Storms always end up way NW unless it's a coastal you need to come NWRemember when this was an epic deep south snowstorm LOL
Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Misc Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
- Start date
- Status
Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
whatalife
Moderator
At least I can continue to play golf. Winter might be canceled after next week.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Maybe you guys and gals can score in the eastern Piedmont's to the coastal areas next week!
Maybe just maybe you get your 15 ice pellets and maybe just maybe this coastal throws me 15 flakes, call it a win and move on to spring
Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
WXinCanton
Member
We could use a little less rain down here. Courses are pretty muddy with the dormant grass. Yes I'm be picky with my 1st world problems, lolAt least I can continue to play golf. Winter might be canceled after next week.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sounds good to me! Hoping I can recover enough by Spring from the back surgery I had in late October to get back out and play?At least I can continue to play golf. Winter might be canceled after next week.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
L
Logan Is An Idiot 01
Guest
Cold West warm east. Seems to be the theme every winterJust as dead as winter will be after next week...Got to love your transient cold pattern change...Day 10-15 on the Euro look wonder...
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
cd2play
Member
Just like clockwork, we have now kicked the can into February.
whatalife
Moderator
Yes. The courses where I play are almost to waterlogged to play on.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I haven't played since September, But I'm sure they are a wet muddy mess here too!
But that Canadian blocking though.....
And that's not a month that has been great recently. Might be time to kick the can to 20-21
NoSnowATL
Member
6 straight crappy winters in a row for me. Not setting records yet but getting close. My early guess is next year will suck as well but just not as bad. I’ll say 21-22 it switches. Just a guess.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
BHS1975
Member
It's amazing that models nail an awful pattern 15 days out but let a cold pattern show in the long range it always fails. Theres forces unknown the last few years to keep a cold west warm east. It just doesn't make sense.
Personally I think the NAO is to blame. We simply can't lock in a trough in the east and it have staying power without it. Even a -EPO is usually transient like 13-14 where it still averaged AN.
Most say the NAO isn't predictable beyond two weeks and constantly changes. No way you can convince me that almost 10 years without it in winter is just a coincidence and bad luck. There is something causing it and anyone who can find it out has just cracked the code on why we've been in such a disaster pattern for years now.
Personally I think the NAO is to blame. We simply can't lock in a trough in the east and it have staying power without it. Even a -EPO is usually transient like 13-14 where it still averaged AN.
Most say the NAO isn't predictable beyond two weeks and constantly changes. No way you can convince me that almost 10 years without it in winter is just a coincidence and bad luck. There is something causing it and anyone who can find it out has just cracked the code on why we've been in such a disaster pattern for years now.
LickWx
Member
GEPS ? Isn't that the most cold biased of them all. Look man , if your wishcasting it say it but if your model hugging favorite models and ignoring the ones that don’t look like you want and trying to pass it off as a forecast then that’s disingenuous and no better than joe bastardi.
In other news enjoy the upcoming cold shot because while warmth is supported afterwards. Do we really know ? I’m probably the only one here who loved last weeks warmth . Almost made 5 straight nights above 60 in January at RDU. Had it not been for Wednesday morning breaking the streak we would have made it!
The Avenger today.
The cold comes next week, backs off for a while then comes back February into March! #CFS aka Feb 2015!
#lol
The cold comes next week, backs off for a while then comes back February into March! #CFS aka Feb 2015!
#lol
Roswellian
Member
Help me understand something because you guys and gals (all of you) know more than me here. Day 10-15 cold and stormy, toss it because it’s fantasy land. Day 10-15 heat dome book it as gospel truth. I know we have been literally burned lately but it just seems inconsistent to me unless we are just being cynical.
Welp 2 years ago right now it was starting to snow and we had a winter storm warning. 2nd to last time it snowed here
NoSnowATL
Member
It’s hard to get cold without a source near by. I also check the MJO. The PV would help too if if actually stayed on our side of the planet for a while. That’s my way of thinking.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
This is a good question. I think the answer is two-fold. First, the longer ranges models that most of us can access without having to pay (GFS, GEFS, GEPS) very frequently show below to much below average temps at range during most winters. This is a pretty well documented bias. Therefore, it's wise to incorporate that bias into one's expectations. The EPS isn't as bad in this regard, but most of us don't have access to it unless someone posts it for us.
