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Misc Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade

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Well.. the home weather model on the raspberry works lol....

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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
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Rain Cold said:
It's pretty insidious. I am pretty confident that it didn't just come out of a bat. My guess is it is the result of something worked on in a biolab.

Anyway, there are a couple of really important things to keep in mind, one of which you said. You can have it, carry it, and spread it (in some cases dramatically so) for anywhere from 3 - 27 days, all while not knowing you have it. The other thing is that it is extremely contagious....much, much more contagious than the flu. These two things virtually ensure that it will spread around the world.

Other items of note are the fact that the Case Fatality Rate appears to be between 2-3% (compared with 0.1% for the normal flu). This may drop as more reliable data comes out. Also, the serious complication rate is somewhere between 15-20%. That means medical intervention (hospital stay, ICU bed, respirator, etc.). And as you pointed out, most of the deaths occur with older people and people who have preexisting health issues. One other important note: We have no previous exposure (as a human race) to this virus. There is no herd immunity. There are no natural firewalls to it.

Mutation is also possible. Many viruses mutate. That is pretty common, actually. It can become more or less infectious and more or less virulent (deadly) or any combination of those things. So far, they say that it hasn't mutated. But the more people it infects, the higher the probability of mutation.

So back to the case fatality rate (CFR). This is going to be directly related to the above parameters PLUS the availability of quality care. It's easy to broad brush certain countries as having a subpar healthcare system, like Cambodia, or having a great healthcare system, like the US. In that case, you would expect the CFR to be higher in Cambodia than in the US. That is a fair conclusion. But the wildcard is the word "availability". A significant and rapid increase in cases will overload any system. There aren't enough ICU beds in the US, or anywhere else for that matter, to accommodate 15% of a rapidly growing case load. That fact is critical to understand.

The last thing to keep in mind is the fact that there are many places where this thing exists that do not have the capability to test for it or haven't begun broad testing for it yet. Most cases are mild. So think how easy it is for a person walking around with what they feel is just a cold to spread this to someone else who spreads it to someone else who then gets really sick and goes into a medical center who has the ability to and decides to test for it. Right now, it's not common practice to test for it where there is no outbreak.

The bottom line is that it is in a lot of places going undetected right now. It is likely here in the US in that fashion. The CDC is implementing testing in certain states for anyone who has flu-like symptoms, but that isn't in place yet, I don't think.

Is it time to panic? No. But will this will get here, if it's not here already. You can, if you choose to watch and listen, hear the messaging slowly changing from leadership and authorities. When it's time to get really concerned, it will be too late to do the things you want to do. It's good to start to get your mind around what you need if you feel compelled (or are compelled) to stay in the house for a month or two. There's no need to run for the hills, but having basic medical supplies and foods that can sustain you for a period of time makes practical sense. So does having masks, gloves, disinfectants, etc.

Hopefully, we don't end up with a severe problem. But this virus is the real deal. Look at the global response. Learn the facts about the disease, which, while not the most deadly virus in history, is certainly a type of virus that we have not had to deal with in a very, very long time.
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Take a gander.


nypost.com

Opinion | Don’t buy China’s story: The coronavirus may have leaked from a lab

At an emergency meeting in Beijing held last Friday, Chinese leader Xi Jinping spoke about the need to contain the coronavirus and set up a system to prevent similar epidemics in the future. A nati…
nypost.com nypost.com
 
Winter has ended. Mtns only. Dry clipper poss at times but nothing widespread sig East of Wilkesboro. The last event was the highlight hope you enjoed the ride please come again. All clear.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Winter has ended. Mtns only. Dry clipper poss at times but nothing widespread sig East of Wilkesboro. The last event was the highlight hope you enjoed the ride please come again. All clear.
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I'm with you birdman. I think it's pretty much over, especially outside of NC!
 
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Mountain (and actually, parts of mid-north Tennessee too) snow looking good, just looking at the map of SW NC on google or even NWS has me wanting to scratch that itch and go back even though it won't be during a time there's snow, as its been close to 3 years...let on this to my parents and after some chatter...that somehow might lead to us going to Clemson, SC with a nature reason to lol (and we're not Clemson fans).
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I had bacterial meningitis in college. 21% mortality rate. Makes the Kung Flu look like the common cold
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Brought this here as it's not really on topic, but dang. That had to suck. I've never had it (I at least am under the assumption I have all the meningitis shots now, but I'm actually not totally sure) but I've read stories about these disease and I know how it can wreck people. I was kind of startled a few years back when I went to a doctor for the first time in ages and found out about this strain for meningitis that they had started vaccinating for shortly after we stopped wondering about vaccines (Meningitis B I believe so its one of the rarer ones but even then, and yes, I got the vaccines for it when I found out).

The sickest I feel like I've ever been isn't really even a deal that normally can really get you (and I know there's much worse that happens). I may have told this before, but whatever, I will again. Back when I was 12, I got strep throat for the first time. Only my dad initially blew it off as a cold. So, I took Zicam first, which I kinda think actually worked for my colds when I was a youngster, but that's not important to this story. I had a mild sore throat, but that was pretty much it. This goes on for a few days, other than the mild sore throat, I was okay. There may have been a day or two where it even went away, as this story gets further and further away from present day, there are some minor details that I forget. But then, there was a day where I was eating lunch in the middle school lunchroom, I want to say it was a "fake rib sandwich", and that funny feeling in my throat was back.

