Huh? it sure looks like snow in Nashville to me from wed-Sunday. Last 2 Gfs runs.
backyard syndrome. we need to bring more awareness to the ailment.
Huh? it sure looks like snow in Nashville to me from wed-Sunday. Last 2 Gfs runs.
Backyard syndrome says the Carolinas have this clipper right where they want it ??backyard syndrome. we need to bring more awareness to the ailment.
NehHuh? it sure looks like snow in Nashville to me from wed-Sunday. Last 2 Gfs runs.
YayBackyard syndrome says the Carolinas have this clipper right where they want it ??![]()
It's pretty insidious. I am pretty confident that it didn't just come out of a bat. My guess is it is the result of something worked on in a biolab.
Anyway, there are a couple of really important things to keep in mind, one of which you said. You can have it, carry it, and spread it (in some cases dramatically so) for anywhere from 3 - 27 days, all while not knowing you have it. The other thing is that it is extremely contagious....much, much more contagious than the flu. These two things virtually ensure that it will spread around the world.
Other items of note are the fact that the Case Fatality Rate appears to be between 2-3% (compared with 0.1% for the normal flu). This may drop as more reliable data comes out. Also, the serious complication rate is somewhere between 15-20%. That means medical intervention (hospital stay, ICU bed, respirator, etc.). And as you pointed out, most of the deaths occur with older people and people who have preexisting health issues. One other important note: We have no previous exposure (as a human race) to this virus. There is no herd immunity. There are no natural firewalls to it.
Mutation is also possible. Many viruses mutate. That is pretty common, actually. It can become more or less infectious and more or less virulent (deadly) or any combination of those things. So far, they say that it hasn't mutated. But the more people it infects, the higher the probability of mutation.
So back to the case fatality rate (CFR). This is going to be directly related to the above parameters PLUS the availability of quality care. It's easy to broad brush certain countries as having a subpar healthcare system, like Cambodia, or having a great healthcare system, like the US. In that case, you would expect the CFR to be higher in Cambodia than in the US. That is a fair conclusion. But the wildcard is the word "availability". A significant and rapid increase in cases will overload any system. There aren't enough ICU beds in the US, or anywhere else for that matter, to accommodate 15% of a rapidly growing case load. That fact is critical to understand.
The last thing to keep in mind is the fact that there are many places where this thing exists that do not have the capability to test for it or haven't begun broad testing for it yet. Most cases are mild. So think how easy it is for a person walking around with what they feel is just a cold to spread this to someone else who spreads it to someone else who then gets really sick and goes into a medical center who has the ability to and decides to test for it. Right now, it's not common practice to test for it where there is no outbreak.
The bottom line is that it is in a lot of places going undetected right now. It is likely here in the US in that fashion. The CDC is implementing testing in certain states for anyone who has flu-like symptoms, but that isn't in place yet, I don't think.
Is it time to panic? No. But will this will get here, if it's not here already. You can, if you choose to watch and listen, hear the messaging slowly changing from leadership and authorities. When it's time to get really concerned, it will be too late to do the things you want to do. It's good to start to get your mind around what you need if you feel compelled (or are compelled) to stay in the house for a month or two. There's no need to run for the hills, but having basic medical supplies and foods that can sustain you for a period of time makes practical sense. So does having masks, gloves, disinfectants, etc.
Hopefully, we don't end up with a severe problem. But this virus is the real deal. Look at the global response. Learn the facts about the disease, which, while not the most deadly virus in history, is certainly a type of virus that we have not had to deal with in a very, very long time.
Yeah I read that. The story that this came out of a bat and through a snake is falling apart fast.Take a gander.
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Opinion | Don’t buy China’s story: The coronavirus may have leaked from a lab
At an emergency meeting in Beijing held last Friday, Chinese leader Xi Jinping spoke about the need to contain the coronavirus and set up a system to prevent similar epidemics in the future. A nati…nypost.com
Accu says March 21st will be are 1st 80 day.
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We've already had a couple 80s lol
Onset ZR aka “BoBerry Special” for Northern WilkesWhat did the NAM show tonight
Winter has ended. Mtns only. Dry clipper poss at times but nothing widespread sig East of Wilkesboro. The last event was the highlight hope you enjoed the ride please come again. All clear.
I had bacterial meningitis in college. 21% mortality rate. Makes the Kung Flu look like the common cold
Is there no potential for snow this Saturday in N Georgia? Just surprised to see it so quiet
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Good point! And I'm sure the virus it's MUCH worse than what is being told. I will NEVER trust the what the Government tells us!!! lolBrings joy to me, anyway to slow down a virus Is find by me even if it’s warmth View attachment 36346
We have one alreadyShould we start a virus thread?
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We have one already
Coronavirus (Stay on Topic)
This needs its own thread imo as it's now cluttering up the politics thread. Although not specifically referring to any one outbreak, this article explains well why the flu is so much worse in winter than in any other season and that may be enough reason for even me to root on a warm March...southernwx.com
See you when hurricane season gets going. I sure hope we can shake this pattern next winter. So ugly...
View attachment 36349View attachment 36348
Best bet from all that I’ve read from mets is for the W Pacific tropical waters to cool considerably relative to surrounding waters, not an easy task. These warm waters are causing forcing equivalent to MJO phases 4-5 to overwhelm the winter patterns each winter and thus the SER to dominate. If you count the days, you will count more phase 4-5 days per winter averaged out the last 10 years vs, say, the 1980s. And then even when the MJO isn’t officially in 4-5, the extra warmth in the W Pacific is still causing forcing akin to 4-5.
JB is once again taking the bait of inaccurate seasonal models and hinting at the warmest water moving well east of there. He’s such a fool and so incredibly cold biased. And he ignores that models have been terribly cold biased. His hinting at a cold subsequent winter is a tradition in spring, but he’s already doing so before the current winter is over! His credibility is shot and now he’s desperate to get it back by taking the attention off the current disasterous winter from his perspective.
I also fear it could be a long time before this ugly cycle ends. I'm already sick of itI agree...definitely concerned we are entering a multi-year cycle that will be tough to shake. And, we really are in year 3 of this cycle.
Wait, did I just cancel winter(s) until 2030...?
I'll be in Clayton for work Wednesday- Saturday, but I'll have some free time in between. I haven't seen snow yet this winter so maybe this might be my chance. I've seen pic of Clayton very beautiful place and beautiful mountains. Snow chances are looking good while I'm there.