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Misc Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade

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Ollie Williams said:
Lol! Saw this on Twitter.
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That's horrible.
 
I can tell you what, if we score a snow storm sometime late month we'll be lucky honestly after this crappy pattern. I'm skeptical of a winter storm happening though.

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WxWatch said:
I can tell you what, if we score a snow storm sometime late month we'll be lucky honestly after this crappy pattern. I'm skeptical of a winter storm happening though.

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I been at the bottom of the cliff since early December and still don't have any sort of confidence about seeing any winter storm at all this winter.... Until we see any winter storm that pops up under 5 days and not 200 hrs or beyond...I don't believe any of it
 
Ilovesnow28 said:
I been at the bottom of the cliff since early December and still don't have any sort of confidence about seeing any winter storm at all this winter.... Until we see any winter storm that pops up under 5 days and not 200 hrs or beyond...I don't believe any of it
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I’m with you. Get something under 4-5 days. Then I’ll watch.


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WxWatch said:
I can tell you what, if we score a snow storm sometime late month we'll be lucky honestly after this crappy pattern. I'm skeptical of a winter storm happening though.

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I’m becoming less skeptical with the enormous amount of support we’re seeing from all models in not only operational but also the ensembles .. obviously they can all be wrong sometimes .. but sometimes the models just aren’t wrong they see what’s coming and that is actually what is coming sometimes lol
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
I’m becoming less skeptical with the enormous amount of support we’re seeing from all models in not only operational but also the ensembles .. obviously they can all be wrong sometimes .. but sometimes the models just aren’t wrong they see what’s coming and that is actually what is coming sometimes lol
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I can understand what you're saying. But there's no need to get excited by "noise" that's in the 200+/300+ range cause it's all speculation. I would much rather get excited over a winter storm that has solid consistency in a 7 day window instead of the "noise" in the mid to long range. I just don't want to be disappointed, coming to find out none of the "winter storms" that show up don't verify.

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WxWatch said:
I can understand what you're saying. But there's no need to get excited by "noise" that's in the 200+/300+ range cause it's all speculation. I would much rather get excited over a winter storm that has solid consistency in a 7 day window instead of the "noise" in the mid to long range. I just don't want to be disappointed, coming to find out none of the "winter storms" that show up don't verify.

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Didn't you just post a video a month ago about a 200 hour gfs run?

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WxWatch said:
I can understand what you're saying. But there's no need to get excited by "noise" that's in the 200+/300+ range cause it's all speculation. I would much rather get excited over a winter storm that has solid consistency in a 7 day window instead of the "noise" in the mid to long range. I just don't want to be disappointed, coming to find out none of the "winter storms" that show up don't verify.

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I definitely agree... We been going through this same thing with the models all year rinse wash and repeat
 
WxWatch said:
I can understand what you're saying. But there's no need to get excited by "noise" that's in the 200+/300+ range cause it's all speculation. I would much rather get excited over a winter storm that has solid consistency in a 7 day window instead of the "noise" in the mid to long range. I just don't want to be disappointed, coming to find out none of the "winter storms" that show up don't verify.

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What the ensembles are showing in that time frame is anything but noise, there is a ton of consistency on a pattern change. You have to look at more than the GFS OP run and you most certainly have to look at more than storm specifics at this lead time. Besides somebody wants to get excited over a 2 or 300 hour fantasy snowstorm so what?

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If the ensambles are so good, why is the operational so terrible? Is it because the operational is the FV3 and the ensambles are the old GFS?
 
SD said:
Didn't you just post a video a month ago about a 200 hour gfs run?

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I did actually, but I am now backing away from trying to make predictions based from what is shown in the mid to long range. It seems like everytime I make predictions based from something that does have consistency in the mid range, the models have to flip afterwards. You remember that "winter storm" the Euro showed back in December a week out? A lot of people (including myself) thought the "winter storm" was going to happen since it was from the Euro and a week out! Even though it was just from one run, it was still believable since it was from the Euro a week out. This has made me start using extreme caution with these models this winter season, even with something that shows on the Euro a week out. Solid consistency of something back to back on every model run is your friend.

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Does anybody have any maps from February 2014? I've seen a few from American, but want to know if anybody has any better ones?
 
Ollie Williams said:
Does anybody have any maps from February 2014? I've seen a few from American, but want to know if anybody has any better ones?
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That was a fun storm. I remember driving on a snow covered I385 because there weren’t enough plows around the upstate to keep them clear. Greenville was an absolute ghost town that night. Fun times looking back
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
That was a fun storm. I remember driving on a snow covered I385 because there weren’t enough plows around the upstate to keep them clear. Greenville was an absolute ghost town that night. Fun times looking back
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That’s literally the last “good” storm we had around here
 
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