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Misc Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade

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These GEFS runs have me feeling a little giddy...

GIDDY UP!!!
Yessss
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If the ensambles are so good, why is the operational so terrible? Is it because the operational is the FV3 and the ensambles are the old GFS?
 
Didn't you just post a video a month ago about a 200 hour gfs run?

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I did actually, but I am now backing away from trying to make predictions based from what is shown in the mid to long range. It seems like everytime I make predictions based from something that does have consistency in the mid range, the models have to flip afterwards. You remember that "winter storm" the Euro showed back in December a week out? A lot of people (including myself) thought the "winter storm" was going to happen since it was from the Euro and a week out! Even though it was just from one run, it was still believable since it was from the Euro a week out. This has made me start using extreme caution with these models this winter season, even with something that shows on the Euro a week out. Solid consistency of something back to back on every model run is your friend.

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Does anybody have any maps from February 2014? I've seen a few from American, but want to know if anybody has any better ones?
That was a fun storm. I remember driving on a snow covered I385 because there weren’t enough plows around the upstate to keep them clear. Greenville was an absolute ghost town that night. Fun times looking back
 
That was a fun storm. I remember driving on a snow covered I385 because there weren’t enough plows around the upstate to keep them clear. Greenville was an absolute ghost town that night. Fun times looking back
That’s literally the last “good” storm we had around here
 
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