packfan98
Moderator
Well, that was a big step back for the EPS. We just really need one or two threats to produce to make many folks happy, but that pattern relax on the EPS is definitely concerning. Keep watching and cross your fingers!
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Misc Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
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Ilovesnow28
Member
Looks like reality is about to slap us in the face again with these models.... I know its early but hope we not getting excited for nothing as usual
NoSnowATL
Member
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Brick Tamland
Guest
I love how we have two days of good ensembles and a day of good model runs, trending better each run, and then one bad run everyone gets all scared.
whatalife
Moderator
packfan98
Moderator
Nobody has mentioned being scared. We are discussing every model run like we always do. The ones who like to whine, complain, or attempt to be funny come here. Most of those folks will make negative posts if it shows cold, snow, sleet, freezing rain, torch, rain, no rain, normal, etc...
Ilovesnow28
Member
I get your point but it's like this every year I mean we do live in the South... And everything has to come together at the right time with these models the back and forth can be nerve reckoning
Because heat is more likely to verify. That’s just the way it is. + anomalies are much more likely to verify at d10+. Persistent heat with a one run blip or cold and it’s easy to shrug off, however the opposite usually isn’t. We’ll see where we go from here. I know I’m rooting for cold and snow.
Your posts would be taken more seriously if you didn't phrase them such that everyone must be a f'ing moron besides you.
The extended range on the ensembles have considerably warmed over the past couple of days. Below is the trends for a few of the EPS runs starting with the glorious EPS run from Sunday that was so cold and snowy. I think even you can grasp this trend on the EPS.
Nobody is saying winter is over, cancel this cancel that...all we are saying is the last week of January isn't as promising as we once had hoped.
exactly.
The problem is people are still buying too much into the “mean”. Looking through the members its clear that we are still in a very progressive pattern.
The ensembles will warm up in certain time frames and cool in certain time frames as they get more consensus on the systems.
I just cannot get excited over long range model runs. So far this winter has been nothing short of a dumpster fire. I'll get excited when the NAM is showing snow in the short range, not climate models showing slightly BN temps in two weeks.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Even the mean didn't look too bad at 850. It's not too different from yesterday's 12Z.
EPS got me like 
Hopefully there’s an Amrmageddon Hell On Earth solution skewing the 12z EPS mean at 500 ??
Because all at the moment all signs say we screw up the one shot at a winterstorm next week then the pattern breaks down. That's what a lot of pros have been saying was coming and now the GEFS and the EPS both have it. Wake up!
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Brick Tamland
Guest
I wasn't talking about in this thread. I was talking about the January one.
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Brick Tamland
Guest
From everything I read from yesterday to just a couple of hours ago, it was a lot more positive than negative overall. There is no way anyone can read the posts and deny that. One bad run and everyone screams the sky is falling. It's just funny to me.
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