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Misc Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade

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Snowless & Grumpy said:
Dude nobody said it wouldn't snow. But a snowstorm doesn't make or break a winter. There is virtually ZERO chance this winter as a whole finishes anything other than a torch regardless of what Feb does. I don't know what's so hard to accept about that.
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False, A snow storm in the south will absolutely make or break a winter in the southeast most seasons. Take 2016 for example. Got 12 inches from one storm in January but if you take that away the winter was only decent as I got a 2+ inch storm in February of that year Also. Even up here if I get one storm of 2 inches or more it automatically makes it a decent winter in my opinion regardless of temps. Now 2 or more snows of 2+ inches is an excellent winter for the southeast imo.
 
Grass keeps getting greener and greener, last cold spell didn’t do much, got down to 23 but stayed cloudy and wind so no frost, may have slowed it down but man, not any major freezes or cold in next 7 days. Just crazy how green it is and some trees sprouting. Being a cold weather fan, I hate it. My little boy said, we don’t get many freezes around here do we? I told him normal low is freezing and he laughed. Just blows my mind how warm winters are getting and how fast, he was born in just a horrible time. 2010, he doesn’t really remember a good snow.? or cold that lasted.
 
One of the reasons why I think our winters have been terrible for the most part is because of warming of the Earth. Some may find that global warming is non-sense. It's not non-sense, the C02 levels have been rising for many of decades now. The C02 level is over 400 ppm (parts per million) and is projected to continue to rise. The global mean temperature has also been increasing as well due to an increase of C02 levels. Greater the C02, the more the globe is going to warm.

I found this website from NASA (link below) on the bottom of the page, you'll see a time series map from 1884 to 2019, you can put it in animation. The globe has no doubt warmed over the past many, many of years. You'll be surprised.
climate.nasa.gov

Global Surface Temperature | NASA Global Climate Change

Vital Signs of the Planet: Global Climate Change and Global Warming. Current news and data streams about global warming and climate change from NASA.
climate.nasa.gov climate.nasa.gov

The only best time for the Southeastern US to get a good chance of snowfall is when there would be PV splits that actually do propagate downward to the surface like it did back in 2014. That winter year was the best winter year, it was classic! Due to "warming" across the Arctic, there could be an increase of PV splits.

I also wonder if the magnetic north pole shift have to do with a shift with weather patterns. Yes, the magnetic north pole has been shifting towards Siberia. Could there be a global reverse?

earthsky.org

| EarthSky

As magnetic north shifts increasingly away from the geologic north pole - towards Siberia - studies suggest the northern lights could move with it.
earthsky.org earthsky.org



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Another thing that has made this winter terrible is our average H5 pattern we’ve fallen to these past few winters, @KyloG has the average H5 map if I’m not mistaken but we’re now dealing with a more average pattern that has a suppressed GOA/Aleutian ridge, -PNA, east coast ridge/SER, BN heights around the 50/50 area, and mainly a +NAO, ofc we don’t see this all winter and we currently don’t have this pattern now, but it’s been repeated to the point where it’s becoming more of a average H5 pattern we deal with, other things like the MJO probably has effected this aswell
 
Not many years ago we could get a snow with a average patter. Now it takes every little thing to go perfect absolutely perfect to get it just cold enough for snow. And to get that perfect pattern and precipitation to come together is hard. Green grass and trees budding in mid January, if you would have told me that not long ago that this would even be possible, I would have called you crazy. Never have I heard lawn mowers in January mowing grass, first time for me and I’m sure there will be may more new first.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
00z Euro just slammed the door on winter ??

Guys, it’s over. I’ve never been so sure of anything
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Ok if you're sure of it as you state, then there is no need in you coming in here to continually discuss winter weather. See you in the spring.
 
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Poimen said:
Overnight modeling leads me to believe we’ve fallen for another head fake.
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Maybe so, but actually (I know, fwiw, of course), the full 0Z and 6Z GFS runs have been the two coldest runs in quite awhile in the SE with the 6Z the coldest. Believe it or not, and I know it is hard to buy this (I don’t blame you if you don’t), the 6Z GFS full run is actually slightly BN in the SE:

0F66700A-FEE7-42FD-AF07-538CD30E147F.png

When was the last time the SE had a 15 day period in winter slightly BN or colder? I’d think it would have to be January of 2018.
 
Where has Eric been? It's never a good sign when he isn't saying anything:(
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
And oh, I was seething about Crean. I was able to calm myself down by watching new favorite show as of a month ago (and ending in a few days, I missed the boat there), Homicide Hunter. It feels like its going in the same direction that last year went, but I don't really care anymore, as I'm no longer partaking in viewing it (and I will munch my crow if I'm wrong). I have things to do, but besides those things, I really need baseball to get here.
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Ahhhhh.... Detective Joe Kenda. I, too, enjoy watching "Homicide Hunter."
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Another thing that has made this winter terrible is our average H5 pattern we’ve fallen to these past few winters, @KyloG has the average H5 map if I’m not mistaken but we’re now dealing with a more average pattern that has a suppressed GOA/Aleutian ridge, -PNA, east coast ridge/SER, BN heights around the 50/50 area, and mainly a +NAO, ofc we don’t see this all winter and we currently don’t have this pattern now, but it’s been repeated to the point where it’s becoming more of a average H5 pattern we deal with, other things like the MJO probably has effected this aswell
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Winters of 2017 and 2018 have featured a stout Aleutian ridge with a trough in the NW/W. This winter has been no different except we've had a consistent +EPO. Until we get Pacific SST's to change this will probably be the norm....atleast that's my novice guess. Hopefully this is just a rough cycle that we can climb out of...if not snow chasing in the SE won't be much fun.


compday.2XMtMQUI34.gifZBfxbaLznT.png
 
metwannabe said:
Ok if you're sure of it as you state, then there is no need in you coming in here to continually discuss winter weather. See you in the spring.
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lol it isn’t already? If I leave until spring, who will be here to tell you guys how bad the Euro run is at 2am? I have to keep tracking for a mountain weekend. Towel is thrown for MBY. Expectations are now at zero
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
lol it isn’t already? If I leave until spring, who will be here to tell you guys how bad the Euro run is at 2am? I have to keep tracking for a mountain weekend. Towel is thrown for MBY. Expectations are now at zero
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jimmy i think ya'll in the upstate will see flakes before all is said and done as for me the fat lady has done her thing
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
These are pics I actually asked my dad to take, when he was leaving from Honduras, when there was convection around, probably should of mentioned that
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Yeah I was wondering about that anvil out there, wrote it off as a random cloud this time of the year, lol.
 
LovesSnowHatesRidges said:
Hey guys. I just wanna take this time to spoof ice for my actions yesterday. I let what the other person said get to me and I reacted in a way I’m ashamed of. I’m really not a troll. Please accept this apology.
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It’s all good man, we all love snow and hate warmth in winter. Snow is top priority for everyone and not seeing good signs tends to make people grumpy. We all have good days and bad.


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