It was not long after that in which I woke up at some point in the middle of the night crying hysterically because my throat was swollen so badly. My dad had to come comfort me, and he kept me home from school the next day. The day after (so I spent about two days with major swelling my throat) we went to the pediatrician and I obviously had strep throat and not a cold (oddly no fever but my throat was in awful shape and I don't think I really ate at all for a couple days which is why I say that was probably the sickest I've been). Received antibiotics, after two rounds and a night of sleeping, I was back to normal.

I think my dad felt awful after that incident, but he doesn't like doctors. Never really has but he's not to the point of insane, like people that don't vaccinate their children (in fact I think he's said that it's a crime to not vaccinate your children). It ironically stems from grandpa (his dad), who was an MD, talking about how you should avoid doctors as long as you can and don't put your full trust in them.
 
this really isn't a whamby post..but here in vegas this week. Today was 70 degrees with dewpoint in the 20s. It was a great day.. it made me be okay with spring once it comes to South Carolina.. and when the Carolinas are warming up this week this area is going down into the 30s the next couple of nights shows the swings and opposite weather from one side to another.
 
Is there no potential for snow this Saturday in N Georgia? Just surprised to see it so quiet


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NoSnowATL said:
Should we start a virus thread?


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We have one already

Coronavirus (Stay on Topic)

This needs its own thread imo as it's now cluttering up the politics thread. Although not specifically referring to any one outbreak, this article explains well why the flu is so much worse in winter than in any other season and that may be enough reason for even me to root on a warm March...
southernwx.com
 
ForsythSnow said:
We have one already

Coronavirus (Stay on Topic)

This needs its own thread imo as it's now cluttering up the politics thread. Although not specifically referring to any one outbreak, this article explains well why the flu is so much worse in winter than in any other season and that may be enough reason for even me to root on a warm March...
southernwx.com
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Good deal. Thanks


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KyloG said:
See you when hurricane season gets going. I sure hope we can shake this pattern next winter. So ugly...

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Best bet from all that I’ve read from mets is for the W Pacific tropical waters to cool considerably relative to surrounding waters, not an easy task. These warm waters are causing forcing equivalent to MJO phases 4-5 to overwhelm the winter patterns each winter and thus the SER to dominate. If you count the days, you will count more phase 4-5 days per winter averaged out the last 10 years vs, say, the 1980s. And then even when the MJO isn’t officially in 4-5, the extra warmth in the W Pacific is still causing forcing akin to 4-5.

JB is once again taking the bait of inaccurate seasonal models and hinting at the warmest water moving well east of there. He’s such a fool and so incredibly cold biased. And he ignores that models have been terribly cold biased. His hinting at a cold subsequent winter is a tradition in spring, but he’s already doing so before the current winter is over! His credibility is shot and now he’s desperate to get it back by taking the attention off the current disasterous winter from his perspective.
 
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GaWx said:
Best bet from all that I’ve read from mets is for the W Pacific tropical waters to cool considerably relative to surrounding waters, not an easy task. These warm waters are causing forcing equivalent to MJO phases 4-5 to overwhelm the winter patterns each winter and thus the SER to dominate. If you count the days, you will count more phase 4-5 days per winter averaged out the last 10 years vs, say, the 1980s. And then even when the MJO isn’t officially in 4-5, the extra warmth in the W Pacific is still causing forcing akin to 4-5.

JB is once again taking the bait of inaccurate seasonal models and hinting at the warmest water moving well east of there. He’s such a fool and so incredibly cold biased. And he ignores that models have been terribly cold biased. His hinting at a cold subsequent winter is a tradition in spring, but he’s already doing so before the current winter is over! His credibility is shot and now he’s desperate to get it back by taking the attention off the current disasterous winter from his perspective.
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I agree...definitely concerned we are entering a multi-year cycle that will be tough to shake. And, we really are in year 3 of this cycle.

Wait, did I just cancel winter(s) until 2030...?
 
accu35 said:
I'll be in Clayton for work Wednesday- Saturday, but I'll have some free time in between. I haven't seen snow yet this winter so maybe this might be my chance. I've seen pic of Clayton very beautiful place and beautiful mountains. Snow chances are looking good while I'm there.
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I think Clayton the town itself is kind of boring but maybe I have "I've been in that area" a fair amount stuff to blame. If I think of Clayton, the first things that comes to my mind is going into that town with both sides on the main road loaded with shops, plus that Days Inn I stayed at when I was turning 10 where the highway beside it was pretty loud. It's not far from interesting areas though and if I think of NE GA, my first thought to mind is Hiawassee and seeing those beautiful mountains across the lake.

Anyway, do think some flakes fly early in the morning on Wednesday there and there's a shot they fall again on the Friday/Saturday maybe, but I would say if you think you can scope out enough free time, cross your fingers that the clipper on Friday/Saturday doesn't make a significant trend, keep a close eye on what the models do for the rest of this week, and look at making a short drive into SW NC if there's enough time.
 
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