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Misc Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade

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Broken024 said:
What happened boys? We were all high fiving 48 hours ago.
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Well 48 hours before that we were complaining about how bad the pattern looked. The models are extremely inconsistent right now as they deal with inputs. The euro/eps mjo going towards phase 6 and the GEFS/cfs going towards phase 7/8. The models are still trying to sort through the complex pattern. And this means we are seeing runs that are warm and some that are cold and trying to deal with them as they change. An example of this is the 12z eps coming in much warmer than the 00z which had us being bn for a while.
 
BIG FROSTY said:
Just hold on a dang minute y’all !




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8e5f14860f76d6b3b52b0ab1d7d8e87b.jpg



I wonder how good that model is? First I’ve seen someone talk about it.


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SD said:
Yeah this is trash. Its like 05-06 but somehow much worse

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The bane of watching every model on every run, seeing something good popping and then pooping ... does the high five down every time ...
 
WxWatch said:
Oh don't worry, we'll be high fiving again
My storm that I've been calling could become a legitimate winter storm to track within 3-5 days.

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Your storm? Give me exact dates and some specifics....
 
pcbjr said:
The bane of watching every model on every run, seeing something good popping and then pooping ... does the high five down every time ...
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Yep if shouldn't have posted that either realized I've been doing this for 15 freaking years and the ROI hasn't been worth it

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winterwx said:
This is wishcasting at it’s finest my friends.
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Yeah, yeah, I've heard that before. There's nothing wrong making predictions. Making predictions isn't always necessary wishcasting. Making a prediction takes 3 steps: Observation, analyzing and extrapolation. It's someone's choice to take someone's prediction serious or not.

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WxWatch said:
Yeah, yeah, I've heard that before. There's nothing wrong making predictions. Making predictions isn't always necessary wishcasting. Making a prediction takes 3 steps: Observation, analyzing and extrapolation. It's someone's choice to take someone's prediction serious or not.

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and a 4th ... humility and an admission you missed it (as I did with the October call for an epic but transient January cold) ... least I got the warm December right, and the transient part of any cool in January right, but I was so convinced it was 1985 coming again) ...
 
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WxWatch said:
Yeah, yeah, I've heard that before. There's nothing wrong making predictions. Making predictions isn't always necessary wishcasting. Making a prediction takes 3 steps: Observation, analyzing and extrapolation. It's someone's choice to take someone's prediction serious or not.

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Sounds like it to me..

wishcasting. The act of interpreting information or a situation in a way that casts it as favorable or desired, despite the fact that there is no evidence for such a conclusion.
 
WeatherNC said:
This Winter sucks. Sub 530dm H5 heights don’t even make it to CONUS on the 384hr GFS for 2/1, sad.
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There's always hope I reckon. The 2nd half of feb hasn't been bad historically. Its just so deflating to see good things only for it to flop

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metwannabe said:
Sounds like it to me..

wishcasting. The act of interpreting information or a situation in a way that casts it as favorable or desired, despite the fact that there is no evidence for such a conclusion.
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I mean, yes, my predictions do include thoughts that have no evidence to support it. On the other hand, my predictions do also include trends that have been occurring and also what changes now, will change something in the future, "butterfly effect." Observing those changes and using your experience/knowledge can help you determine what could lead into the future. Not all of my predictions are based from just personal thoughts.

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NoSnowATL said:
8e5f14860f76d6b3b52b0ab1d7d8e87b.jpg



I wonder how good that model is? First I’ve seen someone talk about it.


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Horrible model, this is what it had for last winter. He says that people need to stop worshipping models, as he shows the worst possible model for the MJO.
BOMM_phase_33m_small.gif
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
That low solar cycle theory is sure working isn’t it
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Lag effect lag effect! See, there's always something else to go along with the other thing that might or might not cause the first thing to matter unless the second thing does something to help the first thing unless it hinders it. And don't even get me started on the third thing.
 
Rain Cold said:
Lag effect lag effect! See, there's always something else to go along with the other thing that might or might not cause the first thing to matter unless the second thing does something to help the first thing unless it hinders it. And don't even get me started on the third thing.
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You beat me to it by a split second ?
 
WxWatch said:
I mean, yes, my predictions do include thoughts that have no evidence to support it. On the other hand, my predictions do also include trends that have been occurring and also what changes now, will change something in the future, "butterfly effect." Observing those changes and using your experience/knowledge can help you determine what could lead into the future. Not all of my predictions are based from just personal thoughts.

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Man, I hear ya, but all the experience and intuition in the world can't make it snow when you got 50s and 60sall over the place.
 
Ollie Williams said:
Horrible model, this is what it had for last winter. He says that people need to stop worshipping models, as he shows the worst possible model for the MJO.
View attachment 31231
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Isn't the bomm ba ba bomm baba baba bomm the aussie model? I heard that was good, but I haven't ever actually seen it be good.
 
The heat blobs in the EPAC has been jacking up the pattern for the last few years by not allowing the Aleutian low to form.


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