I hear you! Just providing guidance to the young singles out there.Good point. But I’m happily married to the best “model” now. Best wife, best mother best friend! I can’t get the snow where I am now, though.
ETA: I'd take the snowstorm too.
I hear you! Just providing guidance to the young singles out there.Good point. But I’m happily married to the best “model” now. Best wife, best mother best friend! I can’t get the snow where I am now, though.
Check out Seattle's forecast if you want to be miserable. Starting Monday: Snow, snow, snow, snow, snow, snow, snow......RAh has a chance of rain in the forecast from Saturday night through Thursday. Going to be a miserable week.
Check out Seattle's forecast if you want to be miserable. Starting Monday: Snow, snow, snow, snow, snow, snow, snow......
My inner goober is saying “The snow is on the way.”, but if I had to bet my bank account on it I’d say there’s a greasy beard hair in my cheesy chicken tortelliniSo after 3 days of positive model trends, this is the first morning we're starting to see some doubt creep in. PV moving over to the other side of the globe, cold air being delayed, Pacific turning back around, etc. Not that any of those are invalid...they actually are quite valid concerns. Just noting the trends. If it does go to crap, we can look back and say that the first hints of that trend were showing themselves the morning of 1/10.
Hopefully, that won't be the case.
Not thrilled with the D10 eps and how its handling the Siberia/Ak/arctic pattern but at least its showing a less enthusiastic version. First hurdle is the trough retrograding around d7 and the pinched off high over AK.So after 3 days of positive model trends, this is the first morning we're starting to see some doubt creep in. PV moving over to the other side of the globe, cold air being delayed, Pacific turning back around, etc. Not that any of those are invalid...they actually are quite valid concerns. Just noting the trends. If it does go to crap, we can look back and say that the first hints of that trend were showing themselves the morning of 1/10.
Hopefully, that won't be the case.
Well at least it's a beard hairMy inner goober is saying “The snow is on the way.”, but if I had to bet my bank account on it I’d say there’s a greasy beard hair in my cheesy chicken tortellini
Hahah, I feel the same way! I want to believe that there is snow on the way, but then again at the same time, I'm like, "hold on horses."My inner goober is saying “The snow is on the way.”, but if I had to bet my bank account on it I’d say there’s a greasy beard hair in my cheesy chicken tortellini
It's kind of like eating rice and watching the last one crawl away.My inner goober is saying “The snow is on the way.”, but if I had to bet my bank account on it I’d say there’s a greasy beard hair in my cheesy chicken tortellini
Ain’t that a kick in the nutsView attachment 30148
Well my flight home just got cancelled
Shoot me now
Yup, not ideal at all. The cold is there, but there won't be a winter storm with extreme lowering heights over the east like that. Lucky this is the GFS OP beyond 200 hours so this may not verify at all.Not ideal![]()
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How bout let’s I don’t know be happy the pattern is gonna change from where we are now......Yup, not ideal at all. The cold is there, but there won't be a winter storm with extreme lowering heights over the east like that. Lucky this is the GFS OP beyond 200 hours so this may not verify at all.
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That was last year let’s not reminisce in the past .. looking forward high snow means GENERALLY mean that it’s eyeing some mischief possibility coming our way that’s what we need to focus on .. hoping 12z gefs at least a has a good snow mean although I’m sure it won’t be as high
You have to wait for the EPS before you can do thatWinter uncancel?
They moved the Auburn-Georgia basketball game tomorrow up to 11am CST from 5pm CST, because Auburn Arena is a storm shelter. Good move
So after 3 days of positive model trends, this is the first morning we're starting to see some doubt creep in. PV moving over to the other side of the globe, cold air being delayed, Pacific turning back around, etc. Not that any of those are invalid...they actually are quite valid concerns. Just noting the trends. If it does go to crap, we can look back and say that the first hints of that trend were showing themselves the morning of 1/10.
Hopefully, that won't be the case.
Most are looking for the fly in the ointment. I'm sure It'll most certainly be something pop up.So I must have missed it this morning, 12z and 6z gefs looked good. What were the bad trends. Haven't seen the eps.
Still looks pretty good to me too.So I must have missed it this morning, 12z and 6z gefs looked good. What were the bad trends. Haven't seen the eps.
So I must have missed it this morning, 12z and 6z gefs looked good. What were the bad trends. Haven't seen the eps.
This was one storm and there was a rain snow line we had to deal with which always throws models for a loop .. if say we got solid cold air in place and a storm to ride around that we would have significant confidence in an all snow event and would then have to worry about qpf amounts which is something ensembles and models can be of more use forI doubt that people that have been following this for a while base things on just last year. The post below is from a well respected poster from a few years back who knows his stuff. Here is what can happen with using ensembles even at short range....
"models are useless. ensembles are useless. every. single. ens. member. for the euro and gfs 24 HOURS OUT showed a huge hit for RDU. the morning OF THE STORM the euro showed 12" of all snow for rdu. we track these storms 190+hrs out and even with a 12hr lead time they still are crap. don't believe any snow forecast until you can see the coorelation coefficient line 100+ miles to your south. "
Not saying this is always the case but ensembles are just as bad as the model run they are based on even at short leads, let alone at longer leads.
Still looks pretty good to me too.
I don't think it was much warmer but seeing the SER creep back in before pattern reload and the +PNA pushed back a few frames just gives you queasy feelings in the 'ol gut, ya know?Fans of cold weather are not going to like the 12z EPS? It's much warmer than the 0z?
I don't think it was much warmer but seeing the SER creep back in before pattern reload and the +PNA pushed back a few frames just gives you queasy feelings in the 'ol gut, ya know?
Not yuge difference but we just don't have much wiggle room, I almost went all James Holzhauer for that time frame can't afford to give away any degrees. Lol![]()
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I appreciate your optimism but it seems like you make a lot of declarative statements regarding things that are coming. Most are all just looking for better patterns that can produce something. Fantasy snow maps are for twitter clicks. Couple of things about your response....This was one storm and there was a rain snow line we had to deal with which always throws models for a loop .. if say we got solid cold air in place and a storm to ride around that we would have significant confidence in an all snow event and would then have to worry about qpf amounts which is something ensembles and models can be of more use for
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