• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Misc Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade

Status
Not open for further replies.
weatherfide said:
Good point. But I’m happily married to the best “model” now. Best wife, best mother best friend! I can’t get the snow where I am now, though.
Click to expand...
I hear you! Just providing guidance to the young singles out there. :)

ETA: I'd take the snowstorm too.
 
So after 3 days of positive model trends, this is the first morning we're starting to see some doubt creep in. PV moving over to the other side of the globe, cold air being delayed, Pacific turning back around, etc. Not that any of those are invalid...they actually are quite valid concerns. Just noting the trends. If it does go to crap, we can look back and say that the first hints of that trend were showing themselves the morning of 1/10.

Hopefully, that won't be the case.
 
RAh has a chance of rain in the forecast from Saturday night through Thursday. Going to be a miserable week.
 
Brick Tamland said:
RAh has a chance of rain in the forecast from Saturday night through Thursday. Going to be a miserable week.
Click to expand...
Check out Seattle's forecast if you want to be miserable. Starting Monday: Snow, snow, snow, snow, snow, snow, snow......
 
Rain Cold said:
So after 3 days of positive model trends, this is the first morning we're starting to see some doubt creep in. PV moving over to the other side of the globe, cold air being delayed, Pacific turning back around, etc. Not that any of those are invalid...they actually are quite valid concerns. Just noting the trends. If it does go to crap, we can look back and say that the first hints of that trend were showing themselves the morning of 1/10.

Hopefully, that won't be the case.
Click to expand...
My inner goober is saying “The snow is on the way.”, but if I had to bet my bank account on it I’d say there’s a greasy beard hair in my cheesy chicken tortellini
 
Rain Cold said:
So after 3 days of positive model trends, this is the first morning we're starting to see some doubt creep in. PV moving over to the other side of the globe, cold air being delayed, Pacific turning back around, etc. Not that any of those are invalid...they actually are quite valid concerns. Just noting the trends. If it does go to crap, we can look back and say that the first hints of that trend were showing themselves the morning of 1/10.

Hopefully, that won't be the case.
Click to expand...
Not thrilled with the D10 eps and how its handling the Siberia/Ak/arctic pattern but at least its showing a less enthusiastic version. First hurdle is the trough retrograding around d7 and the pinched off high over AK.

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
My inner goober is saying “The snow is on the way.”, but if I had to bet my bank account on it I’d say there’s a greasy beard hair in my cheesy chicken tortellini
Click to expand...
Hahah, I feel the same way! I want to believe that there is snow on the way, but then again at the same time, I'm like, "hold on horses."

Sent from my SM-A102U using Tapatalk
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
My inner goober is saying “The snow is on the way.”, but if I had to bet my bank account on it I’d say there’s a greasy beard hair in my cheesy chicken tortellini
Click to expand...
It's kind of like eating rice and watching the last one crawl away.
 
Not ideal
5b33fd542873d8c27dd4a18073611992.gif


Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
 
SD said:
Not ideal
5b33fd542873d8c27dd4a18073611992.gif


Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Yup, not ideal at all. The cold is there, but there won't be a winter storm with extreme lowering heights over the east like that. Lucky this is the GFS OP beyond 200 hours so this may not verify at all.

Sent from my SM-A102U using Tapatalk
 
I see something else that's of worry there if it were to play out that way. A cyclone in the pacific deciding to not play nice and push on the ridge that builds, and it leads to negative heights starting to build back in Alaska and you start seeing negative heights build in Greenland too.

I know that's very layperson speak though, but that look if it were to be true would lead to a mere transitory cold snap...IMO.

Edit: well...if we're going to take the GFS at face value, it gets cold again very late after a few days of average it looks like.
 
WxWatch said:
Yup, not ideal at all. The cold is there, but there won't be a winter storm with extreme lowering heights over the east like that. Lucky this is the GFS OP beyond 200 hours so this may not verify at all.

Sent from my SM-A102U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
How bout let’s I don’t know be happy the pattern is gonna change from where we are now......
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
That was last year let’s not reminisce in the past .. looking forward high snow means GENERALLY mean that it’s eyeing some mischief possibility coming our way that’s what we need to focus on .. hoping 12z gefs at least a has a good snow mean although I’m sure it won’t be as high
Click to expand...

