Regardless of popular belief lately with the NAM and all..... the Euro needs to trend wetter and colder towards the other guidance by 00z tomorrow or something's up. Guess it's on to the ensembles. Probably a good bet to use them right now.
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Misc Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
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I’m guessing the ensembles are going to look pretty bleak considering the op.
I really want to toss the Euro at this stage, but that’s a tough pill to swallow. Hopefully, we see more agreement tomorrow. We often do see precip further N/W than modeled with overrunning setups, so that gives me some some hope up in my neck of the woods.
I guess it’s NAM/GGEM/ICON vs. Euro/UKMET right now with the GFS straddling the middle somewhere, but taking a step towards the NAM/GGEM/ICON tonight. I kind of am okay with the UKMET being a southern outlier given its biases, but I’d rather not see the Euro so different.
Brent
Member
It's not known as Dr. No for nothing
Now I'm remembering how the Euro kept saying no snow here the other week when the other models were hyped and boom it didn't snow
Every other piece of guidance has significant moisture getting North.. the Euro just kind of fizzles. It's making me really start to wonder if it's going to come in colder on subsequent runs here soon (maybe the EPS) and try to throw an old solution out again. I have no idea.. I don't think the deep South will see another 10 inch + type of op run.. but somethings up. Maybe I'm wishcasting slightly.
If you live south or east of Greensboro you’re going to be very disappointed I’m afraid.
Looking good sure, but it's a very sharp cut off due to temps that I don't think will end up working out.
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
Yes...pretty sure I got about 5-6" of snow just north of downtown Kernersville, but the southside of Kernersville had much less.I lived in High Point then and all we got was sleet, too. I think areas just north of Greensboro made out a lot better, though.
Not a single member that looks like the NAM. It would be an epic bust by the Euro it if all of a sudden flipped to something the NAM is showing. In my time following weather I don’t think I have ever seen it.
EPS has 8/51 over 2”. 1–2” max at best looks reasonable though.
EPS has 8/51 over 2”. 1–2” max at best looks reasonable though.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The run-to-run swings on the EPS have been absurd with this storm, it's been anything but consistent w/ this storm the last few days.
Yeah, but kind of need the euro or uk to hop on board. Riding with the B team can’t be good. We are 60 hours from go time.
The UK did shift NW at 0z by a good margin
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The Euro has been extremely late to the party w/ the 2 winter events we've seen this year, I'm personally not too worried yet, especially since it agrees w/ the SREF, which is usually dead wrong at this stage in the game.
My goodness, the 06z NAM is mouth watering. From going to bed heartbroken by the Euro to seeing that first thing in the morning was quite the swing of emotions.
BufordWX
Member
06z gfs tried hard to show a big storm at the start of March but looks to have just missed. Almost looks like a weaker/warmer version of 1993 but it will be gone by 12z. Still fun to look at.
Rates will overcome.
I no longer feel concerned by the euro being on the dry end of guidance. It's like the gfs coming north and the nam being too high on its qpf.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
While it's trending better for Carolina folks, it's getting worse for GA. I think it's going to be just too warm for snow at this point outside the mountains.
Yeah idk what happened with the new euro upgrade but the op hates precipitation it was way too dry all summer and its been in the lower 25% of the mean most of the winter. Rarely is it ever equal to the mean or in the top 50%
smast16
Member
Move OVER! I'm getting on board too! CHOO CHOO!!!
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Nam is running, good luck everyone and congrats gso.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
We need Champ here to give us the play by play.
Shaggy
Member
Huge red flags here. NWS at morehead city putting tons of eggs in the euro basket.
Today`s forecast leans toward the
ECMWF for a couple of reasons:
1.) The deterministic ECMWF and the EPS (Euro ensembles) are in
strong agreement, with the ECMWF being the most stable solution
the past few runs. The EPS probability of 1" of snow or greater
has been around 45-50% for the last few runs.
2.) The GFS ensembles average a bit lower than their
deterministic counterpart, and in fact are close to the ECMWF
and its members.
Have put snowfall accumulations in the grids, although even then
this is under the ECMWF solution due to expected warm surface
temperatures which should initially melt the snow (apart from
grassy surfaces and higher elevations) and the fact that coastal
winter storms like this generally feature SLRs well below 10:1.
For now, show generally under an inch for interior zones with
lower amounts towards the coast. It should be emphasized this
forecast is fluid and will be closely monitored, but at this
time it does not appear to be a high-impact event.
Today`s forecast leans toward the
ECMWF for a couple of reasons:
1.) The deterministic ECMWF and the EPS (Euro ensembles) are in
strong agreement, with the ECMWF being the most stable solution
the past few runs. The EPS probability of 1" of snow or greater
has been around 45-50% for the last few runs.
2.) The GFS ensembles average a bit lower than their
deterministic counterpart, and in fact are close to the ECMWF
and its members.
Have put snowfall accumulations in the grids, although even then
this is under the ECMWF solution due to expected warm surface
temperatures which should initially melt the snow (apart from
grassy surfaces and higher elevations) and the fact that coastal
winter storms like this generally feature SLRs well below 10:1.
For now, show generally under an inch for interior zones with
lower amounts towards the coast. It should be emphasized this
forecast is fluid and will be closely monitored, but at this
time it does not appear to be a high-impact event.
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
I don't like this game any more
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Definitely dead for N GA after this run. No way we beat the warm nose.
smast16
Member
3K NAM is on board, too, though it appears faster than the 32K.
Check out the Lift in the DGZ for kville at hours 57 and 60 on the 3k. Plus Below freezing for the whole column! Bout to get fun for us.
Yea it sucks we’ve seen this a million times, and we have all day tomorrow to watch it jump further.
yep hard to ignore the writing on the wall it’ll jump north a few more times before Thursday if you’re on the edge of the snow line now you’ll be lucky to see sleet come verification.
if you think this doesn't end up a sleet storm for most of the board you haven't been tracking storms in this area long. we have seen this before many, many times.
Here comes the warm nose and wake county gradient. I'll see you guys next winter
Don’t you just love winter storms in NC? Don’t bother washing your car it’s going to get a good rinse this week.
every time. models spit out crazy snow totals, everyone gets excited and then as the nam comes into range it shows a warm nose and you try to convince yourself it is wrong, but deep down you know...
---- sucks. I've never seen the nam overdo a warm nose. Good for brick though his 20 inches in the last 2 winters wasn't enough I'm sure
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Brick Tamland
Guest
Y'all are too much. If I can be positive after the basketball season Carolina is having, y'all can be, too.
NoSnowATL
Member
I’m very thankful I was able to get my almost 4in last weekend. Hope you NC guys get some which looks like a lock at this point. I feel bad for the SC guys y’all can’t catch a break.
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I hope the euro is rightI will happily take having to worry about a warm nose
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