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Misc Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade

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Looking at coronavirus now... it’s probably gonna spread, there loosing track records in other countries, this is really a challenge we could face in the future, no need to panic but just be prepared, virus Seems more lethal than H1N1 and even H3N2 (the nasty strain of seasonal flu we had a few years back), the fact that you could spread it while being asymptomatic is very concerning, there’s still time to contain it, but the window is narrowing real quick
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Looking at coronavirus now... it’s probably gonna spread, there loosing track records in other countries, this is really a challenge we could face in the future, no need to panic but just be prepared, virus Seems more lethal than H1N1 and even H3N2 (the nasty strain of seasonal flu we had a few years back), the fact that you could spread it while being asymptomatic is very concerning, there’s still time to contain it, but the window is narrowing real quick
Click to expand...

The good news is that we are not a 3rd world country and we have better access to doctors and meds...
 
No comment needed.
3b43377a75e4d267b45fa04ec5c6d298.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Looking at coronavirus now... it’s probably gonna spread, there loosing track records in other countries, this is really a challenge we could face in the future, no need to panic but just be prepared, virus Seems more lethal than H1N1 and even H3N2 (the nasty strain of seasonal flu we had a few years back), the fact that you could spread it while being asymptomatic is very concerning, there’s still time to contain it, but the window is narrowing real quick
Click to expand...
I was just thinking about this subject..Has anybody heard any reports of any high officials or people of importance with this or has anybody seen any interviews rather it be tv/audio of anyone actually sick? It would be interesting to see someone and let them tell their symptoms etc...Since it's such a mysterious thing and all...
 
Wildboutsnow said:
I was just thinking about this subject..Has anybody heard any reports of any high officials or people of importance with this or has anybody seen any interviews rather it be tv/audio of anyone actually sick? It would be interesting to see someone and let them tell their symptoms etc...Since it's such a mysterious thing and all...
Click to expand...
I ordered a couple N95 respirators just in case. $25 a pop. Wall Street seems concerned so that’s enough for me to take the proper precautions. At worst, I’m out $50 ??‍♂️
 
Wildboutsnow said:
I was just thinking about this subject..Has anybody heard any reports of any high officials or people of importance with this or has anybody seen any interviews rather it be tv/audio of anyone actually sick? It would be interesting to see someone and let them tell their symptoms etc...Since it's such a mysterious thing and all...
Click to expand...

I found this site to have the most comprehensive information.....

www.pharmaceutical-technology.com

Coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak: Latest news, information and updates

34
www.pharmaceutical-technology.com www.pharmaceutical-technology.com
 
The moment that we start hearing about Coronavirus cases in the southeast is when the lightbulb will be turned on for me.

I'm blessed with a good immune system but if I know something is going too far for me, I would go to an urgent care or the hospital. Heaven knows, when I was having ear issues (mostly me blocking my ear with earwax because of an odd habit that I've mostly broken), I went too much to the urgent care.

Do hope they can get a vaccine.
 
what I don’t like about n-COV is it’s ability to spread with no symptoms, somebody in the USA could be walking around with it not knowing they have it, US has so far done good at keeping the spread under control. Hopefully it stays that way.
Also another disturbing stat is it’s effect on the elderly
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
what I don’t like about n-COV is it’s ability to spread with no symptoms, somebody in the USA could be walking around with it not knowing they have it, US has so far done good at keeping the spread under control. Hopefully it stays that way.
Also another disturbing stat is it’s effect on the elderly
Click to expand...
It's pretty insidious. I am pretty confident that it didn't just come out of a bat. My guess is it is the result of something worked on in a biolab.

Anyway, there are a couple of really important things to keep in mind, one of which you said. You can have it, carry it, and spread it (in some cases dramatically so) for anywhere from 3 - 27 days, all while not knowing you have it. The other thing is that it is extremely contagious....much, much more contagious than the flu. These two things virtually ensure that it will spread around the world.

Other items of note are the fact that the Case Fatality Rate appears to be between 2-3% (compared with 0.1% for the normal flu). This may drop as more reliable data comes out. Also, the serious complication rate is somewhere between 15-20%. That means medical intervention (hospital stay, ICU bed, respirator, etc.). And as you pointed out, most of the deaths occur with older people and people who have preexisting health issues. One other important note: We have no previous exposure (as a human race) to this virus. There is no herd immunity. There are no natural firewalls to it.

Mutation is also possible. Many viruses mutate. That is pretty common, actually. It can become more or less infectious and more or less virulent (deadly) or any combination of those things. So far, they say that it hasn't mutated. But the more people it infects, the higher the probability of mutation.

So back to the case fatality rate (CFR). This is going to be directly related to the above parameters PLUS the availability of quality care. It's easy to broad brush certain countries as having a subpar healthcare system, like Cambodia, or having a great healthcare system, like the US. In that case, you would expect the CFR to be higher in Cambodia than in the US. That is a fair conclusion. But the wildcard is the word "availability". A significant and rapid increase in cases will overload any system. There aren't enough ICU beds in the US, or anywhere else for that matter, to accommodate 15% of a rapidly growing case load. That fact is critical to understand.

