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Misc Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade

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Lol, I was picking post above, but you are so strong in believing that a maga storm will happen that you almost have me convince
I really hope we see something in that nature before time runs out.
I'm not trying to convince others to believe in my prediction, but if they want to support my prediction, by all means let them follow along...just saying in general. I am strongly believing in my prediction and I hope I am right. I'm not sure what others will think if my prediction comes true.
 
Here we go, first off, keep in mind what your about to read is not an official forecast nor an official prediction. This is not based off of no solid evidence from the models as of yet, but I'll be watching for some features on the models in the coming weeks. As I have said, I 'am indeed predicting a blizzard -- a 1 out of 200 year storm. The last historical snow storm about 200 years ago was the Great Snow Storm of 1831 that dumped snow from Georgia to Maine.

Onto my predictions for the Mega Snow Storm '20. I'm predicting that the storm will form south/south west south of Jamaica, roughly 17°N - 80°W. The storm develops from an area of thunder storms that move northeast from Honduras and Nicaragua. The Mega Snow Storm '20 will have hurricane characteristics. For a strong storm to develop over the ocean, there needs to be 3 main things --- warm water that's at least 80 degrees, there needs to be moist air (which will not be an issue) and there needs to be converging winds -- these 3 main things will be at play at the time the storm beings to develop.

The SSTs are above normal in the Caribbean, SSTs are in the lower 80s in the Caribbean. I think the storm system will track along the gulf stream, which the SSTs in the gulf stream are above normal as well. The above normal temps of the SSTs will fuel this storm just like a hurricane. According to my prediction, there will be prevailing winds from the ESE and from the west, converging winds that will spin this storm up. I also think there will be a phase, a short wave undercuts the northern stream -- the phase occurs off of the southeast coast. It's possible it could be a triple phase, if another short wave comes along in the southern stream...I don't know if there will be a triple phase.

SST Anomalies

View attachment 33752

Weather pattern: I think there will be a -EPO, +PNA with a PV lobe over the Upper Plains at the time of the storm, perhaps there will be a -AO as well. The strong storm will pull deep cold air on the northwestern and western side of the low -- snow will be in feet. On the map below, I also think there will be a weak Bermuda high. I know Bermuda highs can be concerning, cause it can cause south winds to warm the southeast. But in this case, I'm predicting that it would be a weak Bermuda high, and this Bermuda high will prevent the storm going out to sea. The time frame for this storm could be any where some time during the tail end of this month or by March 10th. That's all I have for my prediction for now.

View attachment 33754
Love it, but I’d like to see it go into the Gulf of Mexico and come across northern Florida
 
Here we go, first off, keep in mind what your about to read is not an official forecast nor an official prediction. This is not based off of no solid evidence from the models as of yet, but I'll be watching for some features on the models in the coming weeks. As I have said, I 'am indeed predicting a blizzard -- a 1 out of 200 year storm. The last historical snow storm about 200 years ago was the Great Snow Storm of 1831 that dumped snow from Georgia to Maine.

Onto my predictions for the Mega Snow Storm '20. I'm predicting that the storm will form south/south west south of Jamaica, roughly 17°N - 80°W. The storm develops from an area of thunder storms that move northeast from Honduras and Nicaragua. The Mega Snow Storm '20 will have hurricane characteristics. For a strong storm to develop over the ocean, there needs to be 3 main things --- warm water that's at least 80 degrees, there needs to be moist air (which will not be an issue) and there needs to be converging winds -- these 3 main things will be at play at the time the storm beings to develop.

The SSTs are above normal in the Caribbean, SSTs are in the lower 80s in the Caribbean. I think the storm system will track along the gulf stream, which the SSTs in the gulf stream are above normal as well. The above normal temps of the SSTs will fuel this storm just like a hurricane. According to my prediction, there will be prevailing winds from the ESE and from the west, converging winds that will spin this storm up. I also think there will be a phase, a short wave undercuts the northern stream -- the phase occurs off of the southeast coast. It's possible it could be a triple phase, if another short wave comes along in the southern stream...I don't know if there will be a triple phase.

SST Anomalies

View attachment 33752

Weather pattern: I think there will be a -EPO, +PNA with a PV lobe over the Upper Plains at the time of the storm, perhaps there will be a -AO as well. The strong storm will pull deep cold air on the northwestern and western side of the low -- snow will be in feet. On the map below, I also think there will be a weak Bermuda high. I know Bermuda highs can be concerning, cause it can cause south winds to warm the southeast. But in this case, I'm predicting that it would be a weak Bermuda high, and this Bermuda high will prevent the storm going out to sea. The time frame for this storm could be any where some time during the tail end of this month or by March 10th. That's all I have for my prediction for now.

