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Misc Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade

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weatherfide said:
Yes. Nothing unusual here. To be fair, there is talk of the overall pattern, too.
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I realize that and agree but I also see an unusual amount of excitement for a post D10 winter threat.... again I get it, it's all we got right now. Lol

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metwannabe said:
I realize that and agree but I also see an unusual amount of excitement for a post D10 winter threat.... again I get it, it's all we got right now. Lol

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We used to be able to chase these all the time. :(
 
metwannabe said:
I realize that and agree but I also see an unusual amount of excitement for a post D10 winter threat.... again I get it, it's all we got right now. Lol

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Fantasy maps are helpful to me to tell me we're coming out of a shut out pattern. If we're not even getting fantasy long range hits, our pattern stinks. The more we get, the better the pattern. That's not always the case obviously but to me it's a helpful sign. Even more so when there's good ensemble mean fantasy. I'm really not interested in dissecting the what ifs and giving them individual serious discussion, but yeah.

I'm encouraged that we're getting some "pings" to tell me at least we're getting back to "normal" and hits are at least possible in the next 2 weeks.
 
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What will today bring?


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WxWatch said:
That's just warming ahead of a cold front from the late week system next week. The warmer anomalies won't last as the last week approaches. I'm thinking there would be another surge of deep cold air in time for the winter storm during the last week.

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Don't really disagree but it was just another "window for a storm" that has warmed significantly. Just hoping the next one doesn't do the same. The upper air temps this season have been rough.
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Usmeagle2005 said:
Why I didn’t get too excited about snow.
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Sorry but this guy sucks. There I finally said what we've all been thinking, I've never seen anything of his be correct. He may be a genius at some things but I just don't see the allure at all. How can you say the models are coupling and a warm pattern but the gefs is probably the coldest mean out there.

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SnowNiner said:
I'm good with "seasonal" the last week of January. I'd like by the time we get to 2/1 though for us to be looking at a very nice pattern. My guess is we continue on the ups and downs for the rest of the month and stay overall seasonal.
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If we get a snow make for a storm two weeks out it will be time to shut the board down


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SD said:
Sorry but this guy sucks. There I finally said what we've all been thinking, I've never seen anything of his be correct. He may be a genius at some things but I just don't see the allure at all. How can you say the models are coupling and a warm pattern but the gefs is probably the coldest mean out there.

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That makes me feel a little better.? and I’m just saying I am not getting my hopes up because I know so many things can go wrong. I’m not getting too excited. Not saying I’m not hoping or a little excited.? last year taught me a lot.
 
SD said:
Sorry but this guy sucks. There I finally said what we've all been thinking, I've never seen anything of his be correct. He may be a genius at some things but I just don't see the allure at all. How can you say the models are coupling and a warm pattern but the gefs is probably the coldest mean out there.

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He only sucks when he is calling for cold... now he saying February looking warm. He will be right ...watch
 
My thing about bam is if they are really forecasting for energy/ag they have to be putting out what they think is correct. Too much $$$$ in the line

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Would be nice if Webber privately messaged him and shared his thoughts instead of public shaming. Doesn’t look well in the top agencies of government if he ever wants a career
 
SD said:
My thing about bam is if they are really forecasting for energy/ag they have to be putting out what they think is correct. Too much $$$$ in the line

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It's one of two things: Either their PPV clients are getting the different/accurate information, or they are inept and have just been blitzing social media this year to create an image and don't, in reality, have a lot of clients (even though they try to make it seem like they do). My guess is that it's the latter. Maybe inept is too strong a word, but based on what I've seen from them, I don't think they are some powerhouse energy forecasting outfit with tons of clients just raking in the dough. They have done a good job making it seem that way, though.

And Judah is not often correct either. Although, I still have a hard time seeing the AO as anything but positive...at least right now. But seeing his face does make me want to kick a cat.
 
packfan98 said:
Get them, @Webberweather53!
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BAMwx is right about one thing though: models’ cold bias. There have been numerous instance of rolling forward the 11-15 and it warming up and very few the other way around. And this is still happening. The cold bias has been relentless and it hasn’t just been with the GFS/GEFS. I like it when BAMwx harps on this. I also like that they have unlike JB switched from their cold forecast. They are not doing the constant delayed but not denied of JB. I get the feeling from some posters here that they’re pissed that BAMwx has become open minded about the cold. It is almost as if these folks treat warm forecasters as bad guys.
 
NoSnowATL said:
Happens in business all the time, my investors cc the whole word when they want to poop on me for a mistake. Just got to take it .


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Yep...that's how the world works, for better or worse.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Would be nice if Webber privately messaged him and shared his thoughts instead of public shaming. Doesn’t look well in the top agencies of government if he ever wants a career
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Lol totally disagree here. First off they are in the public eye and puke out graphics all over the internet , if they don't want people to have issues with their statements they should make their page private. Secondly he isn't shaming anyone , he is challenging their thoughts.
 
Rain Cold said:
It's one of two things: Either their PPV clients are getting the different/accurate information, or they are inept and have just been blitzing social media this year to create an image and don't, in reality, have a lot of clients (even though they try to make it seem like they do). My guess is that it's the latter. Maybe inept is too strong a word, but based on what I've seen from them, I don't think they are some powerhouse energy forecasting outfit with tons of clients just raking in the dough. They have done a good job making it seem that way, though.

And Judah is not often correct either. Although, I still have a hard time seeing the AO as anything but positive...at least right now. But seeing his face does make me want to kick a cat.
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Judah’s right to harp on the +AO now. Like BAMwx, I like that he’s willing to talk about warmth possibilities. The indices overall still don’t support a cold SE other than transitional cold. Looking ahead, they’re no better than neutral. When combining that with model bias, there’s no reason to believe the SE is headed toward anything more than transitional cold/near normal overall imo.

Edit: For those who don’t know, the GEFS has had a solid -AO bias.
 
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GaWx said:
Judah’s right to harp on the +AO now. Like BAMwx, I like that he’s willing to talk about warmth possibilities. The indices overall still don’t support a cold SE other than transitional cold. Looking ahead, they’re no better than neutral. When combining that with model bias, there’s no reason to believe the SE is headed toward anything more than transitional cold/near normal overall imo.
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No one is saying anything about warmth. Everyone is taking issue with how they are getting there. This PV humping is getting old, it can easily be modulated by epo/nao forcing which we have failed on miserably. I just have a hard time with +ao=nowinter. Sorry to get on my soapbox
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I’m just posting other Mets opinions! The WARM options is certainly a possibility!!
I’m not trying to stir people that wants to just talk cold up by no means.......

There’s nobody on this forum that’s wants COLD AND SNOW anymore than I do. After all I am a snowman!

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