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Misc Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade

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Funny enough it just is no where near as amped as the nam. Helps me out a lot based off soundings, ground temps aren't great though.
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Kinda looks like the RAP.
 
SD said:
Its been a long time since we've had a system where imby I said wow we went over. Right off hand I'm drawing a blank
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I think it was that storm that caught everyone off guard where someone posted a photo shop pic of the snow walker with the burning cars.
 
From my experience, HRRR is good for determining where the heaviest bands of precip is setting up, not neccessarily it's thermal profile. Who knows though...could be firing a warning shot, but I never thought it was accurate for determine p-type in winter storm situations.
 
Sleet City USA said:
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Fwiw the HRRR was terrible with the recent GA snow event until it was already falling.
 
Also, isn't this pretty far out of the HRRR's useful range? Yes, I'm a weenie deflecting.
 
Rain Cold said:
Lol come on man. :p
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Just saying man. There are 2 or 3 panels on the 3k where you are like ok that's sleet. The rest are either thin or deeper but barely above freezing. I guess my point is if we get a more dynamic system like the nam I wouldn't be surprised if we had more ip/sn mix than just hours of sleet. But that's just looking at 18z the 0z could obviously come in and flip me the bird with a more significant warm nose. On another note the gfs is about what you would want to see for our area
 
Most models give me an average of 3 inches. Nam is north, gfs is east, ukie is over me with their respective lollipops.

Yet for whatever reason the MHX office doesnt have me going over to ALL snow until 1AM friday morning.

This is maddening.
 
SD said:
Just saying man. There are 2 or 3 panels on the 3k where you are like ok that's sleet. The rest are either thin or deeper but barely above freezing. I guess my point is if we get a more dynamic system like the nam I wouldn't be surprised if we had more ip/sn mix than just hours of sleet. But that's just looking at 18z the 0z could obviously come in and flip me the bird with a more significant warm nose. On another note the gfs is about what you would want to see for our area
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Once the low moves off just a bit any warm nose goes away, and there should be some serious banding on the NW side over central and eastern NC.....if the NAM is even half right with totals then the 264 corridor from RDU to Washington NC gets at least 5-8"...….so we might have to suffer thru 2-4 hrs of mixed trash to get to the good stuff but once we flip the NAM gives us 10-12 hrs of snow.
 
Stormdoc said:
I think it was that storm that caught everyone off guard where someone posted a photo shop pic of the snow walker with the burning cars.
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That arrived earlier than expected I'm not sure totals were far off from forecast. I do remember the warm nose came north like a rocket when it kicked in though and went from Fay to RDU in no less than 1 hour
 
SD said:
For some of us in the sleet zone tomorrow the rates will overcome statement will be put to the test. Thin warm nose with plenty of lift and some cape indicating convective elements in the precip. Do rates beat the warm nose?
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Best I can say, and wish I could tell you more, is watch CC. The sleet line will set up shop and once this thing begins to pivot and transition offshore it should setup more north to south and most everyone should get snow on the backside. I’ve seen ungodly rates not be able to erode a warm nose. I’ve seen dark blue radar returns with heavy rain as ground truth. This is overused, but it’s nowcast time.
 
Can somebody post that DWArF model when it runs? Thanks in advance. I need something to hold in my hands when I jump
 
SD said:
That arrived earlier than expected I'm not sure totals were far off from forecast. I do remember the warm nose came north like a rocket when it kicked in though and went from Fay to RDU in no less than 1 hour
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Yeah, the snow came a lot earlier than expected, but so did the changeover to pingers, so it wasn’t really a bust in the snowfall amounts, but rather the timing.
 
SD said:
Just saying man. There are 2 or 3 panels on the 3k where you are like ok that's sleet. The rest are either thin or deeper but barely above freezing. I guess my point is if we get a more dynamic system like the nam I wouldn't be surprised if we had more ip/sn mix than just hours of sleet. But that's just looking at 18z the 0z could obviously come in and flip me the bird with a more significant warm nose. On another note the gfs is about what you would want to see for our area
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I know man. I'm just kidding around. If you can't joke about the warm Nose, what can you joke about. I do think that as long as we don't see any mega shifts, we have a good shot at a couple inches. Hopefully, rates will be good. That will be the deciding factor. GFS looks good, but it really doesn't pick up warm layers very well. The Nam and Euro do a pretty good job there, and I guess eventually the short range stuff.
 
Rain Cold said:
I know man. I'm just kidding around. If you can't joke about the warm Nose, what can you joke about. I do think that as long as we don't see any mega shifts, we have a good shot at a couple inches. Hopefully, rates will be good. That will be the deciding factor. GFS looks good, but it really doesn't pick up warm layers very well. The Nam and Euro do a pretty good job there, and I guess eventually the short range stuff.
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Yeah I think 1-2 around here is a safe call. After actually looking deeper into the models now that im home I do believe there is a respectable ceiling around 4. If we can get the better fgen band to roll through as it orients more SW/NE later in the event we could get a few hours of the .5-1 inch per hour stuff. I think we may be too far south and west though
 
@RainCold I hope you get mauled. You put a lot of time and thought into these forums and I know everyone appreciates it. If any Jabroni on this forum deserves snow, (or sleet ?) it’s you.

This brings me back to one of my favorite sayings: It can’t not snow forever.
 
SD said:
Yeah I think 1-2 around here is a safe call. After actually looking deeper into the models now that im home I do believe there is a respectable ceiling around 4. If we can get the better fgen band to roll through as it orients more SW/NE later in the event we could get a few hours of the .5-1 inch per hour stuff. I think we may be too far south and west though
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We need a call map from you, Shane! :)
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
@RainCold I hope you get mauled. You put a lot of time and thought into these forums and I know everyone appreciates it. If any Jabroni on this forum deserves snow, (or sleet ?) it’s you.

This brings me back to one of my favorite sayings: It can’t not snow forever.
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Thanks man. Bro hug

I'm happy we actually get to track something. A big part of the fun is tracking all this mess together.
 
LovingGulfLows said:
This forum feels oddly quiet for the day before a winter storm.
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That happened last year too. Like all kinds of maps get posted and disco goes on up until about 12 hours out. Everyone gets burned out, I guess.
 
Rain Cold said:
That happened last year too. Like all kinds of maps get posted and disco goes on up until about 12 hours out. Everyone gets burned out, I guess.
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The time period between nowcasting and the actual storm. Nothing else to look at...just waiting for the storm to appear. Lot's a focus and discussion on this one. I do feel a bit burned out! lol.
 
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