I doubt that people that have been following this for a while base things on just last year. The post below is from a well respected poster from a few years back who knows his stuff. Here is what can happen with using ensembles even at short range....

"models are useless. ensembles are useless. every. single. ens. member. for the euro and gfs 24 HOURS OUT showed a huge hit for RDU. the morning OF THE STORM the euro showed 12" of all snow for rdu. we track these storms 190+hrs out and even with a 12hr lead time they still are crap. don't believe any snow forecast until you can see the coorelation coefficient line 100+ miles to your south. "

Not saying this is always the case but ensembles are just as bad as the model run they are based on even at short leads, let alone at longer leads.
 
Rain Cold said:
So after 3 days of positive model trends, this is the first morning we're starting to see some doubt creep in. PV moving over to the other side of the globe, cold air being delayed, Pacific turning back around, etc. Not that any of those are invalid...they actually are quite valid concerns. Just noting the trends. If it does go to crap, we can look back and say that the first hints of that trend were showing themselves the morning of 1/10.

Hopefully, that won't be the case.
Click to expand...

So I must have missed it this morning, 12z and 6z gefs looked good. What were the bad trends. Haven't seen the eps.
 
SnowNiner said:
So I must have missed it this morning, 12z and 6z gefs looked good. What were the bad trends. Haven't seen the eps.
Click to expand...

I think a lot of us are just being cautious and weary of the cold after all the constant teasing last year. Or maybe not and i'm just projecting.
 
Thor said:
I doubt that people that have been following this for a while base things on just last year. The post below is from a well respected poster from a few years back who knows his stuff. Here is what can happen with using ensembles even at short range....

"models are useless. ensembles are useless. every. single. ens. member. for the euro and gfs 24 HOURS OUT showed a huge hit for RDU. the morning OF THE STORM the euro showed 12" of all snow for rdu. we track these storms 190+hrs out and even with a 12hr lead time they still are crap. don't believe any snow forecast until you can see the coorelation coefficient line 100+ miles to your south. "

Not saying this is always the case but ensembles are just as bad as the model run they are based on even at short leads, let alone at longer leads.
Click to expand...
This was one storm and there was a rain snow line we had to deal with which always throws models for a loop .. if say we got solid cold air in place and a storm to ride around that we would have significant confidence in an all snow event and would then have to worry about qpf amounts which is something ensembles and models can be of more use for
 
packfan98 said:
Fans of cold weather are not going to like the 12z EPS? It's much warmer than the 0z?
Click to expand...
I don't think it was much warmer but seeing the SER creep back in before pattern reload and the +PNA pushed back a few frames just gives you queasy feelings in the 'ol gut, ya know?
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
This was one storm and there was a rain snow line we had to deal with which always throws models for a loop .. if say we got solid cold air in place and a storm to ride around that we would have significant confidence in an all snow event and would then have to worry about qpf amounts which is something ensembles and models can be of more use for
Click to expand...
I appreciate your optimism but it seems like you make a lot of declarative statements regarding things that are coming. Most are all just looking for better patterns that can produce something. Fantasy snow maps are for twitter clicks. Couple of things about your response....
1. Every Storm has a rain Snow Line in the SE
2. We very rarely have SOLID cold air in place when the storm actually arrives, generally, when there is anomalous cold we wouldn't have the precip to go with it. So we have to be content living on the temperature edge.
3. I wish for the day when i need to worry about qpf amounts, that only times that comes up is with late blooming coastals mainly(atleast for MBY)

The point i was trying to make was even when literally every model shows something within 24 hours there is still the absolute possibility we whiff, so why concentrate on the details that are 200 hours away and extremely unlikely to play out in that fashion. The person who posted that response is somebody with degrees in this field and is very knowledgeable, obviously they were upset because they wanted snow like the rest of us, but this isn't just "one storm" or "one year" this is how it is in the SE. The snowfall output is nice to see but pretty meaningless.
 
whatalife said:
aedf5b2eb41fdbd0e1a13b8591edafa1.png
40c65a98761a266f84d3e9e2b3fdfe73.png




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Dr no, wants to live up to its name, but right now it's teasing us with...Dr. kinda sorta...maybe it's because euro wants to kill the mjo wave in low amp 7..

So here we are again with rooting for the gefs again, lol. Hard model watching this weekend. We've got to get this within 10 days for me to sense any confidence. Cold arrival, not the ridge.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top