View attachment 33754
Here’s what I’d like to see again,except that no one gets hurt of course:


During March 11 and 12, 1993, temperatures over much of the eastern United States began to drop as an arctic high pressure system built over the Midwest and Great Plains. Concurrently, an extratropical area of low pressure formed over Mexico along a stationary front draped west to east. By the afternoon of March 12, a defined airmass boundary was present along the deepening low. An initial burst of convective precipitation off the southern coast of Texas (facilitated by the transport of tropical moisture into the region) this presumably enabled initial intensification of the surface feature on March 12. Supported by a strong split-polar jet stream and a shortwave trough, the nascent system rapidly deepened.[6] The system's central pressure fell to 991 mbar (29.26 inHg) by 00:00 UTC on March 13. A powerful low-level jet over eastern Cuba and the Gulf of Mexico enhanced a cold frontextending from the low southward to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. Furthermore, the subtropical jet stream was displaced unusually far south, reaching into the Pacific Ocean near Central America and extending toward Honduras and Jamaica. Intense ageostrophic flow was noted over the southern United States, with winds flowing perpendicular to isobars over Louisiana.[6]

As the area of low pressure moved through the central Gulf of Mexico, a short wave trough in the northern branch of the jet stream fused with the system in the southern stream, which further strengthened the surface low. A squall linedeveloped along the system's cold front, which moved rapidly across the eastern Gulf of Mexico through Florida and Cuba.[6] The cyclone's center moved into north-west Florida early on the morning of March 13, with a significant storm surge in the northwestern Florida peninsula that drowned several people. This initially caused the storm to be a blizzard but also cyclonic.

Barometric pressures recorded during the storm were low. Readings of 976.0 millibars (28.82 inHg) were recorded in Tallahassee, Florida, and even lower readings of 960.0 millibars (28.35 inHg) were observed in New England. Low pressure records for March were set in areas of twelve states along the Eastern Seaboard,[7] with all-time low pressure records set between Tallahassee and Washington, D.C.[8] Snow began to spread over the eastern United States, and a large squall line moved from the Gulf of Mexico into Florida and Cuba. The storm system tracked up the East Coast during Saturday and into Canada by early Monday morning. In the storm's wake, unseasonably cold temperatures were recorded over the next day or two in the Southeast.
 
Can’t believe I still have snow left. Now to watch the rain wash it away. Are there any signs of getting out of this rain/flood pattern any time soon? Can’t get my barn, house or anything even started. Such a mess!! Walking backwards instead of forward! GRIEF!
 

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Here’s what I’d like to see again,except that no one gets hurt of course:


During March 11 and 12, 1993, temperatures over much of the eastern United States began to drop as an arctic high pressure system built over the Midwest and Great Plains. Concurrently, an extratropical area of low pressure formed over Mexico along a stationary front draped west to east. By the afternoon of March 12, a defined airmass boundary was present along the deepening low. An initial burst of convective precipitation off the southern coast of Texas (facilitated by the transport of tropical moisture into the region) this presumably enabled initial intensification of the surface feature on March 12. Supported by a strong split-polar jet stream and a shortwave trough, the nascent system rapidly deepened.[6] The system's central pressure fell to 991 mbar (29.26 inHg) by 00:00 UTC on March 13. A powerful low-level jet over eastern Cuba and the Gulf of Mexico enhanced a cold frontextending from the low southward to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. Furthermore, the subtropical jet stream was displaced unusually far south, reaching into the Pacific Ocean near Central America and extending toward Honduras and Jamaica. Intense ageostrophic flow was noted over the southern United States, with winds flowing perpendicular to isobars over Louisiana.[6]

As the area of low pressure moved through the central Gulf of Mexico, a short wave trough in the northern branch of the jet stream fused with the system in the southern stream, which further strengthened the surface low. A squall linedeveloped along the system's cold front, which moved rapidly across the eastern Gulf of Mexico through Florida and Cuba.[6] The cyclone's center moved into north-west Florida early on the morning of March 13, with a significant storm surge in the northwestern Florida peninsula that drowned several people. This initially caused the storm to be a blizzard but also cyclonic.

Barometric pressures recorded during the storm were low. Readings of 976.0 millibars (28.82 inHg) were recorded in Tallahassee, Florida, and even lower readings of 960.0 millibars (28.35 inHg) were observed in New England. Low pressure records for March were set in areas of twelve states along the Eastern Seaboard,[7] with all-time low pressure records set between Tallahassee and Washington, D.C.[8] Snow began to spread over the eastern United States, and a large squall line moved from the Gulf of Mexico into Florida and Cuba. The storm system tracked up the East Coast during Saturday and into Canada by early Monday morning. In the storm's wake, unseasonably cold temperatures were recorded over the next day or two in the Southeast.
The blizzard I'm predicting isn't going to be like that...in fact every severe winter storm are different. Each severe historical winter storm has their differences and severity. I'm thinking a trailing cold front will cause thunder storms in the Caribbean with converging winds.

