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Wintry Winters Last Stand / March 11th-13th Winter Storm

Storm5 said:
Euro is trying for a CMC like solution for next week but it's MUCH weaker


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Warmer too, but I guess that option is on the table. UKMET, GGEM, Euro.
 
Storm5 said:
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Ill take my 2-3" maybe half inch if melting ha right over southeast TN and be happy.
 
I see Dr. No is alive and well!

Although for March, its still a wonder that this is happening at all
 
Well, that's it folks. I'm sure the EPS will have some big members to keep everyone watching. What a jerk of a model.
 
Shawn said:
Well, that's it folks. I'm sure the EPS will have some big members to keep everyone watching. What a jerk of a model.
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Huh??? This is still a good system for Tennessee and Nc isn't done with this one at all


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Storm5 said:
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Although the euro brings totals down again for northern parts of Tennessee I'm actually still optimistic we could see more up here. I am no weather pro whatsoever so take this with a grain of salt. I just have a feeling northern areas in Tennessee will do a little better then what has been shown the last few runs.
 
Lol this is what happens when the shortwave keeps slowing down, the northern stream has time to catch up to our initial overrunning wave and phases w/ it, hence you end up w/ one massive storm instead of 2, in what would amount to an all or nothing scenario from NC and points northward... The CMC was very close even a day or so ago to a triple phase near the eastern seaboard and the Euro is only a few hours away (wrt timing) from an absolute monster off the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic... The uncertainty in this setup is unusually high and we need to at least until 12z tomorrow to have a decent first guess on our initial overrunning wave across the upper-mid south.
 
12z euro is yet another solution for the east coast on Tuesday even though it does not phase like the CMC still spanks the MA to NE


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The GFS ensemble members show several hits for Raleigh. Courtesy of Weatherbell.
 
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