The last thing to keep in mind is the fact that there are many places where this thing exists that do not have the capability to test for it or haven't begun broad testing for it yet. Most cases are mild. So think how easy it is for a person walking around with what they feel is just a cold to spread this to someone else who spreads it to someone else who then gets really sick and goes into a medical center who has the ability to and decides to test for it. Right now, it's not common practice to test for it where there is no outbreak.

The bottom line is that it is in a lot of places going undetected right now. It is likely here in the US in that fashion. The CDC is implementing testing in certain states for anyone who has flu-like symptoms, but that isn't in place yet, I don't think.

Is it time to panic? No. But will this will get here, if it's not here already. You can, if you choose to watch and listen, hear the messaging slowly changing from leadership and authorities. When it's time to get really concerned, it will be too late to do the things you want to do. It's good to start to get your mind around what you need if you feel compelled (or are compelled) to stay in the house for a month or two. There's no need to run for the hills, but having basic medical supplies and foods that can sustain you for a period of time makes practical sense. So does having masks, gloves, disinfectants, etc.

Hopefully, we don't end up with a severe problem. But this virus is the real deal. Look at the global response. Learn the facts about the disease, which, while not the most deadly virus in history, is certainly a type of virus that we have not had to deal with in a very, very long time.
 
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Mental illness and people starving to death is the real deal too but can’t really make much off that in the news these days.
 
Rain Cold said:
It's pretty insidious. I am pretty confident that it didn't just come out of a bat. My guess is it is the result of something worked on in a biolab.

Anyway, there are a couple of really important things to keep in mind, one of which you said. You can have it, carry it, and spread it (in some cases dramatically so) for anywhere from 3 - 27 days, all while not knowing you have it. The other thing is that it is extremely contagious....much, much more contagious than the flu. These two things virtually ensure that it will spread around the world.

Other items of note are the fact that the Case Fatality Rate appears to be between 2-3% (compared with 0.1% for the normal flu). This may drop as more reliable data comes out. Also, the serious complication rate is somewhere between 15-20%. That means medical intervention (hospital stay, ICU bed, respirator, etc.). And as you pointed out, most of the deaths occur with older people and people who have preexisting health issues. One other important note: We have no previous exposure (as a human race) to this virus. There is no herd immunity. There are no natural firewalls to it.

Mutation is also possible. Many viruses mutate. That is pretty common, actually. It can become more or less infectious and more or less virulent (deadly) or any combination of those things. So far, they say that it hasn't mutated. But the more people it infects, the higher the probability of mutation.

So back to the case fatality rate (CFR). This is going to be directly related to the above parameters PLUS the availability of quality care. It's easy to broad brush certain countries as having a subpar healthcare system, like Cambodia, or having a great healthcare system, like the US. In that case, you would expect the CFR to be higher in Cambodia than in the US. That is a fair conclusion. But the wildcard is the word "availability". A significant and rapid increase in cases will overload any system. There aren't enough ICU beds in the US, or anywhere else for that matter, to accommodate 15% of a rapidly growing case load. That fact is critical to understand.

The last thing to keep in mind is the fact that there are many places where this thing exists that do not have the capability to test for it or haven't begun broad testing for it yet. Most cases are mild. So think how easy it is for a person walking around with what they feel is just a cold to spread this to someone else who spreads it to someone else who then gets really sick and goes into a medical center who has the ability to and decides to test for it. Right now, it's not common practice to test for it where there is no outbreak.

The bottom line is that it is in a lot of places going undetected right now. It is likely here in the US in that fashion. The CDC is implementing testing in certain states for anyone who has flu-like symptoms, but that isn't in place yet, I don't think.

Is it time to panic? No. But will this will get here, if it's not here already. You can, if you choose to watch and listen, hear the messaging slowly changing from leadership and authorities. When it's time to get really concerned, it will be too late to do the things you want to do. It's good to start to get your mind around what you need if you feel compelled (or are compelled) to stay in the house for a month or two. There's no need to run for the hills, but having basic medical supplies and foods that can sustain you for a period of time makes practical sense. So does having masks, gloves, disinfectants, etc.

Hopefully, we don't end up with a severe problem. But this virus is the real deal. Look at the global response. Learn the facts about the disease, which, while note the most deadly virus in history, is certainly a type of virus that we have not had to deal with in a very, very long time.
Click to expand...

Hopefully this outbreak will diminish as the weather warms. Many viruses thrive on cold/dry air in addition to it being more easily spread when more folks are indoors. If there's one good thing about heat and humidity, it is that it tends to kill off virus outbreaks. That's why flu outbreaks always diminish in spring.
 
How often has anyone heard about the warlords in Africa recently? More deadly than coronavirus but without a catchy Kony2012 news media hype who cares? And that kills far more children and women.
 
