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Misc Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade

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NoSnowATL said:
Still don’t see a good set up for a Deep South system with this 1st push. Maybe something on the back end or the next round.


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It's almost always a step down process. But as I posted the other day, if the big time Pacific blocking verifies the deep south is in the game. I even mentioned Savannah possibly being in the game if the Pacific blocking set up right into Alaska and this evening that showed up on the GFS and sure enough so did snow in the extreme southeast.
 
Swear if we do get that crazy cold and get another anomalous storm like the one in 2018 I believe, I'm going to try to drive down just far enough safely to see some good snow. Honestly, hopefully if a very suppressed situation happens again, I don't have to do that and I can stay at home and see a couple inches.
 
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Waking up to this is like waking up and seeing a supermodel naked next to you!


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I fear that we lose this good pattern on the models to something dumb like the pv interferes with the developing ridge or we get the ridge and it gets undercut or rex blocks into a -pna. The biggest nut punch would be holding on to this look this as we get inside of D5 the ridge loses amplitude so we get a SE ridge

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SD said:
I fear that we lose this good pattern on the models to something dumb like the pv interferes with the developing ridge or we get the ridge and it gets undercut or rex blocks into a -pna. The biggest nut punch would be holding on to this look this as we get inside of D5 the ridge loses amplitude so we get a SE ridge

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It wouldn’t shock me, I won’t get too excited until it’s under 5 days. Too much still needs to happen and it only take one thing to mess it up for the SE.


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About that run last night of the GFS showing that "snow storm." I had to refrain myself from getting excited because it's too far out, (beyond 200 hours) it's the first run it has shown a significant winter storm and it's the GFS OP. If that winter storm was in the 3 day window, 5 day or 7 day window and if it had solid consistency, I would take it more serious. You can't help but not to make jokes about it.

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WxWatch said:
About that run last night of the GFS showing that "snow storm." I had to refrain myself from getting excited because it's too far out, (beyond 200 hours) it's the first run it has shown a significant winter storm and it's the GFS OP. If that winter storm was in the 3 day window, 5 day or 7 day window and if it had solid consistency, I would take it more serious. You can't help but not to make jokes about it.

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It's no more or less legitimate than it showing upper 70s at that time frame. Given the ensemble support and some level of support from other model suites it's worth looking at. It's not like the old gfs having 20 inches of snow while every other modeling on earth minus the dgex is warm

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