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Wintry Winters Last Stand / March 11th-13th Winter Storm

18z Tuesday

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18z Wednesday

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18z Thursday

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18z Friday

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Compelled to quote Muddy Waters, Cold Weather Blues:

Oh, so cold up north that the birds can't hardly fly
So cold up north that the birds can't hardly fly
I'm going back south
And let this winter pass on by
And let this winter pass on by
And let this winter pass on by
Let this winter pass on by, yeah
 
This has not been the year to put any eggs into any models' baskets. They can't get it right even within a week. I was figuring that there might be slight adjustments after Wednesday but these haven't been slight. If anyone sees snow from round 1 it's going to probably be a flurries-coat.
 
I can't believe what I just saw on the gefs . Of course at this point ensembles are kinda pointless but my god the gefs is so bad for system tomorrow night


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Storm5 said:
This is amazing. Still have 24 hours to completely trend to a non event !!!!!
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well at least Asheville is looking good, hell might as well stay for the second system
 
The nam is going to be right, we may not end up with big amounts in Tenn but I think there will be 1-2 inches in some spots across west and middle tn. Of course I think there will be some areas of west and middle that do not receive as much. I think over in east tn has a chance for some 2-4 inch totals with higher totals possible in the elevations. I think back into west and middle tn folks are going to be dependent on being in a good moisture band, as I expect it being a game of hit and miss. Hopefully the models are vastly underdone on the precip end. Maybe the nam will keep up showing more moisture and perform a coup.
 
If storm first chase,
snowvol said:
The nam is going to be right, we may not end up with big amounts in Tenn but I think there will be 1-2 inches in some spots across west and middle tn. Of course I think there will be some areas of west and middle that do not receive as much. I think over in east tn has a chance for some 2-4 inch totals with higher totals possible in the elevations. I think back into west and middle tn folks are going to be dependent on being in a good moisture band, as I expect it being a game of hit and miss. Hopefully the models are vastly underdone on the precip end. Maybe the nam will keep up showing more moisture and perform a coup.
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great post
 
Can't bank on the NAM because I think we are seeing why it's not as good in the longer range. The way it just plays out this system is odd and I feel like I was saying this two months ago...

Edit: Unless my brain is fried the models don't seem to know what to do with the MJO.
 
Talk about total model fail. I have been in a good spot for days on ever model. The 0z Euro the so called King had 7 inches imby. POOF. Gone.
 
NWTNWX said:
Talk about total model fail. I have been in a good spot for days on ever model. The 0z Euro the so called King had 7 inches imby. POOF. Gone.
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Feel your pain - one bit of consolation - when a NHC forecast busts down here, I'm ecstatic ... ;)
 
I get off work at 6pm tomorrow and trying to decide whether I should go somewhere afterwards to experience this snowstorm. Has Storm said yet where he's going ?
 
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