Avalanche
Member
Yes, I'm afraid the only winter storm I'm going to see is the ice in the blender.
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Misc Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
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Yes, I'm afraid the only winter storm I'm going to see is the ice in the blender.
That's what she said!
That's because there's literally no way to win here. It seems near impossible to track a snowstorm for Raleigh with more than 24 hours lead time. If it looks good, it moves NW and screws us with rain. If it looks west, it stays west. If it looks SE, it stays SE. If every other event has trended north all winter, this one will stay south. If soundings support snow all the way from 240 through 6 hours out, a magical warm nose appears and we get sleet.
I'm standing by my early call from last week that we're going to be standing at OBX, squinting to see a few flakes mixed in with the sprinkles.
Thor
Member
My Thursday plan is as follows.
1. Open strongest bottle of bourbon I have(currently 137 proof Elijah Craig Barrel Proof)
2. Sit on porch drinking said Bourbon.
3. Continue to drink said Bourbon until I see a snowflake or pass out.
1. Open strongest bottle of bourbon I have(currently 137 proof Elijah Craig Barrel Proof)
2. Sit on porch drinking said Bourbon.
3. Continue to drink said Bourbon until I see a snowflake or pass out.
It just feels odd to think we'll see a last second SE shift from the GFS and NAM when the opposite usually happens and the heaviest totals are north and west of forecast.
Avalanche
Member
Oh, I thought he was talking about "the surgery"
Avalanche
Member
Man, if these models don't reverse course and bring us some good totals we will all be in danger of becoming misfits. The Breakfast Club of weather.
Yep, I think we stay mostly dry, maybe a sprinkle. I think if snow falls at all it will in SE part of state, like SE of PGV. I know the Euro was really wrong about 10 days ago, but I find it hard to believe a model that good could this be wrong at 48 hours out on consecutive events.
I know it's the RAP model, but it shows a really nice setup for most of us. And this is kinda off topic, but does anyone have maps of the setup from the February 12-13th storm? I know this storm is nothing like that one but was that an overrunning event? I know we had a low in the Gulf too. But I was a lot younger then, so I don't really recall.
Good choice on the Elijah ??
Avalanche
Member
Trust me, we can fill in the blanks here.
Anyone have Euro verification scores at the sfc?
Our local guys around CAE have basically said their in house "perfect winter weather" scenario isn't met. Mainly because it's cold chasing moisture.. didn't use those words.. but basically even the NWS is saying it, haha. That's when I gave up outside a flizzard with any moisture possibly left around these parts.
"
Local top down tool
indicates a period of rain/snow mix Thu nt for the central and
east FA. Confidence limited due to several key factors in our
local perfect storm approach for significant winter weather not
being met. Main issue is cold air not being in place before the
onset of precip but rather is coming in as the
precipitation/moisture is shifting out.
"
"
Local top down tool
indicates a period of rain/snow mix Thu nt for the central and
east FA. Confidence limited due to several key factors in our
local perfect storm approach for significant winter weather not
being met. Main issue is cold air not being in place before the
onset of precip but rather is coming in as the
precipitation/moisture is shifting out.
"
WPC's Model Diagnostics and Verification Page
Edit, the charts suck though.. hopefully someone may have a better source.
smast16
Member
No that's just the ashes of him burning this MOFO to the ground.
Ron Burgundy
Member
That’s certainly the same for metro ATL - both good and bad. Just in the past few years we’ve had straight rain on a 3-5” NWS snow forecast in Jan 2017, the surprise big snow in Dec 2017, and last weekend’s surprise pasting of the northern ‘burbs. That’s a big part of the reason I hang around here - you get a much better feel for the variables and possibilities than you do from local Mets. This place is the reason I had my wife pull my son out of school an hour before snowmaggedon started in 2014. She thought I was nuts. A few hours later they were home and all her friends were hopelessly stuck on the roads and everyone thought I was a wizard.
packfan98
Moderator
I believe that post was from 2017 when we had winter storms...
Yeah that is what I was kind of getting at, the model isn't prone to errors. 2 times in the past 5 years it's had me near a foot of snow within 60 hours and I still don't have a foot of snow.
I think you’re right. I think I’m going to see nada. I don’t think @Brick Tamland will see anything either.
SE trend! FTL. I bet if this damn low was hugging the coast and we needed 100 miles east it would trend NW
LickWx
Member
If we can't even get a flake out of this, winter 2019-20 becomes my unquestioned least favorite winter of all time for RDU. At least GSP and northern ATL has seen flakes when we can't even get a flurry. We lucked out big in 2018 but ever since we've sucked.
I'm jacked about the bomb the 18z NAM is going to show.
Being completely honest I don't think we get blanked here.
LOL! It’s not like the EPS is just slightly worse than the NAM...it’s littered with mostly whiffs......god almighty
EPS has me feeling like I might be in the jackpot zone outside of the mountains and NC coast..I’ll take my dusting and run! In the words of the great RC, “Come to Butthead.”
Fiddy
SnowNiner
Member
It's amazing how dry it is. The 2 camps couldn't be further apart. One of the models will live in infamy after the next 2 days, one way or another...
It’s going to be epic when this system just kisses the highest peaks along the TN/NC border..??
smast16
Member
I really am blown away at this. Nam holds strong!
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