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Misc Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade

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accu35 said:
Dont give up man, we will see something soon
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At no one point have I even considered giving up or waffled even a little bit on when I expected the pattern to change in late January (Jan 25-30). If I feel like there's a significant change in my thinking going forward, I'll be sure to let everyone know. It honestly sucks we couldn't get a storm in early January but the period was highlighted several weeks in advance by myself as one of interest and had the potential to produce a storm, which it nearly did in NC.

The calls for "winter is over" are nothing short of premature, short-sighted, and are setting those individuals up for failure. When you look at who's saying these things and their track record, you shouldn't be the least bit surprised.

This is from a week and a half ago on Dec 29th:

"It usually takes about 10-15 days for the pattern to turn favorable following West Pacific forcing in the heart of winter, hence my call for the pattern to turn yet again around roughly January 25-30"

"January 25 thru early Feb: .... A more favorable pattern for wintry weather returns to the SE US, potentially persisting into at least early February."

https://southernwx.com/community/threads/january-2020-operation-thaw-alaska.663/page-22#post-224235
 
It’s great to see the LR modeling indicating a much needed pattern change and I’m optimistic that the pattern will shift to a more favorable one. But I will keep my expectations in check until these changes show up inside 7-10 days.
 
WxWatch said:
Ouch, 0z GEFS shows the ridge holding it's place over the east by the 20th. Highly doubt there will be any winter storm chances with this. Winter is over far as I'm concerned. This sucks!
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It’s a shame some are still putting faith in the Gfs and it’s ensemble .. look at the EURO and it’s ensembles which have a 10x better track record .. pattern change shows up Jan 18-25 ... cmon guys we know better
 
WxWatch said:
Ouch, 0z GEFS shows the ridge holding it's place over the east by the 20th. Highly doubt there will be any winter storm chances with this. Winter is over far as I'm concerned. This sucks!
20c8e0a9757195e9fcc1b02b546bc898.jpg


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Don’t fall for it man...... we have a long way to go before winter is over
 
accu35 said:
Wow!!! I've never seen you get like this lol. Winter isn't over my friend, just a bad run. As long as we can score before the 20th, which is possible rest of winter can do want it wants
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Exactly!!! Thank you.
 
I know and fully believe that this warmth can’t last the whole winter and I also know that the majority of y’all saying winter is over are in for a surprise when winter does come back
 
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