Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

[MichaelJ]

That's the first time I've heard this. Is there a source for this?

Maybe what I should have said is they use similar data but use different equations to assimilate the data which is why the 12K or 3K NAM catches on quicker (but not as far out in time in hours) but they tend to narrow the difference as the event gets closer.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

while this model ain't the best, it looks similar to the NAM

 

[MichaelJ]

It does seem like at least a small part of the board will have some accumulating snow, most likely extreme ENC

 

[Snowflowxxl]

while this model ain't the best, it looks similar to the NAM
View attachment 35233

That model has a very significant cold bias. I’m not sure about any moisture bias with it though

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

I found the model i’m hugging. HREF mean at the end of the run. Upstate special

 

[Webberweather53]

Starting to get into range of some of the higher res CAMs. Here’s the RAP, looks very nam-esque

 

[iGRXY]

Starting to get into range of some of the higher res CAMs. Here’s the RAP, looks very nam-esque

View attachment 35235

The RAP is also warm biased as well is it not? Temperatures are around 36-39 degrees at 12z Thursday which is also very interesting.

 

[Cadi40]

If we can avoid the inevitable warm nose I’m confident the precip will follow along the NC/SC line.

 

[packfan98]

Starting to get into range of some of the higher res CAMs. Here’s the RAP, looks very nam-esque

View attachment 35235

So are there huge differences in the 5H setup between the NAM and Euro and the NAM is picking up on the frontogenesis resulting in more dynamic precip further north?

 

[superjames1992]

I'm not sure why some people are down on the 12z GGEM in the eastern half of NC. That was a good hit. Easily warning criteria, big hit for RDU. Not as good for CLT-GSO, though.

 

[NCSNOW]

Far out as it goes: Latest Run

 

[WxBlue]

I'm not sure why some people are down on the 12z GGEM in the eastern half of NC. That was a good hit. Easily warning criteria, big hit for RDU. Not as good for CLT-GSO, though.

Yep, that was a nice CCB whip. Don't underestimate how much snow CCB can put down as the coastal ejects out of the region. It's usually good for extra few inches of snow.

 

[SnowNiner]

Catching up, I'm coming to the conclusion that I don't buy the nam. Euro, Ukmet, RGEM are great models and are not on board. I think what the models overall are showing is that eastern NC gets a good snow hit out of the coastal after the energy hits the ocean and the low forms. I think the overrunning for western nc is going to be suppressed and won't amount to much. That's my current thought process.

If the RGEM comes on board then the nam would be more reasonable. But it being by itself on the full nc hit is just too much for me to believe at this point. Eastern NC seems like the best place to be. Euro/Ukmet not showing ANYTHING for mby, it's just tough for me to believe they're going to wiff on this one.

 

[packfan98]

12z Euro looks a little more amped than 0z.

 

[Webberweather53]

Precip is further north on this afternoon's 12z Euro


0z




12z

 

[Deleted member 1449]

blah--

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Welp..that’s a coastal transfer if I’ve ever seen one ??‍

 

[ajr]

So are there huge differences in the 5H setup between the NAM and Euro and the NAM is picking up on the frontogenesis resulting in more dynamic precip further north?

I wish I had a figure with more models, but most recent available comparison (00z) from meteocentre is below:

 

[Webberweather53]

Be very weary of the Euro & EPS precip type output & snowfall. There's a spurious dry layer in the low-levels although it's not as pronounced on today's run, but if it's actually legitimately precipitating (temp follows blue line on sounding) it would be snow.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Short range guidance over globales right now ... we can’t confidently use globales at this juncture

 

[NCCWOP9077]

Precip is further north on this afternoon's 12z Euro


0z

View attachment 35239


12z

View attachment 35240

I have a hard time agreeing with the Euro, could be wrong in the end but it showed pretty much what the NAM was showing a week ago, then it backed off, then back again with a storm. Apparently it's trying to catch up on the northern extent of the moisture. Inconsistent IMO

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[Deleted member 1449]

Just for kicks--the NAM has ~15" down east and the EC has pretty much nil. On the bright side, an average of the two wouldn't be bad.

