Ughhh, I'm not really liking this! This is from the EPS.![]()
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Ice storm.Ughhh, I'm not really liking this! This is from the EPS.![]()
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Ice storm.
I'm not feeling very excited yet either. If it gets cold and no winter storm, it would be a waste of cold air and it's January - so terrible. If we can't score in the month that it's suppose to be the "coldest" month, it makes me question February as well. Will we also get screwed over in February? Maybe we'll get lucky and score with one of those rare cold core ULLs that will bring a dumping of snow like it did in March of 2009.I'm not feeling very excited about the upcoming pattern change yet. +PNA, -EPO, favorable MJO, blah, blah, blah. Unless a -NAO decides to show up, CUTTERS ARE GOING TO CUT. We will have Warm, Rain, Cold, Warm, Rain, Cold.
Sometimes we just can't see the forest (cold) for the trees (SER) but it's thereYep, deceiving H5 look, that look supports cold with the power of the 50/50 low, lol, and there’s a +PNA anyways so it’s not that deceiving
Of course![]()
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At my age, after fathering 4 kids ..... I'll take the 2 ft snowstorm.The real question is would you take that over a 1-2ft snowstorm?
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That’s not that bad of a look, certainly 100% better than the dumpster fire pattern we’ve been in all winter.Ughhh, I'm not really liking this! This is from the EPS.![]()
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Who goes to Raleigh for vacation?FYI, there is an excellent chance of a giant snowstorm the end of the month because that's the time I'll be vacationing in Raleigh. Never fails.
Who goes to Raleigh for vacation?
Visiting family?
Yeah, it's not that bad, I just don't like the ridging over the area. It's not the best pattern for snow storms. It's a pattern that would favor ice. Most of the time, with ice, it occurs at the onset as WAA would eventually take over, unless there would be a solid surface high that gets locked into place over the Northeast. I'd much prefer no ridging over the area.That’s not that bad of a look, certainly 100% better than the dumpster fire pattern we’ve been in all winter.
Gotcha! Raleigh is a nice place to live, just not really much of a vacation spot. But if you're visiting family, I get it.Yeah, Dad, Sister, Niece and Nephew are out there. I go twice a year usually.
And really any time I'm not at work is a vacation, regardless of where I am![]()
Uh what.
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Such weird members
Just paint snow all over the place. That should make forecasting easy.
Just paint snow all over the place. That should make forecasting easy.
Member 1 or 14 will be what verifies for the SE?Uh what.
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Such weird members
"us" is "you" and I truly hope you do ...Just looking over the different ensembles and the 20th-26th really holds a lot of potential for us to score imo.
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What will this place be like when we get the inevitable vomit run of the GEFS and spits out apocalyptic warmth. Should be fun.
Lol! Saw this on Twitter.
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@Nick_boynton_
So the Euro Control vs. the Euro is a good question. The Euro control, like was said in the other thread, uses the same initial conditions as the regular Euro, but runs at a lower resolution and runs out to 360 hours, whereas the regular Euro only goes out to 240. The Control is run after the Euro and is used as the baseline for the rest of the 50 Ensembles. Each ENS member runs based off of the Control run but with the initial conditions slightly altered. Then you take a blend of the control plus all 50 members (for a total of 51 ENS members) to get the mean.
It's like this:
Euro Control:
View attachment 30187
Euro Regular:
View attachment 30188
Ensemble members at 84:
View attachment 30193
Ensemble members at 120:
View attachment 30189
Ensemble members at 240:
View attachment 30190
Ensemble members at 360:
View attachment 30191
Ensemble mean:
View attachment 30192
Hope this helps!
Lol what an idiot. Just because it's made in America doesn't make it the best out there, and when it comes to weather models we all know the answer is not to use the GFS blindly.Lol! Saw this on Twitter.
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Don't encourage him.... LolI nominate this for post of the season on all weather forums,lol
Haha way to many cogs, man. More likeSeems I found some crude imagery of @Rain Cold head.... see he's not human, explains a lot![]()
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