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Misc Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade

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So, what does everyone consider to be a trend? I would say give something at least 24 hours one way or the other for it to be a positive or negative trend. If the models show something going the same way, progressing the same, positive or negative for 24 straight hours, then I would consider that a true trend in one direction versus the other.
24 hrs is a trend. But today's 12z EPS in my opinion matches what the teles show. A slightly positive PNA is the only tele in our favor. Which screams average temps with occasional cold shots like next week. So I'd like to know where all that deep sustained cold was coming from? Especially with the coldest anomalies on the other side of the pole.
 
Just be happy that the warm gully washers are ending and we are turning cooler. Once we cool off then watch for trends.
 
Urgh, figures. Heaven forbid some random wild horses on a remote island off the NC coast dont get their snow.
If a scenario like this was forecasted 12 hours beforehand I might get the urge to drive to my father in laws beach cottage in KDH..the only problem is he doesn’t have heat..so that could be a minor issue
 
If a scenario like this was forecasted 12 hours beforehand I might get the urge to drive to my father in laws beach cottage in KDH..the only problem is he doesn’t have heat..so that could be a minor issue
Man if that happens im driving my jeep down that way. I say go for it. Fix yourself a coffee and enjoy the ride!!
 
So, what does everyone consider to be a trend? I would say give something at least 24 hours one way or the other for it to be a positive or negative trend. If the models show something going the same way, progressing the same, positive or negative for 24 straight hours, then I would consider that a true trend in one direction versus the other.
You said you've read all post since Sunday, which I seriously doubt, because if you had you would've read (from some valuable posters) how the EPS, while colder, hasn't been as cold as the GEFS for one and was not showing the -EPO that the GEFS was to get us where we need to be. There have been other details mentioned by those posters too that were "concerning", the lack of blocking, etc and how, again while things were looking better, we also were close to things not working out. I'm not smart enough to explain it all but I've read enough and seen enough that I know the 12z eps is bearing truth to some of those concerns. Let me put it like this.... ever watch a favorite sports team, I'll say the Panthers, and they are moving the ball up and down the field but just can't get it in the end zone, FG after FG. They have a 9 point lead and "appear" to be dominating but you have the gut feeling, if one little thing goes the other teams way, it's over and sure enough, a fumble, a 3 and out, 2 quick scores and all of a sudden what looked so promising is now a big fat L. Well that can be this winter


Also, stop stirring the pot.. it's unhealthy and tiresome
 
10 Years ago when I started tracking, I didn’t know much but one thing I do remember is everyone wanted the energy to dig across the middle of the country and I think that’s what we’re going to need to happen for the day 8-10 storm. Dig baby dig. I feel like we will get there for parts of the Carolinas. Maybe
 



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I do agree with them that the EPO holds the key. I'm not sure how we're actually going to get real cold into the SE without it. Over the pole and the Atlantic side is never going to help us. It's been that way for like 5 years straight now. We know the GEFS lies when it shows the -EPO. I was hoping in the long range the EPS would come around. Well it came way around, lol.

We may actually be having too much STJ...it may be prohibiting the building of a nice western ridge. I don't know but it's always something. But my expectations are pretty much shot if the EPS doesn't bounce back.
 
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This is a good example, there is one maybe two members out of 50 that has the traditional -PNA signal with the ridge in the east. A few that do show troughing out west, have the whole US in a trough.
It's a misleading picture since its height change not anomaly

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I've recovered from the headache I had today for some reason (unrelated to y'all or the weather) and see that someone tried to stir the pot here earlier since the model analysis wasn't what they wanted to hear.

Better score with this next week as there's no telling what happens after that.
 
RNK Getting on board for late week. Maybe I'll get lucky and see something wintry!

FRIDAY NIGHT
Cloudy. A chance of rain and snow after midnight. Lows around 30. Chance of precipitation 30 percent.
SATURDAY
Freezing rain likely. Rain and snow likely in the morning, then rain in the afternoon. Little or no snow accumulation. Highs in the mid 40s. Chance of precipitation 90 percent.

SATURDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy. Rain in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight. Lows in the lower 30s. Chance of rain 90 percent.
 
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Can someone tell us what it would take to get this storm in Texas to continue moving East through the southern states rather than suppressed into the Gulf? I'd like to know what to look for and if there is even a chance. TIA

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