 

[Webberweather53]

The RAP is also warm biased as well is it not? Temperatures are around 36-39 degrees at 12z Thursday which is also very interesting.

The RAP is actually cold biased in general, this bias played right into its hands for the big storm in GA earlier this month

 

[Deleted member 1449]

Short range guidance over globales right now ... we can’t confidently use globales at this juncture

The problem is, the only short range guidance showing a storm is from the NAM camp. Aside from the GFS/NAVGEM, there is no other support.

 

[CyclonicFury]

Is it possible that RDU could get a very light rain while southeastern NC gets snow because rates farther north would be too light to cool the column for snow to fall?

 

[SnowNiner]

Welp..that’s a coastal transfer if I’ve ever seen one ??‍View attachment 35242

Either the EURO is anything but the "King" anymore, OR, the NAM is still the NAM. The Euro is completely the opposite of the NAM 2 days from the event. Who you got?

 

[NCSNOW]

Miss the old EE take it to the bank . 60 hrs out it would send a tingle up ones leg to see the nam and euro bulls eyeing your back yard.

Im riding the ole red white and blue models to glory. Its never worked before verse the foreign, but what have I got to lose lol. The new and improved upgraded Nam is gonna hit one over the fence , just like a few days ago in north GA.

 

[SD]

Just for kicks--the NAM has ~15" down east and the EC has pretty much nil. On the bright side, an average of the two wouldn't be bad.

Yeah is crazy at 60 hours out to be that far apart. How far we've come

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Either the EURO is anything but the "King" anymore, OR, the NAM is still the NAM. The Euro is completely the opposite of the NAM 2 days from the event. Who you got?

Euro, Ukie, CMC, Icon...precip is going to be a problem in the interior Carolinas..NC mountains with a quick 2-4” hit of snow then the interior Carolinas get slotted before the coastal forms and hits the eastern 1/4th of NC with accumulating snow

 

[Stormdoc]

Is it possible that RDU could get a very light rain while southeastern NC gets snow because rates farther north would be too light to cool the column for snow to fall?

Yes, to an extent the Euro shows this scenario

 

[iGrey_X]

The problem is, the only short range guidance showing a storm is from the NAM camp. Aside from the GFS/NAVGEM, there is no other support.

Theres a few short range models that have been posted in this thread that look very similar to the NAM. The euro hasn’t been good with either light events this year and we are in the NAMs wheelhouse now.

 

[Webberweather53]

Here's the end of the RAP run:

?

 

[iGrey_X]

Here's the end of the RAP run:

?

View attachment 35247

What are the thermals for this? Thanks

 

[Webberweather53]

What are the thermals for this? Thanks

Keep in mind the RAP is usually cold biased but...

 

[packfan98]

If the new Euro is on the south end of the EPS for this 12z suite, there is still reason to be optimistic. I'm guessing by this time tomorrow the American models and Euro will meet in the middle and there will be a large area of at least .2" qpf. Obviously the eastern part of NC has the best look. When I look at the precip on the GFS with 48 hours to go and the way it's been trending, I have a hard time thinking it's going to look completely different than what it's showing currently.

 

[Cadi40]

Is the RAP a reliable model? If so I’d be very pleased with that outcome.

 

[Storm5]

Theres a few short range models that have been posted in this thread that look very similar to the NAM. The euro hasn’t been good with either light events this year and we are in the NAMs wheelhouse now.

I’ve been burned too many times by the NAM . I m not a believer it has a wheelhouse . The only thing I’ve seen it hit on before consistently are the thermals


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[KyloG]

I know this has been touched on...but this was the 0z EPS about 36 hours out from last weeks deal...I believe parts of N-GA received 6" of snow. Though, I suppose this setup is different.

Didn't go back and look at which model was most right 48-60 hours out...would be curious.

 

[Webberweather53]

Is the RAP a reliable model? If so I’d be very pleased with that outcome.

Usually no, but it out performed most NWP models w/ the most recent storm in GA

 

[LovingGulfLows]

Here's the end of the RAP run:

?

View attachment 35247

It's interesting how the RAP has more of a SW to NE orientation of the precip shield rather than W to E.