Rain Cold said:
It's pretty insidious. I am pretty confident that it didn't just come out of a bat. My guess is it is the result of something worked on in a biolab.

Anyway, there are a couple of really important things to keep in mind, one of which you said. You can have it, carry it, and spread it (in some cases dramatically so) for anywhere from 3 - 27 days, all while not knowing you have it. The other thing is that it is extremely contagious....much, much more contagious than the flu. These two things virtually ensure that it will spread around the world.

Other items of note are the fact that the Case Fatality Rate appears to be between 2-3% (compared with 0.1% for the normal flu). This may drop as more reliable data comes out. Also, the serious complication rate is somewhere between 15-20%. That means medical intervention (hospital stay, ICU bed, respirator, etc.). And as you pointed out, most of the deaths occur with older people and people who have preexisting health issues. One other important note: We have no previous exposure (as a human race) to this virus. There is no herd immunity. There are no natural firewalls to it.

Mutation is also possible. Many viruses mutate. That is pretty common, actually. It can become more or less infectious and more or less virulent (deadly) or any combination of those things. So far, they say that it hasn't mutated. But the more people it infects, the higher the probability of mutation.

So back to the case fatality rate (CFR). This is going to be directly related to the above parameters PLUS the availability of quality care. It's easy to broad brush certain countries as having a subpar healthcare system, like Cambodia, or having a great healthcare system, like the US. In that case, you would expect the CFR to be higher in Cambodia than in the US. That is a fair conclusion. But the wildcard is the word "availability". A significant and rapid increase in cases will overload any system. There aren't enough ICU beds in the US, or anywhere else for that matter, to accommodate 15% of a rapidly growing case load. That fact is critical to understand.

The last thing to keep in mind is the fact that there are many places where this thing exists that do not have the capability to test for it or haven't begun broad testing for it yet. Most cases are mild. So think how easy it is for a person walking around with what they feel is just a cold to spread this to someone else who spreads it to someone else who then gets really sick and goes into a medical center who has the ability to and decides to test for it. Right now, it's not common practice to test for it where there is no outbreak.

The bottom line is that it is in a lot of places going undetected right now. It is likely here in the US in that fashion. The CDC is implementing testing in certain states for anyone who has flu-like symptoms, but that isn't in place yet, I don't think.

Is it time to panic? No. But will this will get here, if it's not here already. You can, if you choose to watch and listen, hear the messaging slowly changing from leadership and authorities. When it's time to get really concerned, it will be too late to do the things you want to do. It's good to start to get your mind around what you need if you feel compelled (or are compelled) to stay in the house for a month or two. There's no need to run for the hills, but having basic medical supplies and foods that can sustain you for a period of time makes practical sense. So does having masks, gloves, disinfectants, etc.

Hopefully, we don't end up with a severe problem. But this virus is the real deal. Look at the global response. Learn the facts about the disease, which, while not the most deadly virus in history, is certainly a type of virus that we have not had to deal with in a very, very long time.
Click to expand...
Yeah honestly I would bet there’s people in the US that have it that has mild symptoms/no symptoms so they don’t know themselves, the virus is not worrying because of its death rate (even tho is elevated for a respiratory illness), but it’s ability to crash the economy/spread like wildfire/completely shut down areas and cause shortages
 
Snowless & Grumpy said:
If you mean by above normal good. I consider that nice. March is usually cold miserable and raw but too warm for snow. Bring on spring!
Click to expand...

You must mean "bring back spring" rather than "bring on spring" because that's what's dominated the least few months. Cold in the SE is not miserable to me. However, if it would help to kill off the Corona virus before it gets bad here, then I'd say bring on the warmth as much as I wouldn't want it otherwise.
 
Parker said:
My go to is always a Texas rigged 7.5 inch zoom curly tail plastic worm in junebug or red bug. We had a bachelor weekend down in south Alabama for a buddy and hunted pigs all weekend, drank beer, shot guns, and did some fishing. These all were on a pumpkinseed worm. Good eating size!
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June bug is an amazing color. Sexy shad was huge for a while with the hard baits, but june bug has worked in every location I've thrown it in, regardless of weather condition!

You know those stick worms, that they use for dropshot rigs? The Junebug YUM ones work amazingly well, especially in ponds close to banks. I toss a light weight on em far down the line, (sort of dropshottish), and just throw it out pull it in a bit, let it settle again. The worm just wobbles there and responds to the natural vibe of the water.
 
TripleJ185 said:
Here's a little more from the Tweet he sent out (hopefully his tweets are public):
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Lol, that guy is using a raspberry PI ...

mk. i look forward to seeing forecasts generated once a week for one hour of a day.

This does give me some good ideas for my raspberry pi though. I'm going to install wrf on it, just for fun and see what I can tweak around to make an in house RPM just for my area. WRF-ARW with fixed precip types, here I come!
 
cd2play said:
This morning's run says "what snow?"
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Huh? it sure looks like snow in Nashville to me from wed-Sunday. Last 2 Gfs runs.
 

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