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Misc Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade

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superjames1992 said:
The 12z NAM backed down a bit vs. the 06z. Toss.

It's nowcast time, so now we throw away all the models that don't give us as much snow as we want we have lived and died by for days and instead look at radar hallucinations.
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NAM is just coming back to reality and aligning with the other models. When the NAM went north and nothing joined it that was a big red flag that it was over amplified. If any other model on earth had gone as far north and wet as the NAM it would have been slightly more believable.
 
Brick Tamland said:
I am the same way. Not thrilled by the latest NAM. Looks like a 2 to 4 event for most folks. I really thought up this way it would be more around 6. Better than nothing, though.
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It still might be, who knows. We can still hope for the last minute NW trend, or that precip overperforms as it often has this winter with our plentiful rainstorms. The Gulf and Atlantic must be locked and losses with plenty of energy considering how warm it's been (granted, models already take this into account).

Should be a decent event, regardless, especially more over towards you.
 
HRRR continues to show all rain in RDU through around 6pm. Really hope it is an issue with the p type maps on the model. But the HRRR does show daytime highs in the mid-40s which is warmer than other models.
 
SD said:
NAM is just coming back to reality and aligning with the other models. When the NAM went north and nothing joined it that was a big red flag that it was over amplified. If any other model on earth had gone as far north and wet as the NAM it would have been slightly more believable.
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I will say the NAM led the way with the initial north jaunt when most other modeling was really flat and OTS, though, so at least it proved to be of some value. It seems it has played into its biases in the shorter range, though. Granted, I think we all knew those widespread 12"+ totals were just the NAM being the NAM.
 
Brick Tamland said:
I am the same way. Not thrilled by the latest NAM. Looks like a 2 to 4 event for most folks. I really thought up this way it would be more around 6. Better than nothing, though.
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I think what happens is that expectations get set high by bullish talk and pretty snow maps. The conservative point of view tends to be cast aside as debbie downer talk.

The reality is, this is a less than ideal setup for a big SE winter storm. So, it doesn't seem wise to expect or forecast the ideal, high-end snow amounts. It's a lot easier to get less snow than more snow around here, by an order of magnitude even, in just about every situation. It's fun to wish for a lot of snow, but the weather doesn't really care much about what we wish it would do.
 
3bbb43e8cf9efb92a458c85a6494d4ba.jpg

My Redbone Coonhound has never seen or played in snow before. She’s 1.5 yrs old. I hope she gets the chance for some deep snow to play in.
 
Sleet City USA said:
I mean they didn't do so hot last time around, that's why I had doubts. I still think we'll see snow today
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About what we got a couple of weeks ago. Maybe if we are lucky. As far as getting over 1-2 inches of snow here in upstate SC it may be 10+ years before it happens again. We will not get an event like Jan 1988 in any of our lifetimes. Events like that are gone forever for this entire board.
 
JHS said:
About what we got a couple of weeks ago. Maybe if we are lucky. As far as getting over 1-2 inches of snow here in upstate SC it may be 10+ years before it happens again. We will not get an event like Jan 1988 in any of our lifetimes. Events like that are gone forever for this entire board.
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I'm at least 100% sure that's wrong
 
JHS said:
About what we got a couple of weeks ago. Maybe if we are lucky. As far as getting over 1-2 inches of snow here in upstate SC it may be 10+ years before it happens again. We will not get an event like Jan 1988 in any of our lifetimes. Events like that are gone forever for this entire board.
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Thanks for letting us know for the 3rd time in 24 hours.
 
SD said:
NAM is just coming back to reality and aligning with the other models. When the NAM went north and nothing joined it that was a big red flag that it was over amplified. If any other model on earth had gone as far north and wet as the NAM it would have been slightly more believable.
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Dude your gonna love the HRRR
 
metwannabe said:
Dude your gonna love the HRRR
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That model is getting sexy. About 0.5" QPF here, which probably translates to 2-4" factoring in mixing, fatal ratios, and melting. About what I'm expecting. Looks better for Raleigh, though, and it seems to be consistently shifting the precip field NW in recent runs.
 
superjames1992 said:
That model is getting sexy. About 0.5" QPF here, which probably translates to 2-4" factoring in mixing, fatal ratios, and melting. About what I'm expecting. Looks better for Raleigh, though, and it seems to be consistently shifting the precip field NW in recent runs.
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And I still think it's too warm with the BL
 
Now that I see how the moisture has set up. I’m calling for a lot of disappointments from Greensboro north and west.
Winston-Salem-Greensboro 1 inch.
Northwest of Winston-Salem dusting at best! Burlington on East 2 to 6 inches max in NE NC.
 
This is still pretty to look at. A couple of hours of snow is always a good day

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KyloG said:
I don't want to jinx you and RainCold but this could be one of those events that it pays off to be where you guys over say Greensboro.
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Funny that Brad P continues to keep the 4-6 stripe right over my house. I thought he was just trolling me, since you know there are eyes on this board that stay incognito but that may end up being right
 
KyloG said:
I don't want to jinx you and RainCold but this could be one of those events that it pays off to be where you guys over say Greensboro.
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If RDU doesn't beat GSO in this setup, we should just move to Florida, TBH. It would make our cause hopeless.
 
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