Secondly, for whatever reason, the majority of winters of late just want to be warm. Maybe there's some cynicism mixed in, but the fact of the matter is, it's easier to be warm of late than cold. Given that, a model showing cold, while nice to enjoy, just given persistence (and bias as noted above) seems less likely to be right than one that is showing warm. That doesn't mean it always works out that way, but when you experience something like this over and over and over, you sort of develop the model that cried wolf mindset.
One day, hopefully, this will change. But until it does, it's probably wise to be skeptical of longer range cold patterns showing up.
Roswellian
Member
Dropping some serious knowledge on a Friday morning. Thanks for the thoughtful response and education
NoSnowATL
Member
Imagine if you got a T and 15 mins away got 6in. Yea that happened!
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
NoSnowATL
Member
Yep. That’s why I am how I am, years of being tortured by the winter gods. My name should be NoSnowMe instead of NoSnowATL.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I'm hoping that the switch will flip soon, and when it does, we will flip to a warm West and a cold East for several years in a row.
Ilovesnow28
Member
Man it sucks seeing other areas of the continent get snow even the coastal sections of the southeast may get a chance at seeing something while my snowless streak of two years continue
cd2play
Member
Delayed but not denied
For the first time in a long time I have nothing to add. The models sort of speak for themselves. I am looking forward to some 20’s and pit fires next week. I’ve also started model watching for Banner Elk. If a decent 4-6” event slides through on the weekend sometime this month I’m loading the family up in the old Chevrolet and hitting the road for a couple days.
Actually watched it today too...he sounds like he's been taking a beating. But, he definitely is hedging...MJO problems. I just wish one year he would forecast a blow torch for the east. He was so close this year to going warm but then caved.
Same here, Jimmy. I’ve already decided I will load up the truck and get a cabin in gatlinburg if I can time a weekend storm. That has been a tradition for us every now and then but I can’t even find a storm for the mountains. I am sure they will get a chance in February and hopefully we can make a trip.
@Jimmy throw the D____ towel..............
Welp, @Rain Cold , your epic GFS 384 hour holy grail pattern has vanished and turned to this. Man I was really rooting for you. Cold bottled at the pole is good, right? If you squint you can see a shade of green inching towards the pole in Russia. A couple theousand more miles and we may be able to pop a -AO. Something to watch
I love Gatlinburg! They might have a shot later next month but I would look higher. Much higher. High elevations up around Boone can score in a crappy pattern. And if that doesn’t seem possible later in Feb, SnowShoe WV it is!
NYET!
Yeah, the vortex is way to tight. No AO, no NAO, no EPO, no nothing to break it apart and displace it south.
This is why blocking and/or ridging out west is so important for us. Can it snow without blocking? Yes. But blocking displaces the PV or part of it southward enough so that cold air is available to us. Those little ripples/waves in the flow up there are just going to circle around that light blue area, with high pressure riding along in their wake. But they're way up there.
You look at some of these EPS maps and see all that blue stuff over the southern US, and it looks all nice. But it's just representative of lower heights, largely induced by the STJ. It doesn't snow just because the maps show a blue area through your backyard. It doesn't snow just because there's red in Canada. It doesn't snow just because a storm tracks south of you. We need a mechanism to allow that cold way up there to funnel down. Clearly, that image won't get it done.
But it's not over. Disaster hasn't run the board yet. We still have the IWishItWouldSnow category left, that includes a daily double.
February is our best climo month -- for $200
El Ninos favor blocking late in the winter -- for $400
The CFS is cold -- for $600
So is the JMA -- for $800
BAMwx has thrown in the towel -- for $1000
I may have to stay away from this thread a while
Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
I can't tell you how bad I felt for yall in Columbia. I still do to this day. It messed up Sumter County pretty good.
- Status