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Misc Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade

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I have nothing to add so far today. I havent bought into the cold and still think the 12Z GEFS is full of poop too. How do we get deep cold with every single tele in the Arctic positive with no sign of that changing? Average, wet and zonal. Maybe we'll pull a miracle and get a storm. But probably not.

As for Feb well I don't know yet. Recent history tells me to forget about it, especially if we go into it with the MJO headed warm and strong consolidated tPV still. And here come the eternal optimists calling this ridiculous in 3,2,1....
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
But wait, there’s more ? we’re just getting started View attachment 31179
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Looks good for me.

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Snowless & Grumpy said:
I have nothing to add so far today. I havent bought into the cold and still think the 12Z GEFS is full of poop too. How do we get deep cold with every single tele in the Arctic positive with no sign of that changing? Average, wet and zonal. Maybe we'll pull a miracle and get a storm. But probably not.

As for Feb well I don't know yet. Recent history tells me to forget about it, especially if we go into it with the MJO headed warm and strong consolidated tPV still. And here come the eternal optimists calling this ridiculous in 3,2,1....
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We can still get cold with a -EPO, but it seems to have abandoned us this year too.
 
Rain Cold said:
We can still get cold with a -EPO, but it seems to have abandoned us this year too.
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Yep. Hopefully it doesn't decide to go on a decade long hiatus with the NAO. I really don't know how regardless of ENSO, QBO, SSWE's, low solar, MJO phase etc it stays positve. Something has to be causing it. If the EPO abandons ship we won't even be able to get a storm to track much less actually get one. We're already closing in on 14 months.
 
Just going to make it even sweeter when we get the snow at the end of the month.
 
Snowless & Grumpy said:
Yep. Hopefully it doesn't decide to go on a decade long hiatus with the NAO. I really don't know how regardless of ENSO, QBO, SSWE's, low solar, MJO phase etc it stays positve. Something has to be causing it. If the EPO abandons ship we won't even be able to get a storm to track much less actually get one. We're already closing in on 14 months.
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It's like I've said, I really don't think we understand nearly as much as we think we do about this stuff and how it all works together. I don't mean to say we shouldn't try. But next year, when I hear someone talking about rooting for an easterly QBO or a weakening of an IOD or hoping we stay away from a -MVP, I'm just going to laugh internally and forecast warmth for the eastern US.
 
Snowless & Grumpy said:
I have nothing to add so far today. I havent bought into the cold and still think the 12Z GEFS is full of poop too. How do we get deep cold with every single tele in the Arctic positive with no sign of that changing? Average, wet and zonal. Maybe we'll pull a miracle and get a storm. But probably not.

As for Feb well I don't know yet. Recent history tells me to forget about it, especially if we go into it with the MJO headed warm and strong consolidated tPV still. And here come the eternal optimists calling this ridiculous in 3,2,1....
Click to expand...


I will admit I started to get bought into it, but i just knew the other shoe was going to drop somewhere. Now it's almost comical in a way to keep watching the neg epo vanish inside 240.
 
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