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Misc Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade

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Webberweather53 said:
NOAA uses arbitrarily defined thresholds for ENSO criteria and only uses ERSSTv5 for their analyses (my ENS ONI is a lot better). There's definitely a pretty clear NINO lean to this winter that's not normally present even in "official" events & I've stated my case on here many times and on twitter and I certainly don't feel like repeating myself again.

You don't get extreme tropical +AAM spikes like this when ENSO is "neutral" (which it's clearly not this year), in fact the tropical +AAM was so strong that it was westerly in the means for the first time ever in the satellite era.



Nor do you see incessant dateline westerly wind bursts for several months in a row when ENSO is "neutral", the base state has to be advanced enough towards El Nino to do this, which it is this year.
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As for a previous post where it was claimed 1939-40, 1951-52 2008-09, & 1979-80 were "neutral" ENSO winters

1951-52 was a weak-moderate NINO winter, 2008-09 was a La Nina winter, 1939-40 was a late blooming moderate El Nino, 1979-80 by some metrics was also an El Nino.

This is taken from my webpage & research on the Oceanic Nino Index which uses twenty six SST reconstructions and reanalysis datasets. The values derived here are more robust & meaningful than NOAA's which uses only ERRSTv5 (w/ no quality control of the data):
https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

It's in really close agreement w/ NOAA's index over the latter portions of the record, only differences emerging from the fact that I use a lot more datasets and filter out bad/potentially spurious data.

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I asked nicely, if you don't feel like repeating yourself then don't do so. Thanks anyway.
 
Webberweather53 said:
NOAA uses arbitrarily defined thresholds for ENSO criteria and only uses ERSSTv5 for their analyses (my ENS ONI is a lot better). There's definitely a pretty clear NINO lean to this winter that's not normally present even in "official" events & I've stated my case on here many times and on twitter and I certainly don't feel like repeating myself again.

You don't get extreme tropical +AAM spikes like this when ENSO is "neutral" (which it's clearly not this year), in fact the tropical +AAM was so strong that it was westerly in the means for the first time ever in the satellite era.



Nor do you see incessant dateline westerly wind bursts for several months in a row when ENSO is "neutral", the base state has to be advanced enough towards El Nino to do this, which it is this year.
View attachment 31685






As for a previous post where it was claimed 1939-40, 1951-52 2008-09, & 1979-80 were "neutral" ENSO winters

1951-52 was a weak-moderate NINO winter, 2008-09 was a La Nina winter, 1939-40 was a late blooming moderate El Nino, 1979-80 by some metrics was also an El Nino.

This is taken from my webpage & research on the Oceanic Nino Index which uses twenty six SST reconstructions and reanalysis datasets. The values derived here are more robust & meaningful than NOAA's which uses only ERRSTv5 (w/ no quality control of the data):
https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

It's in really close agreement w/ NOAA's index over the latter portions of the record, only differences emerging from the fact that I use a lot more datasets and filter out bad/potentially spurious data.

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I agree with all of this history except Don was referring to the Feb of 1979 storm, meaning he was referring to the neutral 1978-9 rather than the El Niño of 1979-80.
 
Jon said:
I asked nicely, if you don't feel like repeating yourself then don't do so. Thanks anyway.
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I wasn't trying to be a ---- there btw, the discrepancies always emerge from subjectively defined thresholds of what's an El Nino or not and the definitions and indices used to define ENSO don't even explain a majority of the total variance. For ex, a seemingly insignificant +0.2-0.3C anomaly in the West Pac can have the same relative prowess globally as a +1C anomaly east of the dateline because the mean SSTs are cooler further east and don't readily support convection.
 
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WxWatch said:
Not all years had a continuation of a Nino or Nina.

Sent from my SM-A102U using Tapatalk
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Just because the SSTs in some random region of the tropical pacific fall barely below a certain threshold value definitely doesn't mean El Nino is automatically over. ENSO's footprint on the global circulation often permeates for a few-several months after the SSTAs go away and 1951-52 was still characteristically a NINO in late winter.
 


Coming up on the 20th anniversary of the Carolina Crusher. Discussion from CAE that day is incredible. Goes from a chance of flurries to a sudden snowstorm.
 
This storm really hurt my feelings bad. I was one state away from total snow bliss. 3. FEET. OF. SNOW! Can we please get one of these in East Central NC?!

 
If we get another "once in a lifetime Superstorm" that gives me a dusting of snow for the second time, I will break something.

Webberweather53 said:
That GFS run basically just tried to do its best impression of the March 93 superstorm w/ 3 separate shortwaves phasing into the base of the trough over the Gulf coast.

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Coming to you soon...

(This was from the 18z GFS last week, Wednesday) I'd expect to see something similar, but maybe not as extreme with snow totals. We shall see!
21d6bc9dab9affd4009cabcdc4b2ca35.jpg


Sent from my SM-A102U using Tapatalk
 
How is this low not producing snow!? It's literally a perfect track
 

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