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Misc Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade

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ForsythSnow said:
Saying this on the 6th of January isn't exactly something that is likely. I'd wait until Feb 15th to say a thing like that. I've seen winter flip in Feb before a lot of times and it may just be one of those years. I still doubt we go the entire year without a legitimate large threat for someone.
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FS - Agree 100% with the message ... but 1 question ... based on my far away reading ... why would snow be a "threat"? Seems it would sooth some souls ... not dishearten ...
 
Before winter started I thought ok we may have multiple winter storms. Based on all the forecast for above average snowfall. Now I’m thinking we get one snowfall and maybe get our yearly average in that one snowfall for a lot of areas of the southeast. I least I hope


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SimeonNC said:
January looks to be AN for most of the month and I don't have much hopes for Feburary or March.

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I mean I understand what you are saying but you are ignoring the fact that historically most of our snow climo is after 1/10-1/15. I'd much rather see a warm pattern breaking down at this point than a warm one showing up.

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I find it funny how people are throwing away winter because of a statistic and nothing immediately in the short term. I know the statistics are there for a reason, but sometimes just using climo isn't a good idea for a pattern that isn't usual. If we used climo alone to forecast we'd be in the stone age of weather forecasting and you couldn't trust anything. I think that once we dislodge that ridge in the NPAC, we'll get something. No way that lasts for 2 months nonstop. It'll come back eventually, but when that comes open and we get a +PNA, then all it takes is one shot of energy and cold and we'll be on a good path.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Saying this on the 6th of January isn't exactly something that is likely. I'd wait until Feb 15th to say a thing like that. I've seen winter flip in Feb before a lot of times and it may just be one of those years. I still doubt we go the entire year without a legitimate large threat for someone.
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Hey I mean even I would consider punting if we get to 2/6 and the models are a disaster until day 16. Even then though you have to hedge your bets toward it being another BN march this year

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SD said:
I mean I understand what you are saying but you are ignoring the fact that historically most of our snow climo is after 1/10-1/15. I'd much rather see a warm pattern breaking down at this point than a warm one showing up.

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Fwiw, the 50th percentile/halfway point in the winter is ~ January 25th & there are more big storms in the 2nd half of winter than the front half esp once you get to ~mid Feb-early March.
 
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If Denver Colorado went snowless in December for the first time in 117 years, I’m okay with people saying it may not snow in Charlotte this winter. Although, I would never bet on that.
 
Rain Cold said:
I have never in my life seen so many good CFS maps posted. You KNOW what I know that means. :D Sign of the times, I guess.
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The CFS is like the hottest girl in the bar right now...we cower and then avert our eyes so we don’t get caught staring. But we know how the night is going to end.

The CFS weekly has been pretty steady with last week of Jan flip. It’s had a run here or there that wasn’t great but all in all been steady.
 
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