In the mid term/long term, I think we'll see multiple late bloomers that form over the Gulf stream. Coastal regions and possibly further inland could have chances of frozen precipitation. I think this will be the case prior of the blizzard that I'm predicting. A cold front from on of those late bloomers would extend down into the Caribbean.
 
Here we go, first off, keep in mind what your about to read is not an official forecast nor an official prediction. This is not based off of no solid evidence from the models as of yet, but I'll be watching for some features on the models in the coming weeks. As I have said, I 'am indeed predicting a blizzard -- a 1 out of 200 year storm. The last historical snow storm about 200 years ago was the Great Snow Storm of 1831 that dumped snow from Georgia to Maine.

Onto my predictions for the Mega Snow Storm '20. I'm predicting that the storm will form south/south west south of Jamaica, roughly 17°N - 80°W. The storm develops from an area of thunder storms that move northeast from Honduras and Nicaragua. The Mega Snow Storm '20 will have hurricane characteristics. For a strong storm to develop over the ocean, there needs to be 3 main things --- warm water that's at least 80 degrees, there needs to be moist air (which will not be an issue) and there needs to be converging winds -- these 3 main things will be at play at the time the storm beings to develop.

The SSTs are above normal in the Caribbean, SSTs are in the lower 80s in the Caribbean. I think the storm system will track along the gulf stream, which the SSTs in the gulf stream are above normal as well. The above normal temps of the SSTs will fuel this storm just like a hurricane. According to my prediction, there will be prevailing winds from the ESE and from the west, converging winds that will spin this storm up. I also think there will be a phase, a short wave undercuts the northern stream -- the phase occurs off of the southeast coast. It's possible it could be a triple phase, if another short wave comes along in the southern stream...I don't know if there will be a triple phase.

SST Anomalies

View attachment 33752

Weather pattern: I think there will be a -EPO, +PNA with a PV lobe over the Upper Plains at the time of the storm, perhaps there will be a -AO as well. The strong storm will pull deep cold air on the northwestern and western side of the low -- snow will be in feet. On the map below, I also think there will be a weak Bermuda high. I know Bermuda highs can be concerning, cause it can cause south winds to warm the southeast. But in this case, I'm predicting that it would be a weak Bermuda high, and this Bermuda high will prevent the storm going out to sea. The time frame for this storm could be any where some time during the tail end of this month or by March 10th. That's all I have for my prediction for now.

View attachment 33754
6a9f4f2b2e7f46459712d08d4ae273ad.jpg
 
Here’s my prediction. It’s a 3 day storm meaning it has been happening every 3 days for the past 3 months. Low forms somewhere near the gulf. Heavy rain. Everyone gets rain. Possibly northern Wilkes getting some light onset ice which will warrant it’s own separate thread title. We will focus on details when we get there. Anyway, this will most likely happen on the weekend. Thats where the uncertainty lies right now. Will it rain during the work week or on the weekend? My money is on the weekend. Details to be worked out later
View attachment 33764
Boom shackalacka...hes on fire!!
 
Few token flakes falling at the onset of the system courtesy of webcam in Waynesville,NC.

 
Few token flakes falling at the onset of the system courtesy of webcam in Waynesville,NC.


Even though they’re reporting temperature approaching 50deg
 
I know some will think I'm crazy for predicting a blizzard (lol) -- a 1 out of 200 year storm. My prediction is a presentiment. No, I am absolutely not on drugs; I'm just a very intelligent thinker. I think hurricane season will start super early this season, and the blizzard I'm predicting will be basically an early hurricane, but with snow -- a snowcane.
 
I know some will think I'm crazy for predicting a blizzard (lol) -- a 1 out of 200 year storm. My prediction is a presentiment. No, I am absolutely not on drugs; I'm just a very intelligent thinker. I think hurricane season will start super early this season, and the blizzard I'm predicting will be basically an early hurricane, but with snow -- a snowcane.

So a Sandy 2.0?


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I know some will think I'm crazy for predicting a blizzard (lol) -- a 1 out of 200 year storm. My prediction is a presentiment. No, I am absolutely not on drugs; I'm just a very intelligent thinker. I think hurricane season will start super early this season, and the blizzard I'm predicting will be basically an early hurricane, but with snow -- a snowcane.
Everyone would love for you to be correct but until that day expect a lot of this talk....but all in good fun.
tenor (4).gif
 
So a Sandy 2.0?


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Yes, it could be similar in terms of strength, but not exact track. I'm predicting there would be severe weather with this storm, but the severe weather would be in FL. Storm surge/flooding would be the greatest concern for the coastal area's along the east coast.
 
Yes, it could be similar in terms of strength, but not exact track. I'm predicting there would be severe weather with this storm, but the severe weather would be in FL. Storm surge/flooding would be the greatest concern for the coastal area's along the east coast.

