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Misc Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade

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KyloG said:
It seems like it's teetering on greatness or mediocreness. EPS showing a loop back into 6, but awfully close to 6 again. I am good with it looping around 6-8 for the next 6 weeks...if we can avoid 5.


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There seems to be a general consensus that the CFS is leading the way with the mjo. Everyone seems pretty confident it'll at least get into 8. Will it matter? Like you mentioned before we got it last year where we wanted it all for naught. I just really want the EPS to show a -EPO long range, then I may be a bit more confident in a better pattern last week of January. It may start to show it when it starts to show the mjo getting into high amp 7 then 8. Perhaps that's the missing element between the CFS/GEFS and EPS. I dunno.

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SD said:
Both fists sir

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SnowNiner said:
There seems to be a general consensus that the CFS is leading the way with the mjo. Everyone seems pretty confident it'll at least get into 8. Will it matter? Like you mentioned before we got it last year where we wanted it all for naught. I just really want the EPS to show a -EPO long range, then I may be a bit more confident in a better pattern last week of January. It may start to show it when it starts to show the mjo getting into high amp 7 then 8. Perhaps that's the missing element between the CFS/GEFS and EPS. I dunno.

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That looks much better if it can translate to the left of the COD like Larry pointed out.
 
Now before all of you snow fanatics start salivating about a chase keep in mind I've only got room for 2 people, rent ain't cheap and it would have to be perfectly timed and quick. See your specks of flakes on the car hood and get the heck out..... now any takers?

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I'm about to be lurking the mid-atlantic forum over on amwx this week. If snow was falling during a ski trip that would be pretty great
 
Ilovesnow28 said:
This winter is full of crap every time we see winter storms pop up it keeps getting pushed back... I think we maybe getting fooled with these model runs having us think that the light is at the end of the tunnel...
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The light at the end of the tunnel is often a tractor trailer traveling head on in the wrong lane. But sometimes it’s a Dairy Queen off in the distance
 
I think we’re about to see something pop inside d8 very soon. I am posting that thought here in the whamby so if it doesn’t happen, which it probably won’t, then you all can’t hold me to it.
 
Now is the time to make any last minute purchases of wood chippings for animals, ice melt or kerosene. No one can tell you where or how much winter winter weather is coming but the writing is on the wall for much cooler temperatures after this week. Beat the public before the media scares them into a frenzy. Cut back any weak trees or limbs that could cause damage. Clean out ditches to prevent flooding.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I think we’re about to see something pop inside d8 very soon. I am posting that thought here in the whamby so if it doesn’t happen, which it probably won’t, then you all can’t hold me to it.
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Yeah I scanned the GEFS and the pattern generally looks good a week from today, but as of right now it's chaos on determining anything at all if you look at the ensembles. Could be anywhere from a major blizzard in some areas, to gulf flurries, to rain in Cuba and anything in between. Shooting arrows at a target. Don't have an idea.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I think we’re about to see something pop inside d8 very soon. I am posting that thought here in the whamby so if it doesn’t happen, which it probably won’t, then you all can’t hold me to it.
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Everything I'm seeing shows we should have the cold on the 21st (day 8) and 22nd to work with.
 
WxWatch said:
I highly doubt there would be a winter storm during the first cold surge next week. Time is closing in now, and there hasn't been any solid consistency of a winter storm on the GFS or the Euro. I'm officially writing off a significant winter storm for next week. And honestly, I'm so glad I did not fall for all the "noise" from the ensembles. If the ensembles showed that kind of snow like we've been seeing in a 5-7 day window instead, I'd take it more serious. There needs to be time for things to "adjust" within the pattern if that makes sense. We would have a better chance at scoring a winter storm during transitions from moderation of temps to cold surges, not soon as a strong cold surge takes place. However, sometimes we do get lucky and score a winter storm as soon as a cold surge takes place. I'm just going with what normally ends up happening instead of following a "fine line."

Looking at today's 12z GFS 500mb, this does not look good for winter storm development next week if you ask me if this 500mb pattern holds true. Massive ridge to the north with a strong high pushing south from Canada. We'll have the cold, but as I've been saying, the southern branch will most likely become less active and suppressed during the first cold surge. There could be a chance of minor frozen precipitation with that system on the 24th at the onset. The high pressure rushes east before that system gets kicked out. That is not ideal for a massive widespread winter storm, for CAD, yes. I have a good feeling for the last week this month for a winter storm. So, I'm going all IN for the last week.
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Posts like this belong in whamby if your gonna speak in absolutes and take indirect jabs at a poster following the ensembles. Very little scientific information was shared as to why you are throwing out these random darts at the wall.
 
NoSnowATL said:
Kirk Mellish sees a pattern flip. He is really good at seeing winter storms before most.


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He missed the 2014 "Snowjam" so bad in 2014 I remember him taking some time off and kind of apologizing. I quit following him after that. His forecast for the Atlanta area that day was partially the reason thousands were stranded. He was, and maybe still is, the most listened to voice in the area.
 
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