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Misc Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade

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KyloG said:
The CFS is like the hottest girl in the bar right now...we cower and then avert our eyes so we don’t get caught staring. But we know how the night is going to end.

The CFS weekly has been pretty steady with last week of Jan flip. It’s had a run here or there that wasn’t great but all in all been steady.
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CFS is the new DGEX. And she is ach oh tee hot.
 
SimeonNC said:
January looks to be AN for most of the month and I don't have much hopes for Feburary or March.

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Even if January ends up being AN, that doesn't mean it won't be cold enough during it to snow at some point.

And then there's Fab Feb/March.....
 
BirdManDoomW said:
If Denver Colorado went snowless in December for the first time in 117 years, I’m okay with people saying it may not snow in Charlotte this winter. Although, I would never bet on that.
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Except Denver didn't go snowless. They got snow late in the month.
 
Just to be clear on my post about punting winter if we keep seeing the same pattern on models into Feb with the MJO looping back to the warm phases, it means the pattern and punting met winter. Not individual potential snowstorms, and not March. March is a spring month meterologically. Doesn't matter how much snow falls or what the pattern is, or where sun is on March 20th etc.

But maybe I won't even have to get to the punting if today's EPS is on to something. I still am skeptical that it'll be anything more than a 10-14 day window before the Pac goes to poop again, but I'll take that window any winter. End of Jan first of February is prime time.
 
SimeonNC said:
January looks to be AN for most of the month and I don't have much hopes for Feburary or March.

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Yeah, I think CLT technically has never in recorded history, or like 100 years or something gotten zero snow. There's been a bunch of "traces" with no measurable snow (few sleet pellets counts as "trace"). I can't say I feel optimistic we get a decent event but I doubt we break the all time record and see zilch. but I'm kinda feeling you man. Can't give up yet but this western trough pattern does seems like it wants to hang around. We'll see.
 
metwannabe said:
Remember when we used to track actual winter weather threats and not pattern changes? Those were the days.....
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I remember as a kid when I would radar watch, I would hope the stronger snow bands would track northeastward into my backyard. Now when I radar watch, I hope for the rain/snow line to move another 80 miles south to include my backyard
 
SnowNiner said:
Yeah, I think CLT technically has never in recorded history, or like 100 years or something gotten zero snow. There's been a bunch of "traces" with no measurable snow (few sleet pellets counts as "trace"). I can't say I feel optimistic we get a decent event but I doubt we break the all time record and see zilch. but I'm kinda feeling you man. Can't give up yet but this western trough pattern does seems like it wants to hang around. We'll see.
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I counted 11 years with a trace in CLT. As far as I'm concerned that should count as snowless.
 
KyloG said:
The CFS is like the hottest girl in the bar right now...we cower and then avert our eyes so we don’t get caught staring. But we know how the night is going to end.

The CFS weekly has been pretty steady with last week of Jan flip. It’s had a run here or there that wasn’t great but all in all been steady.
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Yes we do
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Any bets on whether the latest model trends are indicative of a true improvement to come later this month or is this instead just another fake-out? As emotionally invested as some here at least appear to be, be prepared for it being another fake (I assume nobody would be surprised) and hope it isn’t.
 
GaWx said:
Any bets on whether the latest model trends are indicative of a true improvement to come later this month or is this instead just another fake-out? As emotionally invested as some here at least appear to be, be prepared for it being another fake (I assume nobody would be surprised) and hope it isn’t.
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I will call fake until I see something within 5 days. Haven’t seen it yet all year.


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NoSnowATL said:
I will call fake until I see something within 5 days. Haven’t seen it yet all year.


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Exactly! I want to see a legitimate board wide winter storm on the models within the 5 - 7 day window that's shows on each model run, back to back! Tired of literally going after fake clown snowfall maps that have no chance at verifying!

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ForsythSnow said:
I find it funny how people are throwing away winter because of a statistic and nothing immediately in the short term. I know the statistics are there for a reason, but sometimes just using climo isn't a good idea for a pattern that isn't usual. If we used climo alone to forecast we'd be in the stone age of weather forecasting and you couldn't trust anything. I think that once we dislodge that ridge in the NPAC, we'll get something. No way that lasts for 2 months nonstop. It'll come back eventually, but when that comes open and we get a +PNA, then all it takes is one shot of energy and cold and we'll be on a good path.
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Well the pattern better start changing fast because the "winters" are short in the south. As it gets late in the season and if the pattern don't favor cold and active storms, forget it.

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