Its really a convective feedback issue where the model drops sfc pressures too much with that big convective line
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Misc Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
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GeorgiaGirl
Member
On the old GFS, suppression down to the islands below Florida usually would mean that the system would end up tracking through central-north Florida and potentially a winter storm for the southeast.
On this GFS, suppression down to the islands or anywhere in south Florida could mean a system that ends up as far north as cutting through the US.
Terrible...
On this GFS, suppression down to the islands or anywhere in south Florida could mean a system that ends up as far north as cutting through the US.
Terrible...
Avalanche
Member
What did I ever do to you man?
Bomb incoming to close this run out 
GeorgiaGirl
Member
We overdue for a February to work out, so watch a storm happen to derail some of the things me and my family need to get done in that month, although not that I'd mind at all.
Sometime in those two weeks, we gonna have a stretch of cold and a storm or two, then after that, we'll suddenly flip to spring like it has been since I came back home.
Sometime in those two weeks, we gonna have a stretch of cold and a storm or two, then after that, we'll suddenly flip to spring like it has been since I came back home.
This would be awesome 507dm in ohio
At least this is getting fun again..winter still has enough time left for 2 or 3 more rug pulls
NoSnowATL
Member
GeorgiaGirl
Member
yeeeep, my interest is peaked to about a 3 or 4, even if nothing were to happen to me, watching to see if a bomb gets set off from a phase is interesting, then February has to work out at some point again...doesn't it?
Snowed In
Member
I don't know about yall, but it would be awesome for someone to start a thread about memories on the Carolina crusher 20 years ago. Personally, I was in Charlotte during the storm and being only 8 years old, I don't remember a lot on it except that in W Charlotte we picked up about 6 inches. Little did I know, 30 miles SE of my location was getting over a foot.
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
We dancin again boys? Will Brick be back?
ajr
Member
This is impressive
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Logan Is An Idiot 01
Guest
Higher elevations in NC still getting crushed as that Low pulls north and throws precip back into the mountains..Philly gets mauled this run..damn
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Logan Is An Idiot 01
Guest
Then the cold air magically appears right when the precip moves out. This winter has been the worst
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I've seen/been thru much worse.
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Man, the .1 is so close to my house! All in!
Congratulations to the mid Atlantic weenies. I mean they never get any snow. Smdh
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Logan Is An Idiot 01
Guest
Winters? I haven't experienced a winter as bad this on my whole life
I'm awaiting the March I-85 special where we get something like we got in April 2019: cold rain for RDU but snow for west of I-85.
NoSnowATL
Member
We are close but still not there yet. Tennessee and NC still look like the big winners. Deep South will just keep chugging along....y’all mountains boys are looking good!
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
2011-12, 2005-06, seen and been thru worse.
Jessy89
Member
Mountains always get snow. I’ve always wanted to live somewhere above 4000ft in NC. Close to Tennessee boarder. Maybe one day I guess
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NoSnowATL
Member
Yea suck is suck. 2011-12 was the worst in my opinion. I think I wore shorts that whole winter. The grass never died that winter.
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Ill be a mountain boy next weekend!..contingent on this thing not turning into a interior NE special. In which case I’ll stay my ass at home..and try again the next weekend
whatalife
Moderator
I would like to know how BAMWX will explain this trend on the EPS day 14ish. I believe it trended colder since the 00z run...BTW one run isn’t a trend. SMH!
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NoSnowATL
Member
No let him, more he talks about warmth the more it keeps getting colder in the SE. Let him work his magic.
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Yeah there is no doubt 2012 was the crappiest of them all. If today's model runs are right we won't be having any boring discussions on worst winter anymore!
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I didn't see a single flake of snow in either of those winters living in Fayetteville, NC at the time and 2011-12 was by far & away the worst. DJF 2011-12 temp wise wasn't the warmest, but March 2012 took it to another level. We were well on our way to summer by March.
IMO, so far for RDU, this winter is even worse than 2005-06. That winter wasn't as warm as this one, and we at least had a few flurry events. This winter hasn't had anything close to frozen unless you count an isolated 5 minute sleet shower in November.
If we get any measurable snow at all, this winter tops 2005-06. But I wouldn't bet on that right now.
If we get any measurable snow at all, this winter tops 2005-06. But I wouldn't bet on that right now.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah there's been a consistent trend towards colder the last several runs despite the 0z hiccup.
Bamwx is all in on the warmth week 2, going w/ +3-4F around here is definitely ballsy & probably wrong.
Anyone ever been duck hunting and might have some pointers?? Getting to go Sunday evening to Arkansas to go on a paid duck hunting trip..
Make sure you close your eyes when you shoot
Downeastnc
Member
I use to duck hunt all the time not so much anymore....you will however crush them in Arkansas just listen to the guide.....
basic rules no sky busting, no pointing loaded gun at people. let the birds work etc
The Etiquette of Duck Hunting
www.tn.gov
olhausen
Member
I think anyone living in the upper south should be happy with the trends of the last week or so. This pattern we are in is definitely one that could have a storm pop at anytime now. I’m gaining more confidence by the day that at least here in Tennessee we are going to end the streak of 3 straight above normal February’s. And even if we don’t end below normal I still think we have a good shot at some February snow. I believe it’s been 3 years in a row of no snow in February for Middle Tennessee, so as I love pointing out the law of averages are going to do their magic soon.
16-17 didn't match the suck of 11-12 because it actually snowed that winter. But wasn't it the warmest?
Dont shoot the dog that pops up when you miss
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
2011-12 is actually the warmest as a whole in the SE US region, only by the smallest of margins over 16-17.
Also, 3 of the 5 warmest winters on record in the SE US have occurred in the 2010s.
Snowed In
Member
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