Sounds a lot like 93.


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Is a rain/snow gauge at an official weather station more accurate than multiple ground measurements from people area wide? CHA recorded 2.7 officially and no one, literally no one in the area measured less than three. I got right at 4, based on yard and car top measurements. Just curious, I know there needs to be a standard, but 2.7 just seems too low.
 
Looking for signs for the Mega Snow Storm '20 that I am predicting. Some of the members do indeed show a blizzard by late month. Just looking for signs, not details so please don't @ me saying, "it's just for the Mid Atlantic/Northeast." It's hard to see the Mega Snow Storm '20 on these maps... I needed a wider view. (I wish the GEFS members had a closer map of the Caribbean.)
da4c46a1a9c6304fdd5213b1094a423c.jpg


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Here we go, first off, keep in mind what your about to read is not an official forecast nor an official prediction. This is not based off of no solid evidence from the models as of yet, but I'll be watching for some features on the models in the coming weeks. As I have said, I 'am indeed predicting a blizzard -- a 1 out of 200 year storm. The last historical snow storm about 200 years ago was the Great Snow Storm of 1831 that dumped snow from Georgia to Maine.

Onto my predictions for the Mega Snow Storm '20. I'm predicting that the storm will form south/south west south of Jamaica, roughly 17°N - 80°W. The storm develops from an area of thunder storms that move northeast from Honduras and Nicaragua. The Mega Snow Storm '20 will have hurricane characteristics. For a strong storm to develop over the ocean, there needs to be 3 main things --- warm water that's at least 80 degrees, there needs to be moist air (which will not be an issue) and there needs to be converging winds -- these 3 main things will be at play at the time the storm beings to develop.

The SSTs are above normal in the Caribbean, SSTs are in the lower 80s in the Caribbean. I think the storm system will track along the gulf stream, which the SSTs in the gulf stream are above normal as well. The above normal temps of the SSTs will fuel this storm just like a hurricane. According to my prediction, there will be prevailing winds from the ESE and from the west, converging winds that will spin this storm up. I also think there will be a phase, a short wave undercuts the northern stream -- the phase occurs off of the southeast coast. It's possible it could be a triple phase, if another short wave comes along in the southern stream...I don't know if there will be a triple phase.

SST Anomalies

View attachment 33752

Weather pattern: I think there will be a -EPO, +PNA with a PV lobe over the Upper Plains at the time of the storm, perhaps there will be a -AO as well. The strong storm will pull deep cold air on the northwestern and western side of the low -- snow will be in feet. On the map below, I also think there will be a weak Bermuda high. I know Bermuda highs can be concerning, cause it can cause south winds to warm the southeast. But in this case, I'm predicting that it would be a weak Bermuda high, and this Bermuda high will prevent the storm going out to sea. The time frame for this storm could be any where some time during the tail end of this month or by March 10th. That's all I have for my prediction for now.

View attachment 33754


1581362258254.png
 
Looking for signs for the Maga Snow Storm '20 that I am predicting. Some of the members do indeed show a blizzard by late month. Just looking for signs, not details so please don't @ me saying, "it's just for the Mid Atlantic/Northeast." It's hard to see the Mega Snow Storm '20 on these maps... I needed a wider view. (I wish the GEFS members had a closer map of the Caribbean.)
da4c46a1a9c6304fdd5213b1094a423c.jpg


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A group photo of all the models and their ensembles that show something close to what your thoughts areemptyfield.jpg
 
I know some will think I'm crazy for predicting a blizzard (lol) -- a 1 out of 200 year storm. My prediction is a presentiment. No, I am absolutely not on drugs; I'm just a very intelligent thinker. I think hurricane season will start super early this season, and the blizzard I'm predicting will be basically an early hurricane, but with snow -- a snowcane.

I’m not saying your wrong by any means. But the idea of this makes me laugh. I hope it does happen though


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I know it is a bold strategy for sure. As you all know, I am not scared to make a prediction, regardless if the models are showing it or not.
If we could luck into some really entrenched cold air with a deep trough digging into the east and a status quo juicy wave that we seem to get every week for the past 3 months then a big blizzard measured in feet up the eastern seaboard is not out of the question. You could see how a soggy pattern like this could produce an anomalous late winter storm like the one you speak of. Record +AO dives into the negative spilling all of that cold air that has been trapped at the pole all winter into the US..use your imagination people
 
I’m not saying your wrong by any means. But the idea of this makes me laugh. I hope it does happen though


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Haha, I know my predictions make some laugh, while some may take it serious. Some will say, "that's just for entertainment," which is completely fine. I have a strong feeling that a blizzard will occur sometime during the tail end of this month or by March 10th that will about the same strength as the '93 blizzard or stronger. I am predicting that the low would be a 960-965mb off of the southeastern coast and strengthening to a 955mb at it's lowest.
 
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