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Misc Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade

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I'm not feeling very excited about the upcoming pattern change yet. +PNA, -EPO, favorable MJO, blah, blah, blah. Unless a -NAO decides to show up, CUTTERS ARE GOING TO CUT. We will have Warm, Rain, Cold, Warm, Rain, Cold.
 
I know we get snow occasionally in March but February is our hope. And all our eggs are in the February basket.


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Ughhh, I'm not really liking this! This is from the EPS.
7ce05ece890df9e6ae2862000d790cdb.jpg


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WxWatch said:
Ughhh, I'm not really liking this! This is from the EPS.
7ce05ece890df9e6ae2862000d790cdb.jpg


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Click to expand...

Yeah that's pretty bad. But it's the few days after that it gets much better. This run certainly seems to push the cold back a bit. Hopefully the overnight run corrects.
 
mrdaddyman said:
I'm not feeling very excited about the upcoming pattern change yet. +PNA, -EPO, favorable MJO, blah, blah, blah. Unless a -NAO decides to show up, CUTTERS ARE GOING TO CUT. We will have Warm, Rain, Cold, Warm, Rain, Cold.
Click to expand...
I'm not feeling very excited yet either. If it gets cold and no winter storm, it would be a waste of cold air and it's January - so terrible. If we can't score in the month that it's suppose to be the "coldest" month, it makes me question February as well. Will we also get screwed over in February? Maybe we'll get lucky and score with one of those rare cold core ULLs that will bring a dumping of snow like it did in March of 2009.

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Myfrotho704_ said:
Yep, deceiving H5 look, that look supports cold with the power of the 50/50 low, lol, and there’s a +PNA anyways so it’s not that deceiving
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Sometimes we just can't see the forest (cold) for the trees (SER) but it's there
 
FYI, there is an excellent chance of a giant snowstorm the end of the month because that's the time I'll be vacationing in Raleigh. Never fails.
 
superjames1992 said:
That’s not that bad of a look, certainly 100% better than the dumpster fire pattern we’ve been in all winter.
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Yeah, it's not that bad, I just don't like the ridging over the area. It's not the best pattern for snow storms. It's a pattern that would favor ice. Most of the time, with ice, it occurs at the onset as WAA would eventually take over, unless there would be a solid surface high that gets locked into place over the Northeast. I'd much prefer no ridging over the area.

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CamWX said:
Yeah, Dad, Sister, Niece and Nephew are out there. I go twice a year usually.

And really any time I'm not at work is a vacation, regardless of where I am ;)
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Gotcha! Raleigh is a nice place to live, just not really much of a vacation spot. But if you're visiting family, I get it. :)
 
So, hopefully a good chance a good chunk of this forum area will have a shot at a winter storm the week after next
 
@Nick_boynton_

So the Euro Control vs. the Euro is a good question. The Euro control, like was said in the other thread, uses the same initial conditions as the regular Euro, but runs at a lower resolution and runs out to 360 hours, whereas the regular Euro only goes out to 240. The Control is run after the Euro and is used as the baseline for the rest of the 50 Ensembles. Each ENS member runs based off of the Control run but with the initial conditions slightly altered. Then you take a blend of the control plus all 50 members (for a total of 51 ENS members) to get the mean.

It's like this:

Euro Control:

patterson-gimlin-300x300.jpg

Euro Regular:

b380b7d957beb3c17350fd170fdfe5bb.jpg

Ensemble members at 84:

ghost.jpg

Ensemble members at 120:

images.jpg

Ensemble members at 240:

loch-ness-monster-ap-ps-180523_hpMain_16x9_992.jpg

Ensemble members at 360:

858cd297be4f2babd7e1660df5558055.jpg

Ensemble mean:

renderart_b8c574fd-76e9-44d7-862d-111826120381.png

Hope this helps!
 
Rain Cold said:
@Nick_boynton_

So the Euro Control vs. the Euro is a good question. The Euro control, like was said in the other thread, uses the same initial conditions as the regular Euro, but runs at a lower resolution and runs out to 360 hours, whereas the regular Euro only goes out to 240. The Control is run after the Euro and is used as the baseline for the rest of the 50 Ensembles. Each ENS member runs based off of the Control run but with the initial conditions slightly altered. Then you take a blend of the control plus all 50 members (for a total of 51 ENS members) to get the mean.

It's like this:

Euro Control:

View attachment 30187

Euro Regular:

View attachment 30188

Ensemble members at 84:

View attachment 30193

Ensemble members at 120:

View attachment 30189

Ensemble members at 240:

View attachment 30190

Ensemble members at 360:

View attachment 30191

Ensemble mean:

View attachment 30192

Hope this helps!
Click to expand...

giphy.gif




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