I’m cliff diving. Latest stuff shows far NE NC missing out. NWS Wakefield has me at a 9% chance to see .1” of snow. Good luck to everyone south of me!
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Misc Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
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GeorgiaGirl
Member
I'd lean toward the Euro being wrong at least on amount of precip, but who knows on other factors. It might end up staying south or who knows where it goes.
Why? It's been the year to be soaking wet. There's already been a couple cases where you had to wait until 12z of the day of the event or just look out the window if you're an Euro thumper.
I understand being conservative though. Right now I'd probably just be saying 1-3" in some areas in NC with the possibility of it being more, stay tuned.
Why? It's been the year to be soaking wet. There's already been a couple cases where you had to wait until 12z of the day of the event or just look out the window if you're an Euro thumper.
I understand being conservative though. Right now I'd probably just be saying 1-3" in some areas in NC with the possibility of it being more, stay tuned.
I’m going diving after lunch time if euro doesn’t go ham over NC.
WXinCanton
Member
NAM after 48 is also known as the DGEX.
Doubtful after seeing the UKMET
I’ll wager the Euro is a blend of the Ukie, CMC, Icon
Which is essentially what it’s past couple runs have been. There is pretty good model agreement with the globals. The NAM’s...well are the NAM’s, which we all know.
GFS has gone from lakes cutter to suppressed to NC snowstorm since the storm was picked up last week..so you can maybe see why you wouldn’t want a GFS/NAM combo as your snowstorm selling point
packfan98
Moderator
VETO. I must have a T...
Strongly rooting for the WRF triplets...I’ve always been a big believer in that model suite 
Sold, I don't need a receipt
So what you’re saying is I need to head to the cottage in Kill Devil Hills?
Wasn't there a huge NW shift late with the overrunning precip with that one? I recall being shocked by the totals in areas like New Bern, which received 10". I'm pretty sure forecasts were way underdone. It was a little frustrating to miss out in GSO, but then we got hammered by a great storm the following day so it was all good.
WXinCanton
Member
Don't bother with globals at this range they say. Lol
Ron Burgundy
Member
Poor Brick.
Euro completely ---- the bed again. I'm having a hard time believing it's that wrong. It's been the most steady showing nothing for days.
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
If I were a betting man I would assume the NAM is bluffing and I'd consider calling it's bluff.
Its crazy to be sitting here 48-60 hours from an event and have a difference of 10 inches between models and its not due to a warm nose.
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
Brick makes his own snow
Avalanche
Member
Then came the morning (mourning)
nam will fold here at 18z most likely. at least upstate to clt don't have to worry about a warm nose and can hope we get precip 75-100 miles north to get some flakes and get our 3rd trace of the season, nice!
I just don't see how both the NAM and GFS can be that wrong. I mean, the Euro isn't even close, in any way, shape or form. I will worry more if the NAM and GFS start trending away, but man if that's the case, I am never looking at those two models again!
It seems like normally the ECMWF shows massive totals and the NAM brings us to reality with the warm nose. With many recent winter storms like January 2016/2017, the ECMWF struggled with p-type by showing snow instead of sleet/ZR. I'm not sure about the ECMWF in this case.
can't remember whose signature it was but it read "if a model shows snow in the south past 48hrs, don't believe it!"
good advice.
good advice.
Avalanche
Member
Hope this failure doesn't turn Brick into a pessimist. I enjoy his relentless quest for optimism.
I've seen the NAM miss at this range plenty of times. But the Euro, even though it aint what it used to be, is probably not out to lunch here...at least not THAT out to lunch. Kind of already know how this is going to end. Hopefully, we at least get one or two more runs of the NAM to keep it interesting.
Also ask yourself, can the Euro really be that wrong? Something is about to bust bad.
Yeah, my goal was to get NAM'd...and we've been NAM'd 4 runs in a row. About all you can hope for around here.
Avalanche
Member
Already thought of negative abbreviations the NAM could stand for.
Goodbye
Avalanche
Member
Come on man, certainly there'll be another cold push and Alberta clipper diving down before Spring.
Brent
Member
I wish yall luck but I have been burned by the NAM too many times
I agree. Question is, which one? And how bad? I swear all this model madness is giving me anxiety. I think all of us could benefit from a Zanax or some alcohol at this juncture.
Avalanche
Member
Sprite, house Gin, and a splash of sour. Old school Tom Collins.
It's funny....if the Euro was on top of the NAM right now we would be lamenting the inevitable north trend inside 60 hours.
That actually sounds good. Might have one tonight. That or a strong imperial IPA! Probably going to need it for tonight's model suit.
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