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Wintry Winters Last Stand / March 11th-13th Winter Storm

Not at all for Atlanta itself, but rather areas such as Forsyth NEward and then north of Carrolton Northward while Cherokee is entirely missed per the 12Z. There is a warm nose that will probably verify and take Forsyth and Dawson out though.

As far as the Euro is concerned now, I think it was a bad run, or that it is outside it's best prediction area. I would be paying more attention to the NAM at this point, and starting tomorrow the other short range models. However, if there begins to be a slower trend in the models, I would hang up any snow chances in NC for Sunday. However, I would then begin to bank more on a Monday or Tuesday storm due to a delay in the system, but the cold air will be present. If the storm does slow, the East half of NC won't do well, but the other half would.


North of Carrollton? But that would be Atlanta. Or....are you saying it's gonna be more west of Atlanta?
 
Do you think that if this thing does bomb off the coast, that it could bring in enough cold air to Georgia and parts of SC to give snowfall?

Still too far out to really say no at this point, and given ongoing trends in slowing the southern stream s/w leading to a bigger storm near the Carolina coast, I wouldn't immediately rule it out, but consider it unlikely-very unlikely atm
 
It wouldn't be the first time that the models have put too much emphasis on the first piece of energy and the second piece ends up being the bigger system.

True, there are a lot of massive hits for the mid Atlantic and Northeast
 
I don't know how often these maps are updated or how accurate but here's some probability maps for snow.

Probability for 2 inches of snow.

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Probability for 4 inches of snow.

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