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Tropical Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten

Along with a host of other guidance, the RAP continues to shift the precipitation shield NWward in the short range, brining more considerable rain into the east-central piedmont of NC.
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Webberweather53 said:
Along with a host of other guidance, the RAP continues to shift the precipitation shield NWward in the short range, brining more considerable rain into the east-central piedmont of NC.
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Fairly significant shifts too.... certainly something to watch
 
Looks like there is a sort of closed circulation. Winds around it seem decent enough to support a depression. However, this circulation is much further SW than the designate one.
 
metwannabe said:
Of course I'm technologically challenged or I'd post a loop instead of a link lol anyway zoom in and look just NE of Fl/Ga line this looks like possible llc if one is there or is trying anyway...

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/goesEastconusband02.html
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Still feeling mighty "tropical" in N FL today ...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html
https://atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12

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How much for Jonesboro ?
 
...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS THE DISTURBANCE POORLY
ORGANIZED...
...CHANCES TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ARE DIMINISHING...
 
Rah is getting on board with heavy rain farther west
The low level PV accompanying the low(s) already along the NC coast may result in stronger than model-simulated moisture transport/isentropic upglide into the Coastal Plain and ne Piedmont, which may result in periods of moderate to heavy rain farther west than previously forecast

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SD said:
Rah is getting on board with heavy rain farther west
The low level PV accompanying the low(s) already along the NC coast may result in stronger than model-simulated moisture transport/isentropic upglide into the Coastal Plain and ne Piedmont, which may result in periods of moderate to heavy rain farther west than previously forecast

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you left out this part... "into Halifax, Nash, Warren, and Franklin counties, for example" lol
Rain already breaking out further west, HRRR almost hints at heavier band up into Va... only we could screw this up
 
SD said:
The sref plume has a floor of around 1 and a max near 8. If I fall anywhere within that it'll be a victory given how dry the models looked 3 days ago

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Looks like they have come down some but still around 1.5 mean
 
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