going "hehe, hold my beer"

New 18z run

View attachment 940


Old 12z run

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LMBO! I'll hold the 18z for my area. Besides!It's the NAM and what could go wrong with that idea.


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Let's just leave it. If we left Harvey over here this one for sure needs to stay


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Getting close ... http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41008

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and ...

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and one run later ...

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This still appears to be a rather broad surface low since lowest pressures stretch from near buoy 41008 off of GA, the one Phil just posted (where pressures actually just rose a little the last hour to 29.82" from 29.80"), east a bit from 41008, then down to St. Augustine and then inland into FL. Pressures are fairly steady right now in most of these areas with 41008 up a little over the last hour as mentioned while St. Augustine has dropped some. The lowest pressures in the general region per the buoys are near 1009.5 mb. I don't think this is in a hurry to organize into a tight TC, perhaps due to the very high shear though TDs near the lowest pressure remain in the tropical mid 70's. Here in SAV, TDs have fallen slightly recently with the solid NE winds bringing in a little dier air at least for now.
 
GaWx said:
This still appears to be a rather broad surface low since lowest pressures stretch from near buoy 41008 off of GA, the one Phil just posted (where pressures actually just rose a little the last hour to 29.82" from 29.80"), east a bit from 41008, then down to St. Augustine and then inland into FL. Pressures are fairly steady right now in most of these areas with 41008 up a little over the last hour as mentioned while St. Augustine has dropped some. The lowest pressures in the general region per the buoys are near 1009.5 mb. I don't think this is in a hurry to organize into a tight TC, perhaps due to the very high shear though TDs near the lowest pressure remain in the tropical mid 70's. Here in SAV, TDs have fallen slightly recently with the solid NE winds bringing in a little dier air at least for now.
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Elongated - by all means.

Not anything to write home about yet; Larry is 100% on that (of course ... ;)):

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However - It is trying to get a circulation together ...

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-74.21,21.02,1907

Screen_Shot_2017-08-27_at_6.58.06_PM.png


Phil
 
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Mayport's SLP fell .04"/1.3 mb the last hour while St. Simons Island's rose .01"/0.3 mb.
 
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